WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PART 2:

April 1998

This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-337) April 9, 1998.

The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.

We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on May 13, 1998.

WEATHER BRIEFS

SOUTH AMERICA: ISOLATED RAINS CAUSED COTTON QUALITY PROBLEMS

During February 1998, near-to above-normal rainfall provided ample moisture for filling summer crops across Argentina and southern Brazil. Temperatures for the month averaged above normal. During the first week of March, dry weather benefitted maturing cotton across northern Argentina and Paraguay. During March 8 - 14, heavy showers across northern Argentina and Paraguay, possibly damaged maturing cotton and slowed harvesting. Rainfall during March 15 - 21, was less frequent and lighter than the previous week in the cotton areas and therefore maintained good cotton quality and favored maturation. During March 22 - 28, rainfall in the cotton area varied from 10 to 50 millimeters. The heavier rainfall caused some delay of cotton harvest. From March 29 through April 4, isolated heavy showers slowed cotton harvest in extreme northern Argentina and southern Paraguay, but late week dry weather reduced the negative impact.

EUROPE: RAPESEED GROWING AREAS OVERWINTERED WELL

During early February 1998, a brief episode of bitterly cold weather prevailed over northeastern Europe. The cold spell was followed by mild weather which lasted from February 8 to months end. Mild weather continued across northern Europe during the first week of March. Temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees C above normal. Widespread rain benefitted canola and winter grains in extreme northern France, the Benelux countries, across Germany and into Poland. The streak of mild weather ended during the week of March 8 - 14, when unseasonably cool weather prevailed over Europe. Light rain accompanied the cooler weather and delayed spring field work. During March 15 - 21, western Europe experience mild weather, while colder weather remained entrenched in northern and eastern Europe. From March 22 - 28, cooler weather returned to northern France, Germany, and northern Italy. That week cold weather continued in the canola and winter grain areas of eastern Europe. Not only did the cold delay crop development, but cool soil temperatures caused planting progress delays. During March 29 through April 4, warm temperatures returned to Europe. While heavy rain fell across western France, the more extensive French canola growing areas of eastern France were becoming dry. This dry pattern continued to dominate eastern Europe, although light showers were scattered across Poland and its neighbors. Temperatures averaged near to above normal across Europe, with warmth moving from west to east as the week progressed.

PHILIPPINES: DROUGHT CONTINUES

During February 1998, drought worsened in the Philippines. During the month, the eastern Philippines received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall. During the first two weeks of March, below-normal rainfall (less than 30 millimeters per week) provided little drought relief for the eastern Philippines. During March 15 - 25, rainfall was even lighter than recent weeks in eastern Philippines, with weekly amounts barely reaching 10 millimeters. Northern and southern Philippines were completely dry. Scattered showers (10 - 50 millimeters, with isolated amounts greater than 100 millimeters) provided some drought relief to the eastern Philippines during March 22 - 28. During March 29 through April 4, rainfall was more widespread across the eastern Philippines, again providing drought relief, however, amounts were lower than the prior week. Typically, April is the month when the Northeast Monsoon ends and the Southwest Monsoon starts, foreshadowing the beginning of main-season rice planting.

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

ARGENTINA: CORN OUTPUT SOARS ON INCREASED INPUTS AND IDEAL WEATHER

Corn production is forecast at a record 18.5 million tons, up 2.0 million or 12 percent from last month, and up 3.0 million or 19 percent from the previous record harvested last year. Harvested area is forecast at 3.4 million hectares, the same as last year. As of April 6, the corn was 21 percent harvested, very near the five-year average. Harvest progress is most advanced in the Entre Rios and Santa Fe Provinces. Quality is reported to be very good. Yield is forecast to eclipse last year's record. Factors which have contributed to the large increase include improved hybrids, increased fertilizer use, better overall farming practices, and near-ideal weather during the growing season. Reportedly, a significant portion of seeds planted this year were of a new hybrid, described as a semi-dent corn which, according to some sources, has a higher yield potential than hybrids previously grown. While some analysts believe that the crop could be larger than the current estimates, it should be noted that some of the remaining areas in southern Buenos Aires have been dryer and may yield lower than average.

ARGENTINA: RAINS REDUCE OILSEED YIELDS AS HARVEST NEARS

Argentina sunflowerseed production is estimated lower at 5.2 million tons, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from last month, and equaling the output of last year. Harvested area is forecast at 3.1 million hectares, up 7 percent from last year. The production forecast for the sunflowerseed crop has been reduced over the past three months, from a high of 6.0 million tons, due to excessive rainfall. Heavy rains and wind in Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and northern Buenos Aires damaged the mature crop during the harvest. As of April 6, the crop was 71 percent harvested and reported yields have been disappointing. The crop is characterized by immature light flowers, poorly-filled seeds, and the presence of various diseases. Much of what remains to be harvested is in the main production area in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa which was spared some of the heaviest rains that caused problems to the north. Yields in this region will determine the final overall size of the crop.

Cottonseed production for 1997/98 is estimated at 700,000 tons, down 100,000 or a reduction of 13 percent from last month, but up 25 percent from last year. The primary cotton-producing area in Chaco and Northern Santa Fe has been plagued with heavy late-season rains. This has resulted in vast flooding, and an excess of soil moisture and humidity in the lower canopy. According to reports, this has resulted in weak plants with few bolls, with bolls being small and often rotten, especially on the lower parts of plants. Some sources estimate that over 100,000 hectares in the hardest hit areas may be abandoned due to low yields. A combination of late plantings, slow development, and water-saturated fields has caused harvest to lag well behind normal. Assuming normal weather, harvest should be in full swing by mid-May.

Peanut production in Argentina is forecast at a record 750,000 tons, up 150,000 or 25 percent from last month, and up 450,000 or 150 percent from last year. The dramatic increase is largely due to a upward revision in area from 350,000 hectares to 410,000, but also reflects a higher yield. Peanuts appear not to have been damaged by rain as have sunflowers and cotton further to the north.

UNITED STATES: CROP CONDITION AND PROGRESS

Cold weather slowed winter wheat development in the central Great Plains and Southeast early in March. Considerable leaf burn resulted from a mid-month blast of cold air that brought sub-zero temperatures as far south as Kansas. However, permanent damage from the strong winds and freezing temperatures was expected to be minor. Farther north, snow cover helped protect the crop from the windy, cold conditions. As the cold air retreated, growth resumed, accelerating late in March when record high temperatures pushed northward into the High Plains. By the end of the month, over half of the crop had reached the jointing stage in Oklahoma, and the crop was beginning to head in Texas and Louisiana.

Warm, dry weather during the last week of March allowed farmers in the Corn Belt and northern Plains to begin spring tillage operations. Some oats were seeded in Illinois, and Colorado producers made good progress on their small grain seedings. In the Southeast, rain caused flooding, delaying corn planting and keeping farmers out of their fields until late in the month. In Georgia, a few cotton and soybean fields remained unharvested from last year's crop. Corn planting accelerated during the final week of the month, but remained behind normal. A sugarcane plant in Florida expected to remain in operation until April to finish processing the late-harvested crop.

The Pacific Coast States began March with a continuation of below-normal temperatures, but the earlier stormy pattern abated in California and allowed fieldwork to resume in most areas. Most small grain and alfalfa fields recovered from earlier flooding, but some low-lying wheat and barley fields remained wet and growth was stunted. Some cotton was planted in the San Joaquin Valley, but soil temperatures were still too low in most areas.

FORMER SOVIET UNION: WEATHER AND CROP DEVELOPMENTS

In March, unseasonably mild weather early in the month in Russia, Ukraine, the Baltics, and Belarus was followed by a pattern of unusually cold weather that began around March 10 and persisted until month's end. The colder weather pattern was accompanied by snow, producing an unusually late snow cover as far south as the Black Sea Coast and keeping winter grains dormant in most areas. Above-normal precipitation occurred in most areas in March, with over twice the normal amount of moisture falling in the eastern half of Ukraine and a large portion of Russia. The cold, wet weather pattern halted early-spring grain planting in southern Ukraine and the North Caucasus region in Russia. Last year (1997), a similar cold spell occurred in March in Ukraine and Russia, interrupting spring grain planting.

Since April 1, a warming trend occurred over Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics, melting the unusually late snow cover. By April 8, most of Ukraine, southern Russia (North Caucasus, southern Black Soils Region, and lower Volga Valley), the Baltics, and Belarus were snow-free. The warming trend likely promoted greening of winter grains in the southern half of Ukraine and the western North Caucasus region. Elsewhere, winter grains remained dormant. Spring grain planting is likely off to a slow start in Ukraine and Russia due to persistent cold weather. However, substantial time remains for planting which typically occurs in April and May.

FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES

WORLD SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

World soybean production for 1997/98 is estimated at a record 152.2 million tons, up 20.6 million or 16 percent from 1996/97. Higher levels of global demand led to favorable prices and increased soybean area and production in many countries. (See table 12 of this circular for country and regional area, yield, and production estimates.)

The current crop in South America which is being harvested has benefitted greatly from plentiful and timely rainfall. Drought hurt crop prospects in China and Indonesia, but favorable weather occurred in the United States and India.

Brazil: The Brazilian soybean crop should set another production record this year. The harvest is currently underway, and output is estimated at 30.0 million tons in 1997/98, up 12 percent from 1996/97. Area harvested also is projected to be a record 12.9 million hectares, up 9 percent from last year. Basic factors which underlie the record soybean production include: high international and domestic prices for last year's crop, which influenced grower planting decisions in favor of soybeans; increased government financing for planting loans, especially for growers in the Center-West; increased use of inputs because of the better overall financial condition of farmers; the planting of new lands to soybeans along Brazil's agricultural frontier; improved transportation infrastructure, especially waterways; and, the elimination of the value-added tax on soybeans, which has resulted in increased returns to growers. Favorable weather, with plentiful and timely rainfall in most growing areas, is given much of the credit for record yields.

Argentina: Soybean output in Argentina for 1997/98 is projected at a record 16.0 million tons, up 43 percent from a drought reduced crop in 1996/97. A record harvested area of 6.8 million hectares and a record yield of 2.35 tons per hectare are forecast. This is an increase of 10 percent in area and 30 percent in yield over 1996/97. Favorable soybean prices at planting combined with favorable economic conditions in the farm sector were important in increasing area. Timely rainfall was perhaps the most important factor in the favorable outlook for yields, but the adoption of improved technology, such as increased use of genetically modified soybeans, and a reduction in the amount of second crop soybeans (double-cropped soybeans planted after wheat) were also factors. Though official estimates for this year's crop do not currently exist, it is believed by some that the percentage of soybeans which were double cropped was down from around 40 percent in 1996/97, to around 30 percent in 1997/98. Dry weather is now desirable to promote favorable conditions for the harvest.

Paraguay: Production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 2.9 million tons, up 7 percent from 1996/97. Conditions have been generally good during the majority of the growing season. However, dry spells in two districts (Misiones and San Pedro) and disease problems have had some negative effect. The result is that total output in 1997/98 is projected somewhat below potential. Area is estimated to be 1.3 million hectares, up 8 percent from last year, while yield is forecast at 2.2 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from 1996/97.

China: In China, soybean output for 1997/98 is estimated at 13.8 million tons, up 4 percent from 1996/97. However, potential output was substantially reduced by drought in the North China Plain and parts of northeastern China. Yield is estimated at 1.67 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from 1996/97, while area is estimated up 10 percent, at 8.3 million hectares. There was a significant shift in planted area from corn to soybeans in northeastern China in 1997/98, but output was curtailed by drought which resulted in poor germination, blossom drop, and poor pod fill. Because corn production was hurt by the drought more severely than soybean production, there will be no incentive to shift additional corn area into soybeans in 1998/99.

India: Soybean production in India for 1997/98 is estimated at a record 5.4 million tons, up 30 percent from 1996/97. The high output is attributed mostly to a high-average yield which is estimated at 0.96 tons per hectare, up 16 percent from 1996/97. Production increases occurred in Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean growing state, and also in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Ideal weather, most notably well distributed rainfall, was cited as the major contributing factor for the near record yields. Area increased 12 percent in 1997/98, to 5.60 million hectares. Prospects for the upcoming 1998/99 crop depend on the monsoon rains which normally begin in June.

Indonesia: Soybean output in Indonesia for 1997/98 is forecast at 1.4 million tons, unchanged from 1996/97, but down from 1.5 million tons in 1995/96. Less than normal rainfall during the dry season associated with El Nino and a delayed onset to the rainy season, from September to November 1997, reduced area during the dry season in 1996/97 and reduced area during the rainy season in 1997/98. Farmers are expected to substitute rice for soybeans in the first half of 1997/98 as they try to boost rice production since rice output also was reduced by the drought. Harvested area in 1997/98 is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, down marginally from 1996/97. Yield is estimated at a record 1.22 tons per hectare which follows an upward yield trend.

Canada: Soybean production for 1997/98 is estimated at 2.7 million tons, up 25 percent from a year earlier. Development of increased crushing capacity has encouraged domestic production. Area harvested increased 22 percent, to 1.1 million hectares in 1997/98. Favorable prices and poor planting conditions for winter wheat in the fall of 1996 and for corn in the spring of 1997 limited area planted. Domestic demand for the 1998/99 crop likely will remain strong, but better planting conditions for alternative crops and lower world prices will likely be negative factors for the 1998/99 crop. Area and Production estimates for the 1998/99 oilseeds crop will be made available in July 1998.

United States: Soybean production for the 1997/98 crop is estimated by the National Agricultural Statistics Service at a record 74.2 million tons, up 14 percent from 1996/97. Production is estimated higher based on increased area and yield. Harvested area increased 10 percent, to 28.3 million hectares, while yield climbed 4 percent, to 2.6 tons per hectare. Growing conditions for the crop were generally favorable. Drought conditions during mid-summer caused crop stress in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The average planting date for 1997/98 was well ahead of the previous two years and the soybean harvest progressed slightly ahead of the five-year-average.

Paul Provance, Oilseeds Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0882
E-mail: provance@fas.usda.gov

SOUTH AFRICA 1997/98 GRAIN SITUATION

The outlook for South Africa's 1997/98 grain and oilseed production is good. Widespread, timely rainfall and warm temperatures in February and March boosted the yield potential for all summer crops, which mostly are now reaching maturity and will be harvested over the next two months. Farmers had reduced planted area for many crops in response to forecasts of drought associated with El Nino, but the weather was better than expected. Planting conditions for 1998/99 winter crops are favorable.

Corn Situation: Corn production for 1997/98 is estimated at 8.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month, but down 1.0 million or 11 percent from last year. This includes an estimated 7.5 million tons from the commercial sector and 0.5 million from the developing areas. The forecast yield of 2.76 tons per hectare is above the 5-year average and higher than last year. Contrary to many early forecasts, the effect of the 1997/98 El Niño on South Africa's corn yields appears minimal.

Corn area is estimated at 2.9 million hectares, down 460,000 hectares or 14 percent from last year. Dryness in November and December caused planting delays in Free State and North West Province, and fears of El Nino-related drought in 1998 caused farmers in many areas to reduce corn area or shift to drought-tolerant crops. The corn crop is normally divided about equally between white corn, used for human consumption, and yellow varieties, used primarily for animal feed. This year, farmers chose to maintain white corn area near last year's level and cut back on yellow corn area. About 60 percent of the total corn area is planted to white corn. Heavy rainfall in late-December and early January improved moisture conditions considerably, encouraging a surge of yellow corn planting in Free State and Northwest. There were concerns that a drought in February or an early frost in April would limit the yield potential of this late-planted corn, but the weather has been favorably wet and warm during the growing season and good yields are predicted.

South Africa's recent conversion to a free market for corn is still causing uncertainty for South African farmers. The end of the controlled marketing system for corn and the closing of the Maize Board opened up the domestic market to international competition, and also took away the one-channel marketing system which guaranteed farmers a minimum price for their crop. It exposed the producer to international price levels and they responded by planting a higher percentage of white corn , which can be sold for a higher price on the domestic market.

Wheat Situation: Wheat production in 1997/98 is estimated at 2.3 million tons, down from an average crop of 2.5 million. The crop was of poor quality due to heavy rain during the harvest. Planting for the 1998/99 wheat crop will begin over the next few months. South Africa's Winter Grain Producers Organization has warned farmers to be cautious when they plant wheat this year. The wheat situation is uncertain because of large carryover stocks, large imports of high-quality wheat, and a poor price outlook. However, the current high soil moisture levels may tempt farmers to plant more wheat this winter, leading to a local oversupply situation next year.

The domestic wheat market is still adjusting to deregulation after decades of state control. The Wheat Board, which had been the sole buyer and marketer of wheat for many years, closed at the end of last season in October.

Other Crops: Dry weather in December caused a drop in sorghum and peanut area, but farmers increased their plantings of sunflowers and soybeans, which are considered to be more tolerant to drought. The area of horticulture crops and cotton was not expected to change significantly since these crops are grown under irrigation and water supplies were sufficient. Normal to above-normal oilseed yields are projected due to favorable weather.

South Africa: Grain Production

Paulette Sandene, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0133
E-mail: sandene@fas.usda.gov

1998/99 WINTER GRAIN PROSPECTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES

This article presents early indications of Northern Hemisphere winter grain prospects outside the United States based on reports from U.S. agricultural attaches stationed overseas and analysis by Washington-based USDA personnel. A special thanks goes to the World Agricultural Outlook Board/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility who have continually supplied FAS with world agricultural weather information and analyses. The first forecast of 1998/99 area, yield, and production for grains will be published in the May "World Agricultural Production" Circular.

SUMMARY: Total winter grain area for 1998/99, outside of the United States, most likely will be similar to the level achieved last season. In the European Union (EU), area is projected higher for winter wheat, but lower for barley due to strong wheat prices relative to barley. Crop prospects are favorable except in Portugal and Spain where excessive rain during the fall delayed or prevented planting.

For Eastern Europe, area is projected lower as rain and snow along with cold temperatures in late-October and early-November delayed winter grain plantings in southeastern Europe. Also, there were numerous harvest problems with the 1997 crop, leading to quality problems and low prices. Initial crop prospects are likely below last season's level. In Russia, winter grain area is reported to be near last season's level, although above-normal precipitation in the fall of 1997 in southern Russia hampered plantings. With the exception of a cold snap in mid-December overwintering conditions were generally favorable for grain. In Ukraine, winter grain area is projected below last season's level due to untimely rain and a delayed harvest of a bumper corn crop. Unseasonably cold fall weather limited crop establishment of late-planted winter grains. After a mild winter, cool temperatures overspread Ukraine in mid-March causing winter grains to remain dormant, and an adequate snow cover reportedly kept winterkill below-average. Yield prospects are generally favorable for Russia, but down for Ukraine.

For India, excessive rain in the Fall caused planting delays and limited area to below grower's intentions. However, cool, mild weather across the main northern growing areas during the spring improved crop prospects. In Pakistan, area is reportedly higher than last season and crop prospects are favorable. In spite of excessive rainfall at planting which caused localized flooding, the crop benefitted from cool temperatures and timely rains. In China, area is expected to be similar to last season. The fall of 1997 was drier-than-normal in some parts of the North China Plain, but the combination of above-normal winter rain and a mild winter favored crops. Initial yield prospects are seen below last season's record level.

In the Middle East, grain area is projected to be similar in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Crop prospects are generally favorable across the region. In Northwest Africa, area is projected above last season's drought reduced level. Favorable rainfall at planting allowed producers to expand area; however, a drying trend since January across the region has stressed crops. Crop prospects are guarded and timely rainfall is needed for the remainder of the growing season to prevent further decline in crop conditions.

In Canada, crop prospects are favorable for winter wheat due to a mild winter. Winter wheat area is higher for 1998/99, but comprises less than 5 percent of the total Canadian wheat crop. In Mexico, area is projected higher than last season and irrigation supplies appear to be near last season's level.

European Union (EU): Winter grain area for 1998/99 in the EU likely will be slightly higher than last season. Due to relatively strong wheat prices versus barley, producers are expected move some of their area from barley into wheat. In the United Kingdom, Germany, and France winter wheat area increased again this season and crop prospects are favorable. Moisture conditions during the Fall of 1997 in the northern half of Europe was favorable for winter crop planting and establishment. A unusually mild winter provided favorable overwintering conditions. Although topsoils in France are slightly drier than normal, moisture over the rest of northern Europe is favorable for spring growth. In Italy, winter wheat plantings are higher than last season; however, a lack of planting moisture in the Po Valley lowered emergence prospects and limited moisture for plant establishment. The winter was mild, but continued below-normal rainfall in the Po Valley limited soil moisture recharge. Spring rains are needed to improve crop potential. In Spain and Portugal, winter grain area is lower than last season since excessively wet weather prevented some planned winter grain plantings in the Fall. Wet weather continued in December, causing further delays in winter grain plantings and localized flooding. Although a drying trend in February and early March raised concerns about potential declines in crop conditions, scattered showers fell in this region in late March. In Sweden and Finland, area is projected higher and the growing season has been generally favorable to date.

EASTERN EUROPE: For Eastern Europe, winter grain sowings for 1998/99 are projected much lower than last year. In Poland, winter grain area is marginally below a year ago. Planting conditions were generally favorable, but bitter cold temperatures (December 17 - 19) threatened winter crops. The extreme cold was of short duration and was preceded by snow, which minimized widespread damage. Mostly favorable weather followed through the balance of winter and into early-spring. Crop prospects are favorable. In Romania winter grain area is lower than last season as unusually cold weather along with an early snowfall stalled planting. Dry weather, a lack of available funds and planting machinery contributed to significant planting delays in Bulgaria. In December, the same cold weather event that hit Poland also affected Romania and Bulgaria; however, no significant damage was reported. While the remainder of winter was mild, rainfall was below-normal. Crop prospects are generally well below earlier levels. For the Czech Republic, winter grain area is projected up from last season, and crop prospects are generally favorable following a mild winter. In Hungary and Yugoslavia, area is similar to or slightly below last season. In Hungary, crop prospects are guarded owing to a dry fall and an abnormally dry winter. In Yugoslavia, winter grain prospects are likely below last season's level, due to planting delays, input shortages, and weak prices.

FSU: Russian winter grain area for 1998/99 is expected to roughly matched last season's 13.0 million hectares, and less re-seeding will be necessary because of lower winterkill. Establishment and over-wintering conditions were generally favorable, with adequate moisture. There was a brief episode of bitterly cold weather in mid-December in southern Russia which likely caused some damage in areas where snow cover was patchy, but this was limited. Russia's Federal Weather Center reported that overall winterkill for the country was only 8 to 10 percent of total sown winter grain area compared to nearly 13 percent last season. Heavy rains in February caused flooding in Russia's Krasnodar Kray and damaged some of the crop.

Winter grain yields will hinge on weather conditions in coming weeks, but will be pressed to match last year's level, when winter grain yield was the highest in five years. Application of fertilizer and plant-protection agents likely will remain at below-optimum levels, as farmers continue to struggle with cash shortages. Furthermore, plantings fell nearly 20 percent in the high-yielding North Caucasus Region because wet weather interfered with the final stages of the fall sowing campaign.

In Ukraine, winter grain area for 1998/99 is forecast much lower than last year. October rainfall and the delayed harvest of a bumper corn crop impeded winter grain planting during the final stages of the sowing campaign, and sown area fell considerably short of the 8-million-hectare target. Winter wheat typically comprises roughly 90 percent of winter grain area. Reports from the U.S. agricultural counselor in Kiev indicate that winterkill was above normal this season in Ukraine's southern, eastern, and central grain-growing areas. Winter barley in southern Ukraine was especially hard hit by the December cold snap, with damage estimated at 400,000 hectares. According to the agricultural counselor, yields are expected to be down sharply from last year due largely to the continuing deterioration in the availability of inputs, and growers inability to purchase them.

INDIA: In India, winter grain sowings for 1998/99 are projected below last season's record level. The 1998 wheat planting got off to a poor start due to heavy rains in the entire wheat belt during the optimal planting period of November through mid-December. Almost 40 percent of planting took place in late-December and stretched into January. In some parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, planting was delayed until late-January due to continuous rains and water logging. Cyclones during the first week of December and hail storms in eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Bihar caused some damage to the newly planted wheat and other rabi crops (pulses, oilseeds) thereby necessitating re-planting. Most of the decline in area is confined to the state of Bihar. Delayed planting earlier in the season and slower crop development, due to below average temperatures in February and March, will delay grain filling. There was much concern earlier that the grain filling stage would overlap with the period of higher temperatures and reduce yields. However, the growing period has remained relatively mild and crop prospects have improved.

PAKISTAN: Winter grain output for 1998/99 in Pakistan is projected to be larger than last season. Crop prospects are favorable due to increased use of phosphatic fertilizer, better seeding rate, and unprecedented favorable weather at the initial stages of crop development. One setback this season was the delayed planting of wheat in 10 percent of the growing areas due to delays in harvesting earlier crops in the rotation. The wheat crop to be harvested between March and May of 1998 was planted with above normal soil moisture reserves and received additional favorable winter rains. These widespread and timely rains of 1998 have resulted in an exceptionally good crop stand in the rainfed areas, comprising of 16 percent of Pakistan's wheat area. Relatively low temperatures up to the first week of March were conducive for tillering of late-planted crops. From now until the harvest, a very gradual increase in temperature and a reduction in the intensity of rainfall are required for optimum grain filling. In general, the number of tillers per plant are significantly above normal this year, indicating good yield prospects.

CHINA: Wheat area in China for 1998/99 is projected to be similar to last season, although there are reports of some farmers shifting their wheat area into rapeseed. Winter wheat planting was delayed by a dryness in the autumn of 1997 that affected more than ten million hectares of farmland in northern and central China, and low soil moisture availability resulted in poor germination in several areas. Widespread rain in November improved crop conditions prior to dormancy, but tillers were reported in weaker condition than last year. Winter temperatures were generally mild. The only outbreak of extremely cold weather occurred in mid-January, when the crops were fully dormant and protected from damage. Temperatures quickly rebounded, and unusually warm weather in February caused winter grains to emerge from dormancy seven to ten days ahead of schedule. Widespread rainfall in February and March provided beneficial moisture for emerging and vegetative crops across the northern plains, although western winter grain areas remained drier than normal through March. Central China received unusually heavy rain throughout the winter and spring, leading to concerns about possible flooding, water logging, and disease. The region also was affected by a late-March cold spell which brought sub-freezing temperatures as far south as the Yangtze River and caused minor damage to winter crops. Overall yield prospects for 1998/99 are good given normal temperatures and rainfall during the critical months of April and May. About 80 percent of the total wheat crop is irrigated to some extent and approximately 90 percent of all wheat is winter wheat.

NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: The 1998/99 crop area in Northwestern Africa is projected to be larger than last season's drought-reduced level. However, after favorable planting conditions, the weather turned unfavorable for the crops. Above-normal rainfall in Morocco's northern growing regions allowed for widespread planting of the winter grain crops and allowed producers to achieve their planting intentions. However, insufficient precipitation since February has diminished soil moisture reserves and stressed the crop. In western and central Algeria, adequate planting moisture was followed by dry conditions which have prevailed since December. Above average conditions in eastern Algeria will not offset the poor outlook for the wheat and barley crops. Tunisian farmers were encouraged by early-season rainfall and managed to increase plantings significantly over last year's levels. Scattered, light precipitation throughout the growing season has helped Tunisia to maintain a more favorable crop outlook than in neighboring countries. The Northwest African winter grain crop is in the critical heading stage during March and April. April weather patterns will be crucial for the recovery of an already stressed crop.

MIDDLE EAST: Winter grain area in Saudi Arabia for 1998/99 is projected to be similar to last year's level. Although the Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization (GSFMO) has reportedly not announced wheat and barley quotas for this production season, it is expected to remain unchanged. GSFMO policy over the past few years has been to target wheat production to meet domestic needs only. Producers are not expected to meet the barley quota due to a narrowing gap between production support prices and production costs. The crops are primarily grown by small-scale farmers and are 100 percent irrigated. Harvest extends from the end of April into June. For Turkey, winter grain area is projected up slightly from a year ago. Wheat area will most likely expand at the expense of barley due to higher support prices for wheat and reduced pest problems. About 40 percent of the wheat crop is grown in Central Anatolia, and the remainder spread throughout the country. Evenly distributed rainfall and near normal temperatures aided crop plantings and establishment. Relatively warm and adequate to abundant moisture since autumn also was beneficial for the crop. However, a cold snap in late-March caused some burn back in western Turkey. Crop prospects are generally favorable at this time, and rainfall from now until May is the single most important determinant of yield. In Syria, winter grain area is projected lower than last year. Rainfall at planting was adequate and the winter was relatively mild. However, since January at drying trend is causing concern for yield prospects. A warm-up of temperatures in late-February followed by freezing weather in March has put additional pressure on the wheat and barley crops. About 40 percent of the wheat is irrigated, producing about 70 percent of the crop, while nearly all the barley is rainfed. Precipitation and a return to normal temperatures is needed to prevent further crop stress.

NORTH AMERICA: In Canada, the 1998/99 winter wheat area is reportedly higher than last season due to good fall planting conditions, a return to wheat after rotations were disrupted by fusarium problems, and a normal (not delayed) soybean harvest. The crops experienced a mild winter and only minimal winterkill is expected. (The northern fringe of the growing area in Ontario had a cold weather event in March, but is not expected to have caused much damage.) The winter wheat crop comprises less than 5 percent of Canada's total wheat crop. The Prairie Provinces are dependent upon spring rainfall to provide soil moisture for the summer crops. In Mexico, the 1998/99 wheat area is projected to be larger than last season due to favorable autumn weather. Rainfall in the northwest during the fall was above normal, which maintained reservoir levels. However, reservoir levels remain relatively low due to previous seasons below-normal rainfall. Rainfall was normal throughout the winter in the northwest, but below normal in the central plateau of Mexico. March rainfall has been below normal throughout the wheat growing areas and additional rainfall is needed in April for normal crop development. About 70 percent of the total wheat area is spring-harvested and grown in the north.