World Agricultural Production

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WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
PART 1:

March 1998

This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-336) March 12, 1998.

The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.

The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 PM local time on April 10, 1998.

WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

March 12, 1998

UNITED STATES: In California, record February rainfall curtailed fieldwork. Unseasonably mild weather and adequate moisture prompted hard red winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy. Heavy snow provided much-needed insulation in early March prior to a bitter cold Arctic air outbreak. Soggy February weather that disrupted fieldwork in the Southeast gave way to sub-freezing low temperatures around March 11. Fruit trees and tender vegetables were at risk of freeze damage. Beneficial snow fell in the northern Plains.

SOUTH AMERICA: In Argentina, ideal weather continued to benefit first and second crop soybeans. Excessive wetness, however, in early March caused some damage to mature sunflowers. In southern Brazil, above normal February rainfall favored reproductive to filling soybeans across most of southern Brazil.

EUROPE: Unseasonably mild weather accelerated early growth of winter grains in the west and north and caused early greening of crops in eastern Europe. Early spring fieldwork advanced in southern Europe, helped by several days of dry weather. Recently, colder weather prevailed over the northern half of the continent, slowing winter crop growth.

FSU-WESTERN: Overwintering conditions remained favorable for winter grains. Unusually cold weather in early February was followed by a warming trend that persisted until month's end in the west and south. The mild weather favored winter grains but melted protective snow cover. In Russia, a moderate to deep snow cover protected winter grains from wide fluctuation in temperatures.

NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: Below-normal precipitation in February and early March in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia reduced moisture reserves for winter grains, nearing the heading stage.

SOUTH AFRICA: In early February, a brief heat wave stressed reproductive to filling corn. This was immediately followed by locally heavy showers that brought widespread relief to summer grains and oilseeds but flooded some coastal sugarcane. Warm weather and sunny skies are now needed to help crops reach maturity prior to the first autumn freeze.

SOUTHERN ASIA: A cooling trend continued across northern winter grain and oilseed areas, slowing growth. Unseasonable heat in southern India enhanced evaporative losses. Showers since late February have kept northern winter crops moist but reportedly caused some flooding in Pakistan.

EASTERN ASIA: Above normal early March temperatures caused winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy across the North China Plain. Above normal February rainfall provided adequate moisture for the greening wheat crop and favored transplanting early double-crop across southern China.

SOUTHEAST ASIA: Across southern Sumatra and Java, above normal February rainfall favored main-season rice. Drought continued across the eastern Philippines and eastern Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak). Near normal February rainfall favored oil palm across the Malay Peninsula.

AUSTRALIA: Heavy showers soaked the primary sorghum and cotton areas in early February, benefitting immature crops but causing localized flooding. Warm, dry weather over the past few weeks has been generally favorable for maturing summer crops although locally heavy tropical showers have lingered over northern sugarcane areas.

(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
MARCH 1998

WHEAT

	------1997/98------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate (MMT)	Monthly Change MMT	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World	609.2	-0.2	-0	+5	Production is projected at a record despite a decrease in the total foreign category.
United States	68.8	NC	NC	+11	Production is unchanged from last month.
Total Foreign	540.4	-0.2	-0	+4	Production is estimated at a record, despite decreases in the European Union, Pakistan, and Syria which more than offset increases in Argentina, Saudi Arabia, India, and Bangladesh.
European Union	94.5	-0.7	-1	-4	Production is estimated lower based on reduced yields for Italy, Ireland, and Netherlands.
Pakistan	16.7	-0.4	-2	-2	Production is estimated lower based on official data that reduced yield. Harvest was completed during the Spring of 1997.
Syria	3.0	-0.2	-5	-26	Production is estimated lower based on official statistics reducing yield.
Argentina	14.3	+0.4	+3	-10	Production is estimated higher based on harvest reports indicating record yield. Harvest is virtually complete.
Saudi Arabia	1.8	+0.3	+20	+50	Production is revised higher based on official data indicating record yield. Harvest was completed during the Spring of 1997.
India	69.0	+0.3	+0	+10	Production is revised higher as both area and yield are at record levels. The crop was harvested last Spring.
Bangladesh	1.5	+0.2	+11	+3	Production is estimated at a record level. Area is revised to a record, while yield is near-record.

COARSE GRAINS

	------	1997/98	------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate (MMT)	Monthly Change MMT	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World	896.4	+3.6	+0	-1	Production is projected higher due to an increase in the total foreign category.
United States	265.4	NC	NC	-1	Production is unchanged from last month.
Total Foreign	631.0	+3.6	+1	-1	Production is projected higher as increases in China, the European Union, Australia, and Paraguay more than offset decreases in Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and India.
China	122.4	+4.3	+4	-13	Production is estimated higher as provincial harvest results indicate an increase in corn output. Sorghum yield and the area and yield for oats are reduced.
European Union	109.2	+0.5	+0	+5	Production is estimated at a record level. Harvest results indicate increased corn yields for France and Italy.
Australia	8.9	+0.4	+4	-12	Production is estimated higher based on an ABARE report increasing barley yield. Sorghum output is slightly lower as area is reduced.
Paraguay	1.0	+0.3	+42	-5	Production is estimated higher as favorable weather boosted corn area and yield.
Indonesia	5.7	-0.8	-12	-4	Production is estimated lower based in part on a downward revision of the 1996/97 corn area and production. Below-normal rainfall reduced this year=s corn yield potential.
Mexico	24.8	-0.4	-2	-6	Production is estimated lower for sorghum based on decreases in area and yield. The first crop had lower-than-expected yield, while second-crop planted area is revised lower.
Saudi Arabia	0.6	-0.4	-40	-8	Production is estimated lower due to reduced barley area.
India	31.0	-0.2	-1	-9	Production is estimated lower due to decreases in corn area and yield.

	RICE ------1997/98------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate (MMT)	Monthly Change MMT	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World	382.2	+0.4	+0	+1	Production is projected at a record due to an increase in the total foreign category.
United States	5.8	NC	NC	+7	Production is unchanged from last month.
Total Foreign	376.4	+0.4	+0	+0	Production is projected at a record level as output increases in India and Japan more than offset decreases in Indonesia, Argentina, and Uruguay.
India	82.0	+0.5	+1	+1	Production is estimated at a record based on an increase in yield. The weather was favorable throughout the growing season.
Japan	9.1	+0.1	+1	-3	Production is estimated higher based on official data increasing yield.
Indonesia	30.9	-0.1	-0	-4	Production is projected lower due to reduced area caused by early-season dryness which also delayed planting. The ensuing late harvest will negatively affect the amount of area for the second-season rice crop.

OILSEEDS

	------1997/98------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate (MMT)	Monthly Change MMT	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World	283.6	+0.0	+0	+9	Production is estimated higher based on increases in the total foreign category. Oilseeds production is a record.
United States	84.6	NC	NC	+13	Production is unchanged from last month.
Total Foreign	199.0	+0.0	+0	+7	Production is estimated virtually unchanged as an increase in China is offset by decreases in Argentina, Senegal, and India.
China	40.9	+0.8	+2	-1	Production is estimated higher because of higher-than-expected official preliminary estimates for cottonseed and peanuts. Minor revisions for other crops were offsetting.
India	26.1	-0.4	-2	-2	Production is estimated lower because of heavy rains during flowering of rapeseed and lower-than-expected arrivals of seed cotton for ginning.
Argentina	22.9	-0.3	-1	+33	Production is forecast lower because of damage to a maturing sunflower crop caused by heavy rains. Despite the reduced sunflower output, record oilseed production is forecast based on expectations of a record soybean crop.
Senegal	0.6	-0.2	-22	-14	Production os peanuts is estimated lower due to erratic rainfall during the growing season and reduced availability of inputs.

PALM OIL

	------1997/98------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate (MMT)	MonthlyChange MMT	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World	17.6	+0.1	+1	+1	Production is forecast higher based on an increase in Indonesia.
Indonesia	5.5	+0.1	+2	+4	Production is estimated up based on new information showing higher output over the past three years.

COTTON

	------1997/98------
COUNTRY	Current Estimate MBALES	Monthly Change MBALES	Monthly Change (%)	Change from 1996/97 (%)	Comments
World Total	90.1	-0.9	-1	+1	Production is forecast lower due to a decrease in the total foreign category.
United States	19.0	NC	NC	+0	Production is unchanged from last month. The crop is the second largest on record.
Total Foreign	71.1	-0.9	-1	+1	Production is forecast down due mainly to lower output in India which more than offset higher output in China.
China	19.7	+0.2	+1	+2	Production is estimated up due to a record national yield. Record yields occurred in Xinjiang and in the cotton producing provinces of the Yangtze River Basin more than offsetting lower yields on the North China Plain.
India	11.7	-1.1	-9	-15	Production is estimated down due to inclement weather during the harvest period in Maharashtra and some parts of Andhra Pradesh. Late winter rains caused shedding of flowers and bolls, diminishing the third and fourth pickings.

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