WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PART 1:
April 1998
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-337) April 9, 1998.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on May 13, 1998.
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
April 1998
WHEAT
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 609.8 | +0.6 | +0 | +5 | Production is estimated at a record level due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 68.8 | NC | NC | +11 | Production is unchanged from last month. |
| Total Foreign | 541.0 | +0.6 | +0 | +4 | Production is estimated at a record due to increases in Argentina, Romania, and Morocco. |
| Argentina | 14.5 | +0.2 | +1 | -9 | Production is estimated up based on harvest progress reports indicating higher yield. |
| Romania | 7.2 | +0.2 | +3 | +127 | Production is estimated higher based on official statistics indicating an increase in yield. |
| Morocco | 2.3 | +0.2 | +10 | -61 | Production is revised higher due to an increase in yield. Harvest was completed during the spring of 1997. |
COARSE GRAINS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 898.9 | +2.4 | +0 | -1 | Production is projected higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 265.4 | NC | NC | -1 | Production is unchanged from last month. |
| Total Foreign | 633.5 | +2.4 | +0 | -1 | Production is estimated higher as increases in Argentina, South Africa, Egypt, Hungary, Thailand, Baltic States, and Morocco more than offset deceases in Mexico, Colombia, EU-15, India, and Turkey. |
| Argentina | 23.6 | +2.3 | +11 | +24 | Production is estimated at a record as favorable weather and increased use of high yielding varieties boosted corn yield to a record. Also, sorghum is revised higher. |
| South Africa | 8.5 | +0.5 | +6 | -10 | Production is estimated higher as favorable rainfall and moderate temperatures increased corn yield potential. |
Coarse Grains, continued
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| Egypt | 6.9 | +0.3 | +5 | +5 |
Production is estimated higher as an increase in corn yield more than offset a decline in harvested area. |
| Hungary | 8.1 | +0.2 | +3 | +15 |
Production is estimated higher due to harvest results indicating higher corn yield. |
| Thailand | 3.7 | +0.2 | +6 | -10 |
Production is estimated higher due to increased corn area and yield. |
| Baltic States | 2.8 | +0.2 | +9 | +5 |
Production is estimated higher due mainly to an increase in barley for Lithuania. Coarse grains were revised slightly higher for Latvia and lower for Estonia. |
| Morocco | 1.7 | +0.2 | +13 | +57 |
Production is estimated higher for corn as official data indicated increases in corn area and yield. |
| Mexico | 24.3 | -0.5 | -2 | -8 |
Production is estimated lower for corn as dry weather reduced area and yield. |
| Colombia | 0.9 | -0.4 | -30 | -30 |
Production is estimated lower for corn and sorghum as area and yield declined due to dry weather. |
| EU-15 | 108.9 | -0.3 | -0 | +5 |
Production is revised lower due to decreases in corn area and yield in Greece. |
| India | 30.7 | -0.3 | -1 | -11 |
Production is estimated lower due to official harvest results indicating a reduction in barley area and yield. |
| Turkey | 10.1 | -0.2 | -2 | +3 |
Production is estimated lower for corn due to a reduction in area, but higher for barley as yield increased. |
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
Country |
-------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 381.4 | -0.9 | -0 | +0 | Production is still projected at a record level despite a decrease this month in the total foreign category. |
| United States | 5.8 | NC |
NC |
+7 | Production is unchanged from last month. |
| Total Foreign | 375.5 | -0.9 | -0 | +0 | Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Burma and Bangladesh. |
| Burma | 8.9 | -0.7 | -7 | -1 | Production is estimated lower as floods reduced area and yield for the monsoon crop. The second crop has been plagued by untimely rain, pests, disease, and insufficient use of inputs. |
| Bangladesh | 18.2 | -0.3 | -1 | -3 | Production is estimated lower as unfavorable weather reduced the Aman crop. |
OILSEEDS
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
-------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 282.8 | -0.8 | -0 | +8 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 84.6 | -0.0 | -0 | +13 | Production is estimated down based on a slight decline in peanuts. |
| Total Foreign | 198.2 | -0.8 | -0 | +6 | Production is estimated lower based on declines in India and Argentina. |
| India | 25.6 | -0.5 | -2 | -4 | Production of cottonseed is forecast lower due to lower cotton arrivals at receiving stations. |
| Argentina | 22.7 | -0.3 | -1 | +31 | Production is forecast lower as heavy and persistent rainfall at harvest reduced prospects for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. A higher estimate for peanuts due to favorable weather and an upward revision in harvest area offset part of the decline in production. |
PALM OIL
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MMT |
1997/98 MonthlyChange MMT |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World | 17 .6 | NC | NC | +1 | No change this month. Record production is forecast. |
COTTON
Country |
--------- Current Estimate MBALES |
1997/98 Monthly Change MBALES |
--------- Monthly Change (%) |
Change from 1996/97 (%) |
Comments |
| World Total | 89.2 | -0.9 | -1 | +0 | Production is forecast lower due to decreases in the United States and the total foreign category. |
| United States | 18.8 | -0.2 | -1 | -1 | Production is estimated down due to the 1997 ginning results. |
| Total Foreign | 70.4 | -0.7 | -1 | +0 | Production is estimated down due to lower output in India, Argentina and other producers, offsetting a gain in Egypt. |
| India | 11.2 | -0.5 | -4 | -19 | Production is forecast down based on total cotton arrivals at gins by the end of March relative to earlier years. Last year's production was a record. |
| Argentina | 1.9 | -0.2 | -10 | +27 | Production is forecast lower due to heavy and prolonged rainfall in the main cotton area, reducing potential yield. |
| Egypt | 1.6 | +0.1 | +7 | -1 | Production is estimated up due to an increase in gin lint output. |
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