This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-327) June 12, 1997. The report was prepared by the Production Estiamtes and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGSTOP, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on July 14, 1997.
UNITED STATES: Cool weather persists for the ninth consecutive week east of the Mississippi River, slowing corn and soybean growth. Early June rain soaks the Ohio Valley, while warm and dry weather favors corn growth in the western Corn Belt and spring wheat growth in the northern Plains. Topsoils are drying out in the northern Plains. Unusual late-spring rain favors small grains in the Northwest.
CANADA: Unseasonable cold in May slowed early spring planting efforts in the northern and eastern Prairies. A late-May warmup improved overall prospects, although a few local areas remained prohibitively wet. In Ontario, persistent cool, wet weather in southern growing areas slowed summer crop planting and early development. Ontario's winter wheat is susceptible to a recurrence of diseases that have plagued the region in recent years.
SOUTH AMERICA: Despite below-normal May rainfall, early June rains boosted topsoil moisture for winter wheat planting in central Argentina. More rain is still needed, especially in southern Santa Fe and Cordoba. May and early June showers increased topsoil moisture for wheat planting throughout most of southern Brazil. However, the wheat areas of eastern Parana and Rio Grande do Sul still need more rain.
EUROPE: Above-normal precipitation in May in England, France, the Benelux countries, and Germany was timely for winter grains that were in or nearing reproduction as well as for emergence and establishment of spring-sown crops. Unusual rains benefitted summer crop development in Spain while recent soaking rain in northern Italy eased long-term dryness. In eastern Europe, wet weather since May 25 provided abundant moisture for winter grains and spring-sown crops.
FSU-WESTERN: In Russia, generous rains in May provided favorable moisture for winter grain development and spring-planted crops. In Ukraine, although a drying trend in the south in May lowered topsoil moisture for newly planted spring grains and summer crops, rain since May 26 improved growing conditions. Since early June, soaking rain in Ukraine and southern Russia was timely for winter wheat, typically advancing through reproduction.
FSU-NEWLANDS: In Russia, weather conditions in May favored spring grain planting in Western Siberia while cool, wet weather in the Urals slowed planting. In Kazakstan, wet weather in early May was followed by a drying trend that allowed spring grain planting to advance to completion in early June.
SOUTH ASIA: The southwest monsoon is off to a slow start in southern India, arriving somewhat later than usual and supported by an unfavorably weak upper air pattern. A strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the next few weeks will be critical for grains, oilseeds, and cotton, typically planted in June and July.
EASTERN ASIA: Above-normal May rainfall favored summer crop germination across Manchuria and the North China Plain. The moisture also benefitted reproductive to filling winter wheat. Near-normal rainfall maintained adequate moisture supplies for rice across southern China. However, locally heavy showers across the south caused some flooding.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Near-normal May rainfall brought some relief to the Philippines, but widespread showers are still needed. Below-normal May rainfall continued into early June across Thailand, reducing moisture supplies for rainfed corn and rice. Above-normal monthly rainfall hampered main-season rice harvesting across Java, but maintained favorable moisture supplies for the upcoming second-crop rice crop. Much-below-normal May rainfall reduced moisture for oil palm across peninsular Malaysia, but early June rains brought some relief.
AUSTRALIA: Primary winter grain areas of the southeast have received only light, scattered showers in recent weeks. While providing marginal moisture for fieldwork and germination, much more rain is needed to offset long-term moisture deficits and ensure proper establishment. Mid-May showers benefitted eastern Australia's more northerly winter grain areas but raised concern for unharvested cotton. The recent drying trend in the east has left pasture and grazing land in need of moisture. Early winter grain prospects are good in Western Australia thanks to a wetter weather pattern.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98
June 1997
------------1997/98------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1996/97
MMT MMT Percent Percent
WHEAT
World 578.8 +0.4 +0 -1
Production is forecast higher this month due to a an increase in the
United States which more than offset a reduction in the total foreign
category.
United States 62.7 +1.2 +2 +1
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in winter wheat yields.
Total Foreign 516.1 -0.8 -0 -1
Production is forecast lower due to reductions in Iran, Syria, and
Morocco which more than offsets an increase in Romania.
Iran 10.0 -0.5 -5 -9
Production is forecast lower due to unfavorably dry weather and above-
normal temperatures in parts of Iran. Also, earlier cold weather
hampered yield potential.
Syria 3.8 -0.4 -10 -11
Production is forecast lower as field travel by USDA staff in Damascus
indicated reduced yield due to cold weather in late-April.
Morocco 2.1 -0.4 -16 -64
Production is forecast lower due to fall wetness followed by drought
that severely reduced yield.
Romania 7.5 +0.5 +7 +137
Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather which boosted
yield potential.
COARSE GRAINS
World 898.9 +0.1 +0 -0
Production is forecast higher this month due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 278.4 NC NC +4
No change this month.
Total Foreign 620.5 +0.1 +0 -2
Production is estimated higher due mainly to an increase in Indonesia
which more than offsets a decline in Morocco.
Indonesia 7.0 +0.2 +3 +6
Production is forecast higher as an increase in the use of high-yielding
corn varieties improved yield potential.
Morocco 1.5 -0.2 -11 -62
Production is forecast lower as too wet conditions at planting and
drought during the growing season reduced barley yield.
RICE (MILLED BASIS) FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World production is forecast at 377.3 million tons, down 3.9 million or 1 percent from 1996/97. Foreign production for 1997/98 is forecast at 372.0 million tons, down 3.6 million or 1 percent from 1996/97. Rice production in the United States is forecast at 5.3 million tons, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from 1996/97.
OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World oilseed production is forecast at 273.0 million tons, up 15.0 million or 6 percent from 1996/97. Foreign production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 192.2 million tons, up 9.0 million or 5 percent from 1996/97. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at 80.8 million tons, up 6.0 million or 8 percent from 1996/97.
COTTON FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World production is forecast at 87.5 million bales, down 0.8 million or 1 percent from 1996/97. Total foreign production is forecast at 69.0 million bales, down 0.3 million or less than 1 percent form 1996/97. U.S. production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or 2 percent from 1996/97.
WHEAT: World wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 583.0 million tons, up 1.8 million or less than 1 percent from last month's estimate. The higher production estimate is due to upward revisions for China, Argentina, Australia, and France.
COARSE GRAINS: World production for 1996/97 is estimated at 901.6 million tons, up 1.7 million or less than 1 percent from last month's estimate. Production is estimated higher due to increases in corn output for China and France and sorghum production for Mexico.
World 381.2 +3.8 +1 +3
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in total foreign
output.
United States 5.6 NC NC -1
No change this month.
Total Foreign 375.6 +3.8 +1 +3
Production is estimated higher due to increases in China, Vietnam, and
Brazil. Also, various countries within the FSU-12 were revised.
China 136.5 +2.8 +2 +5
Production is revised higher based on preliminary estimates by China's
State Statistical Bureau.
Vietnam 17.8 +0.8 +5 +1
Production is estimated higher based on a record winter-spring crop
resulting from a combination of excellent weather, high yielding
varieties, and expanded harvested area.
Brazil 6.5 +0.3 +5 -5
Production is estimated higher based on record yield.
FSU-12 0.7 -0.2 -20 -10
Production is estimated lower due mainly to reductions in area and yield
for Kazakstan and yield for Uzbekistan.
OILSEEDS
World 258.0 +0.2 +0 +1
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign
category.
U.S. 74.8 NC NC +8
No change this month.
Total Foreign 183.2 +0.2 +0 -2
Production is estimated higher mainly due to increases for China, India,
and Pakistan which more than offset declines in Argentina and Hungary.
China 41.7 +0.7 +2 -4
Production is estimated higher based on increases in peanut and rapeseed
output.
India 25.6 +0.4 +2 +3
Production is estimated higher due to increases in soybean and
cottonseed output.
Pakistan 3.6 +0.1 +3 -10
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in cottonseed yield.
Argentina 18.1 -0.5 -3 -6
Production is estimated lower resulting from dry conditions which
reduced soybean and cottonseed yields.
Hungary 0.9 -0.1 -11 +21
Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in sunflowerseed yield.
World 16.8 +0.1 +1 +6
Production is forecast higher this month due to an increase in Malaysia.
------------1997/98------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1996/97
MBales MBales Percent Percent
World Total 88.3 +0.3 +0 -4
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in the total foreign
category.
United States 18.9 NC NC +6
No change this month.
Total Foreign 69.3 +0.3 +0 -7
Production is forecast higher due to increases in India, Australia, and
Pakistan which more than offset declines in Turkey and Argentina.
India 12.8 +0.3 +2 +1
Production is estimated at a record due to favorable weather and timely
post monsoonal rains in central and southern India. These rains
increased yield allowing for additional pickings.
Australia 2.8 +0.2 +8 +45
Production is estimated at a record due to favorable weather during the
growing and harvesting period.
Pakistan 7.3 +0.2 +3 -11
Production is estimated higher based on official data from the Ministry
of Agriculture.
Turkey 3.5 -0.2 -6 -12
Production is estimated lower due to heavy rains during harvest that
reduced the yield and quality of the crop.
Argentina 1.5 -0.2 -12 -22
Production is estimated down as dry periods in January and March reduced
yield potential.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY| 1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12 Jun 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 537.935 583.025 578.436 578.817
Area MIL. HA 219.633 231.294 227.973 227.866
Yield MT/HA 2.449 2.521 2.537 2.540
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 59.400 62.099 61.547 62.693
Area MIL. HA 24.664 25.435 24.685 24.685
Yield MT/HA 2.408 2.441 2.493 2.540
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 478.535 520.926 516.889 516.124
Area MIL. HA 194.969 205.859 203.288 203.181
Yield MT/HA 2.454 2.530 2.543 2.540
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 9.200 16.100 14.000 14.000
Area MIL. HA 4.781 7.000 6.300 6.300
Yield MT/HA 1.924 2.300 2.222 2.222
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 16.504 23.586 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.721 11.327 11.000 11.000
Yield MT/HA 1.698 2.082 1.682 1.682
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 25.037 30.500 26.000 26.000
Area MIL. HA 11.141 12.650 11.700 11.700
Yield MT/HA 2.247 2.411 2.222 2.222
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 86.161 99.045 97.850 97.850
Area MIL. HA 16.161 16.784 17.275 17.275
Yield MT/HA 5.331 5.901 5.664 5.664
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.320 62.970 68.170 68.170
Area MIL. HA 45.358 48.155 47.605 47.605
Yield MT/HA 1.308 1.308 1.432 1.432
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 34.970 26.300 33.200 33.700
Area MIL. HA 9.710 8.689 9.610 9.610
Yield MT/HA 3.601 3.027 3.455 3.507
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 102.215 110.300 114.000 114.000
Area MIL. HA 28.860 29.558 30.000 30.000
Yield MT/HA 3.542 3.732 3.800 3.800
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 65.470 62.620 64.500 64.500
Area MIL. HA 25.600 25.100 25.400 25.400
Yield MT/HA 2.557 2.495 2.539 2.539
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 17.002 16.907 16.000 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.170 8.376 8.100 8.100
Yield MT/HA 2.081 2.019 1.975 1.975
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 15.500 16.000 16.000 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.550 8.450 8.500 8.500
Yield MT/HA 1.813 1.893 1.882 1.882
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 3.460 3.200 3.400 3.400
Area MIL. HA 0.870 0.800 0.850 0.850
Yield MT/HA 3.977 4.000 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.960 0.995 0.925 1.000
Area MIL. HA 0.168 0.168 0.160 0.163
Yield MT/HA 5.714 5.923 5.781 6.135
==================================================================
Jun 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY| 1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12 Jun 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 515.944 589.356 598.495 598.695
Area MIL. HA 134.371 141.157 141.701 141.701
Yield MT/HA 3.840 4.175 4.224 4.225
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 187.305 236.064 249.948 249.948
Area MIL. HA 26.303 29.602 30.401 30.401
Yield MT/HA 7.121 7.975 8.222 8.222
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 328.639 353.292 348.547 348.747
Area MIL. HA 108.068 111.555 111.300 111.300
Yield MT/HA 3.041 3.167 3.132 3.133
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.100 14.500 13.000 13.000
Area MIL. HA 2.700 3.300 3.000 3.000
Yield MT/HA 4.111 4.394 4.333 4.333
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 10.200 8.300 8.500 8.500
Area MIL. HA 3.300 3.360 3.200 3.200
Yield MT/HA 3.091 2.470 2.656 2.656
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.700 4.000 4.000 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.140 1.200 1.150 1.150
Yield MT/HA 3.246 3.333 3.478 3.478
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 25.371 25.715 24.800 24.800
Area MIL. HA 6.949 7.023 6.825 6.825
Yield MT/HA 3.651 3.662 3.634 3.634
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 29.224 34.678 34.725 34.725
Area MIL. HA 3.732 4.081 4.160 4.160
Yield MT/HA 7.831 8.497 8.347 8.347
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 7.010 4.535 7.335 7.335
Area MIL. HA 2.465 2.097 2.753 2.753
Yield MT/HA 2.844 2.163 2.664 2.664
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.780 19.000 19.500 19.500
Area MIL. HA 7.800 8.200 8.500 8.500
Yield MT/HA 2.279 2.317 2.294 2.294
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 112.000 127.460 122.000 122.000
Area MIL. HA 22.767 24.495 23.500 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.919 5.204 5.191 5.191
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 32.480 37.000 35.000 35.000
Area MIL. HA 13.767 14.200 14.000 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.359 2.606 2.500 2.500
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.324 4.250 4.200 4.200
Area MIL. HA 2.760 2.730 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.567 1.557 1.556 1.556
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 6.000 6.600 6.800 7.000
Area MIL. HA 3.531 3.550 3.580 3.580
Yield MT/HA 1.699 1.859 1.899 1.955
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.271 7.200 8.000 8.000
Area MIL. HA 1.003 1.040 1.125 1.125
Yield MT/HA 7.249 6.923 7.111 7.111
==================================================================
Jun 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY| 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | May 12 Jun 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.630 124.440 132.520 132.227
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.279 63.200 63.082
Yield MT/HA 2.212 2.031 2.097 2.096
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 64.837 64.837
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.661 25.661
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.527 2.527
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.137 65.197 67.683 67.390
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.341 37.539 37.421
Yield MT/HA 1.840 1.794 1.803 1.801
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.500 12.430 12.400 12.000
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.200 6.200
Yield MT/HA 2.193 2.079 2.000 1.935
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.700 26.500 26.500
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 11.800 11.800
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.164 2.246 2.246
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.400 2.600 2.600
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.182 2.167 2.167
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.500 13.500
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.800 7.800
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.731 1.731
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.500 1.500
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.346 1.300 1.300
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.159 1.154 1.154
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.304 0.363 0.358
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.179 0.216 0.213
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.698 1.681 1.681
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.029 0.939 1.075 1.153
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.317 0.335
Yield MT/HA 2.923 3.227 3.391 3.442
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523
==================================================================
Jun 12, 1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY| 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | May 12 Jun 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.873 92.252 87.945 88.265
Area MIL. HA 32.204 35.867 33.694 33.650
Yield KG/HA 581 560 568 571
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.942 18.942
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.208 5.208
Yield KG/HA 794 602 792 792
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 66.211 74.352 69.003 69.323
Area MIL. HA 26.813 29.389 28.486 28.442
Yield KG/HA 538 551 527 531
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.600 2.800
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.410
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,452 1,487
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.029 0.029
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.011 0.011
Yield KG/HA 666 745 574 574
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 900
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.150 1.150
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 835 835
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.100 7.300
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 483 497
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.450 0.450
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.230 0.230
Yield KG/HA 501 485 426 426
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.911 3.650 3.445
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.757 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,125 1,060 1,000
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.500 6.500
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 556 556
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.930 1.700 1.500
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.960 0.900 0.880
Yield KG/HA 500 438 411 371
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 19.300 19.300
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.722
Yield KG/HA 784 879 875 890
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.649 12.500 12.800
Area MIL. HA 7.861 9.063 8.865 8.865
Yield KG/HA 300 304 307 314
==================================================================
Jun 12, 1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY| 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | May 12 Jun 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 364.881 371.467 377.378 381.210
Area MIL. HA 148.047 148.529 148.647 149.268
Yield MT/HA 2.465 2.501 2.539 2.554
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.595 5.595
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.133 1.133
Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.938 4.938
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.233 365.836 371.783 375.615
Area MIL. HA 146.705 147.277 147.514 148.135
Yield MT/HA 2.442 2.484 2.520 2.536
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 4.260 4.260
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.230 2.230
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.910 1.910
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 9.860 9.300 9.300
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.666 5.600 5.600
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.740 1.661 1.661
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.388 13.900 13.900
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.032 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.593 1.511 1.511
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 133.700 136.500
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.745 30.700 31.406
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.217 4.355 4.346
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.874 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.520 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.854 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.413 9.413
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.977 1.977
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.761 4.761
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.500
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.500
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.857
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.050 1.006
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.166
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.364 6.060
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.500 7.500
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 4.000 4.000
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.875 1.875
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 80.500 80.500
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.700 42.700
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.885 1.885
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.941 10.000 10.000
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.779 1.850 1.850
==================================================================
Jun 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION (Early Release)
The preliminary forecast for 1997/98 world green coffee production is
103.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 3 percent from the 100.7 million
harvested last season. Production in 1997/98 would match the previous
record crop produced in 1991/92.
Brazil, the world's largest producer, is projected to produce 28.0
million bags in 1997/98, up slightly from last season's 27.5 million
bag harvest. The 1996/97 crop estimate for Brazil was revised up 0 .5
million bags from the December 1996 forecast (WAP 12-96). Factors
influencing the 1997/98 forecast include: 1) field surveys of major
coffee-producing regions during September 1996 and March-April 1997 by
the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2) favorable weather and good
growing conditions; 3) high grower prices that resulted in improved
cultural practices coupled with an increase in production inputs; 4)
harvested area and bearing bushes up 3 and 5 percent, respectively from
last season; 5) production coming on stream from a marked increase in
high density plantings; and, 6) the recovery of bushes that were
severely pruned following the two frosts and drought of 1994. The
marginal increase in the 1997/98 crop estimate is tempered by the "off-
year" cycle in some coffee growing regions. There was also excessive
rainfall during the September-January period that contributed to a
larger number of flowerings than usual, negatively affecting fruit
formation in some areas. However, the on/year off/year cycles are not
nearly as pronounced as they were in the past. This decreased variation
is due to changes in cultural practices which include new coffee tree
varieties, increased irrigation, and a higher plant density per hectare.
The 1997/98 forecast includes 23 million bags of Arabica and 5 million
of Robusta. The total number of coffee trees is forecast at 3.6
billion, up 5 percent from the 1996/97 season. The coffee production
potential in Brazil is currently estimated at 35 million bags.
Colombia's 1997/98 coffee production forecast of 11.3 million bags
suggests a modest recovery from the estimated 1996/97 crop of 10.3
million bags, the smallest crop in twenty years.
The decline in 1996/97 Colombian coffee production is due to: 1)
unusually heavy, sporadic rains that damaged coffee flowering; 2)
reduced producer inputs and cultural practices as a result of lower
producer prices; 3) an increase in damage by the insect "Broca" that
incubates in coffee cherries; 4) the increasing age of coffee trees that
results in yield reductions; and, 5) the continual reduction in coffee
area as coffee lands are replanted to other crops. The 1996/97 estimate
takes into account the high production levels reported by the Colombia
Coffee Growers Federation (FEDECAFE) that during April and May
production was up 23 and 12 percent, respectively from the same months a
year ago.
Colombian coffee production for the near future is expected to
fluctuate between 11 and 13 million bags. Improved yield levels are
projected to offset reduced area. Once coffee prices weaken again, the
downward trend in area is likely to resume. Grower coffee prices
improved dramatically only after February 1997. As a result, growers
have regained enthusiasm for the crop, and this should result in better
cultural practices this year.
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION
(1,000 60-Kg Bags) 1/
Region and Country 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Jun 2/
NORTH AMERICA
Costa Rica 2,492 2,595 2,300 2,450
Cuba 400 300 350 350
Dominican Repub 700 795 640 820
El Salvador 2,314 2,325 2,438 2,590
Guatemala 3,500 3,827 4,141 4,207
Haiti 440 440 440 440
Honduras 2,295 2,254 2,385 2,575
Jamaica 44 45 45 45
Mexico 4,030 5,500 5,600 5,700
Nicaragua 685 986 986 987
Panama 190 189 221 225
Trinidad and To 15 10 15 15
United States 3 237 236 209 266
TOTAL 17,342 19,502 19,770 20,670
SOUTH AMERICA
Bolivia 95 120 140 140
Brazil 28,000 16,800 27,500 28,000
Colombia 13,000 12,900 10,300 11,300
Ecuador 2,550 1,900 1,800 1,900
Guyana 5 5 5 5
Paraguay 50 70 60 60
Peru 1,453 1,811 1,540 1,820
Venezuela 920 1,067 843 1,070
TOTAL 46,073 34,673 42,188 44,295
AFRICA
Angola 70 90 90 90
Benin 35 35 35 35
Burundi 600 400 450 500
Cameroon 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Central African 250 300 350 350
Congo 25 25 25 25
Cote d'Ivoire 3,733 2,900 4,660 3,800
Equatorial Guin 15 15 15 15
Ethiopia 3,800 3,800 4,000 4,000
Gabon 25 25 25 25
Ghana 30 30 30 30
Guinea 100 100 100 100
Kenya 1,584 1,580 1,343 1,702
Liberia 10 10 10 10
Madagascar 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,100
Malawi 70 80 80 80
Nigeria 50 55 55 55
Rwanda 80 350 250 300
Sierra Leone 70 70 70 70
Tanzania 820 850 700 700
Togo 250 100 250 250
Uganda 3,100 4,200 4,000 4,000
Zaire 1,300 1,000 900 1,000
Zambia 23 27 30 30
Zimbabwe 155 75 200 200
TOTAL 18,195 18,217 19,768 19,467
ASIA
India 3,060 3,717 3,417 3,750
Indonesia 6,400 5,800 7,600 6,800
Laos 100 150 150 150
Malaysia 153 158 160 160
Philippines 878 876 920 960
Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60
Thailand 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200
Vietnam 3,500 3,635 4,215 5,000
Yemen 65 65 65 65
TOTAL 15,616 15,761 17,887 18,145
OCEANIA
New Caledonia 5 5 5 5
Papua New Guine 1,050 1,000 1,100 1,100
TOTAL 1,055 1,005 1,105 1,105
WORLD TOTAL 98,281 89,158 100,718 103,682
1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. 2/ Coffee marketing year begins
October in some countries and April or July in others. 3/ Includes
Puerto Rico and Hawaii.
NOTE: Production estimates for some countries include cross-border
movements.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
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