May 1997
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-326) May 12, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGSTOP 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on June 13, 1997.
In March 1997, little if any precipitation occurred in Spain, Portugal, France, England, and Italy's Po Valley. Although the dryness favored rapid spring planting, moisture was insufficient for developing winter grains and emerging spring crops. Precipitation has been well-below normal in these countries since late January. Crop prospects for winter grains worsened in March in Portugal and southern Spain, where crops were in or nearing reproduction. During the first week of April 1997, dryness prevailed for the 10th consecutive week over Spain and Portugal. Persistent dryness reduced winter grain yield that were in or nearing reproduction and stressed emerging spring grain crops. This dryness extended northward into France and the United Kingdom, where the lack of moisture was beginning to stress winter wheat in the jointing stage. During April 6 - 12, only light, scattered precipitation fell in Spain and Portugal. As a result, the condition of non-irrigated winter grains continued to worsen, while dryness lowered emergence prospects for summer crops. England, France, and northern Italy remained unfavorably dry that week. Much-needed rain fell in the Iberian peninsula during the week April 13 - 19. The rain came too late to significantly improve prospects for filling winter grains in Portugal and southern Spain. However, it benefited reproductive winter grains in northern Spain, as well as spring-planted crops throughout the region. Elsewhere that week, only light, scattered showers fell in southern France, while unfavorable dryness persisted in northern France, England, and northern Italy. However, unseasonably cool weather lowered crop-water requirements. During April 20 - 26, light to moderate precipitation fell in western Europe, moistening top soils following prolonged dryness. Precipitation amounts in England, Spain, and Portugal ranged from 10 to 25 millimeters, with locally heavier amounts (25 - 40 millimeters) in central and southern Spain. Lesser amounts (2 - 12 millimeters) fell late in the week in France and northern Italy. From April 27 to May 5, light-to-moderate showers in England, France, and Italy eased prolonged dryness, improving moisture conditions for winter grain development and newly emerging spring-sown crops. Precipitation in these areas generally ranged from 4 to 25 millimeters, with timely soaking rain (25 - 20 millimeters) benefiting reproductive winter grains in Italy.
Rainfall was widespread across Australia's eastern winter grain growing regions during May 7 - 9, 1997. This rain provided moisture for field preparation and planting in southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and eastern South Australia. Planting of winter wheat and barley normally begin around the first of May and can continue through July. During March 1997, southeastern Australia's winter wheat and barley growing areas were dry. In Western Australia, late-March showers signaled the beginning of a 3-week wet spell in western winter grain areas. During April, the eastern winter wheat and barley areas for the most part were dry. From April 1 through April 19, Western Australia continued to receive unseasonably heavy rain with weekly rainfall exceeding normal amounts. This rainfall provided pre-planting moisture for western winter wheat and barley, as the planting window is also May through July.
On April 30, Statistics Canada released March planting intentions of principal field crop areas for the 1997/98 season. The report indicates that wheat area is likely to be lower than in the previous year, whereas rapeseed plantings will increase. A reduction in wheat prices since last year has shifted the relative prices back in favor of rapeseed. Total-wheat intended area is put at 11.7 million hectares, down 10 percent from 1996/97. Spring wheat area is placed at 9.3 million hectares, down 11 percent, while durum wheat is put at 2.1 million hectares, up 1 percent. The price premium for durum over spring wheat remains an attraction to durum farmers. Winter wheat seedings were 0.3 million hectares, down 34 percent from 1996/97. Approximately 36, 000 hectares of winter wheat in Ontario were lost to winter-kill. Rapeseed planting is expected to total 4.7 million hectares, up 32 percent from 1996/97 seeded area. Soybeans, grown primarily in southern Ontario, are expected to be planted on 1.0 million hectares, up 14 percent from last year's seeded area. Barley planted area is expected to be 5.1 million hectares, down 4 percent; and oats planted area is expected to be 2.0 million hectares, also down 4 percent from 1996/97. Corn-for-grain seeding, however, is expected to increase 4 percent from 1996/97, it will be planted on 1.1 million hectares.
General Crop Comments: April started with unseasonably cold, wet weather in most of the United States and gradually warmed and dried as the month progressed. Early-month rain and snow compounded flooding problems that already existed in the Red River Valley because of record snowfall in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Saturated soils delayed the start of spring wheat, barley, and oat planting and kept farmers out of fields until the end of the month. Small grain planting in the Northwest also progressed behind the 5-year average as cool, damp weather prevailed. However, conditions were ideal in the eastern Great Lakes and farmers planted oats at a faster-than-normal pace.
Cool soils and wet weather prevented farmers in the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from planting spring crops. Even though soils were still cool, planting accelerated later in the month as the soils dried in the Corn Belt. Corn planting was progressing at or near a record pace in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio by the last week in April. Soils in Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina remained cool and wet, slowing planting the entire month. Heavy rains in the Gulf Coast States caused localized flooding and limited fieldwork. Cotton, peanut, and rice planting lagged further behind average as the month continued.
Reminiscent of 1995, below-freezing temperatures during April 11-13 damaged the winter wheat crop in the southern Plains. Farmers and agronomists were in fields evaluating the effects of the freeze, but the full extent of the damage was difficult to determine. Condition of the Kansas wheat crop dropped significantly after the freeze, but improved later as damage was found to be limited to the southern part of the State. Oklahoma and Texas farmers found more damage in their further-advanced crop. The condition of the crop in both States declined significantly after the freeze.
An area extending from Florida northward to North Carolina, started out dry, then turned wet. Winter wheat developed rapidly and planting of spring crops progressed ahead of the normal pace. At mid-month, farmers stopped planting spring crops because soils were too dry. The winter wheat condition in Georgia declined as the crop became stressed. Beneficial moisture finally fell at the end of the month. Cotton planting progressed well in California and Arizona as these were the only States to record above-normal temperatures for April.
In April, weather conditions favored crop development over most of the former Soviet Union west of the Urals. Above-normal precipitation fell over Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics. Well-above-normal precipitation occurred in eastern Ukraine and parts of Russia (North Caucasus Region, Volga Valley, and Volga Vyatsk Regions), providing ample soil moisture for early spring crop growth. However, cool, damp weather in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia slowed spring grain planting. Unseasonably cool weather persisted in most areas during April, slowing development of winter grains. By month's end, crop progress for winter grains ranged from greening in northern areas to jointing in southern Ukraine and southern Russia. Crop development for winter grains ranged from 1 to 3 weeks behind normal in most areas. Since early May, a warming trend and generally dry weather in Ukraine and Russia promoted winter grain development and favored spring grain planting. Reports as of May 5 indicated spring grain planting was progressing ahead of last year's delayed pace in Ukraine and Russia. However, corn and sunflower planting was progressing slowly.
In crop areas east of the Urals, spring grain planting usually begins in May. In April, unusually warm weather accompanied periodic dryness, helping early season fieldwork. Moisture accumulations since last fall have been near-normal in the Urals (Russia) and western Kazakstan, and below normal in most of Western Siberia (Russia) and both central and eastern Kazakstan. Tom Puterbaugh 720-2012 (May 1997).
The preliminary 1997/98 forecast for world centrifugal sugar production is a record 122.4 million tons (raw value), virtually unchanged from the revised 1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast at 86.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last year. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is forecast at 36.4 million tons, down 3 percent from last season and 11 percent less than the record 41.1 million produced in 1990/91.
European Union (EU-15): The European Union's 1997/98 sugar production forecast of 17.4 million tons is down 4 percent from last season. All major sugar-producing member states are projecting lower sugar output in 1997/98 except Italy, where production is forecast to remain stable at 1.6 million tons. The European Union accounts for 48 percent of the world's production of beet sugar.
Brazil: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 14.8 million tons, up marginally from last season because of record cane production and favorable weather. For the 1997/98 season, Brazil is the world's single largest producer of centrifugal sugar.
India: Sugar production for 1997/98 is projected at 13.6 million tons, down 7 percent from last season due to a 6-percent reduction in the volume of cane cut specifically for centrifugal sugar and slightly lower yields. Sugarcane and sugar production are projected to continue trending downward as ongoing delays in producer payments causes growers to increasingly shift away from cane production and use fewer inputs. These developments, coupled with expanding production of alternative sweeteners, has resulted in a 25-percent reduction in centrifugal sugar production since the record outturn of 18.2 million tons in 1995/96.
China: Sugar production in China for 1997/98 is forecast at 7.2 million tons, up 1 percent from last season based on projections of increased production of both beet and cane sugar. Approximately 80 percent of China's sugar production comes from sugarcane. Sugarcane area is forecast to increase slightly in 1997/98 due to continued expansion in Guangxi and Yunnan Provinces.
Thailand: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 6.4 million tons, up 2 percent from 1996/97. The increase reflects continuing expansion of the area planted to cane in the northeast part of the country where farmers are increasingly switching from cassava to sugarcane.
Australia: The sugar production forecast for 1997/98 indicates a record outturn of 5.6 million tons, up 3 percent from last season due to an increase in land assignments. Harvested area in 1997/98 is expected to exceed the 1996/97 area by 10,000 hectares for a total of 412,000.
Mexico: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 4.8 million tons, 2 percent greater than the previous record of 4.7 million set in 1996/97. Although cane area is essentially unchanged from last year, cane yields are expected to be higher due to exceptionally favorable weather. The current projection pegs the average yield at 73.7 tons per hectare for the 1997/98 crop, up from 69.9 tons per hectare in 1996/97.
The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to 122.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0 million. The reduction is mainly due to decreases in the following countries: India, down 914,000 tons to 14.7 million; Indonesia, down 355,000 tons to 2.1 million; Pakistan, down 230,000 tons, to 2.4 million; and Cuba, down 200,000 tons to 4.4 million.
Frank Hokana, Sugar Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0875
E-mail: hokana@fas.usda.gov.
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION 1/
(1,000 Metric tons)
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 2/
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 171 151 145 115
Mexico 4,556 4,660 4,670 4,770
United States 3/ 4/ 7,194 6,686 6,532 6,804
Total 11,921 11,497 11,347 11,689
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 1,180 1,590 1,380 1,640
Bolivia 270 265 265 265
Brazil 12,500 13,700 14,650 14,800
Chile 505 598 473 418
Colombia 2,071 2,002 2,044 2,045
Ecuador 339 373 451 466
Guyana 254 280 288 290
Paraguay 95 126 110 110
Peru 641 641 610 670
Surinam 1 1 1 1
Uruguay 25 25 25 25
Venezuela 530 550 560 570
Total 18,411 20,151 20,857 21,300
CENTRAL AMERICA
Belize 105 110 110 110
Costa Rica 331 353 355 370
El Salvador 312 310 389 414
Guatemala 1,333 1,334 1,442 1,520
Honduras 214 235 264 269
Nicaragua 250 301 358 358
Panama 135 159 178 180
Total 2,680 2,802 3,096 3,221
CARIBBEAN
Barbados 40 60 65 65
Cuba 3,300 4,450 4,400 4,500
Dominican Republic 482 590 655 630
Guadeloupe 56 53 55 55
Haiti 0 10 10 10
Jamaica 212 238 240 242
Martinique 7 5 5 5
St. Kitts & Nevis 20 20 20 20
Trinidad & Tobago 117 118 122 126
Total 4,234 5,544 5,572 5,653
EUROPEAN UNION
Austria 438 482 537 478
Belgium-Luxembourg 945 965 1,036 985
Denmark 487 470 548 507
Finland 167 176 143 165
France 5/ 4,363 4,564 4,594 4,534
Germany 3,991 4,159 4,558 4,331
Greece 277 312 288 362
Ireland 232 241 247 220
Italy 1,622 1,621 1,561 1,565
Netherlands 1,050 1,074 1,125 1,087
Portugal 4 5 3 30
Spain 1,214 1,193 1,332 1,205
Sweden 370 387 433 440
United Kingdom 1,373 1,322 1,608 1,441
Total 16,533 16,971 18,013 17,350
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE
Switzerland 128 135 200 180
EASTERN EUROPE
Albania 10 10 10 10
Bulgaria 13 15 9 9
Czech Republic 375 477 610 470
Hungary 425 484 490 480
Poland 1,492 1,714 2,497 1,900
Romania 212 270 300 315
Slovakia 130 145 246 246
Former Yugoslavia 7/ 340 242 409 280
Total 2,997 3,357 4,571 3,710
FSU-12
Belarus 107 152 140 140
Kazakstan 60 50 65 65
Kyrgyzstan 11 15 15 15
Moldova 160 190 190 190
Russia 1,655 2,060 1,750 1,800
Ukraine 3,600 3,800 2,900 2,850
Total 5,593 6,267 5,060 5,060
BALTIC STATES
Latvia 30 35 35 35
Lithuania 50 80 70 70
Total 80 115 105 105
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola 35 35 35 35
Benin 5 5 5 5
Burkina 20 20 20 20
Burundi 15 15 15 15
Cameroon 60 60 60 60
Chad 20 20 20 20
Congo (Brazzaville) 30 35 35 35
Cote d' Ivoire 150 130 150 150
Ethiopia 200 200 170 170
Gabon 20 20 20 20
Ghana 5 5 5 5
Guinea 25 25 25 25
Kenya 302 386 388 410
Madagascar 80 80 80 80
Malawi 200 200 200 200
Mali 20 20 20 20
Mauritius 532 572 625 630
Mozambique 20 30 30 30
Nigeria 40 30 15 16
Reunion 165 209 229 229
Rwanda 5 5 5 5
Senegal 90 90 90 90
Sierra Leone 7 7 7 7
Somalia 30 30 30 30
South Africa 1,770 1,769 2,408 2,500
Swaziland 495 447 502 467
Tanzania 135 130 110 110
Togo 5 5 5 5
Uganda 50 75 90 90
Zaire 83 85 90 90
Zambia 155 160 170 170
Zimbabwe 524 534 337 604
Total 5,293 5,434 5,991 6,343
Egypt 1,088 1,092 1,184 1,225
Morocco 470 436 438 433
Sudan 470 500 500 500
Tunisia 26 30 35 35
Total 2,064 2,068 2,167 2,203
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 900 940 700 700
Iraq 12 12 12 12
Lebanon 18 25 30 30
Syria 115 115 109 115
Turkey 1,678 1,375 2,025 2,200
Total 2,723 2,467 2,876 3,057
OTHER ASIA
Afghanistan 10 10 10 10
Bangladesh 290 200 150 150
Burma 60 60 60 60
China 5,900 6,686 7,085 7,175
India 6/ 16,410 18,225 14,686 13,650
Indonesia 2,450 2,090 2,095 2,150
Japan 817 901 765 870
Malaysia 102 105 108 110
Nepal 45 45 45 45
Pakistan 3,212 2,643 2,370 2,960
Philippines 1,647 1,787 1,800 1,800
Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60
Taiwan 441 392 340 330
Thailand 5,448 6,223 6,255 6,360
Vietnam 450 535 600 600
Total 37,342 39,962 36,429 36,330
OCEANIA
Australia 5,196 5,049 5,491 5,650
Fiji 535 481 470 470
Papua New Guinea 35 35 35 35
Total 5,766 5,565 5,996 6,155
WORLD TOTAL 115,765 122,335 122,280 122,356
1/ National crop years. About one-half are on a September/August basis. Crop years for Southern Hemisphere countries begin prior to September. Factors for converting from refined to raw value sugar are 1.07 for cane sugar, 1.07 for U.S. beet sugar, and 1.087 for beet sugar in other countries.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Preliminary.
4/ United States data include continental beet and cane and Hawaii cane sugar, and Puerto Rico cane sugar.
5/ French data exclude production of cane sugar in Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Reunion which are listed separately.
6/ Indian data include production of Khandsari sugar, a native type, semi- white centrifugal sugar. Estimated output of Khandsari sugar in thousands of tons (raw value equivalent) is as follows: 1994/95- 740; 1995/96 - 620; 1996/97 - 770; 1997/98 - 800.
7/ Includes all 6 republics of the Former Yugoslavia.
MAY 1997 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND CROP ASSESSMENT DIV., FAS, USDA
SUGARBEET AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION
World and Selected Count
AREA BEET SUGARBEET RAW RECOVERY SUGAR
COUNTRY/YEAR HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION SUGAR RATE YIELD
1,000 Ha MT/H 1,000 MT 1,000 MT Percent MT/Ha
NORTH AMERICA
United States 2/
1995/96 575 44.3 25,460 3,553 14.0 6.18
1996/97 535 45.1 24,104 3,629 15.1 6.78
1997/98 MAY 577 45.3 26,134 3,901 14.9 6.76
EUROPEAN UNION
Austria
1995/96 52 55.5 2,885 482 16.7 9.27
1996/97 52 60.2 3,131 537 17.2 10.33
1997/98 MAY 51 54.9 2,800 478 17.1 9.37
Belgium-Luxembourg
1995/96 104 60.5 6,291 965 15.3 9.28
1996/97 103 59.2 6,100 1,036 17.0 10.06
1997/98 MAY 103 58.3 6,000 985 16.4 9.56
Denmark
1995/96 67 44.6 2,985 470 15.7 7.01
1996/97 68 51.5 3,500 548 15.7 8.06
1997/98 MAY 68 50.0 3,400 507 14.9 7.46
France
1995/96 429 58.6 25,121 4,564 18.2 10.64
1996/97 422 57.8 24,400 4,594 18.8 10.89
1997/98 MAY 420 58.3 24,500 4,534 18.5 10.80
Germany
1995/96 519 50.2 26,049 4,159 16.0 8.01
1996/97 514 52.5 27,000 4,558 16.9 8.87
1997/98 MAY 512 51.8 26,500 4,331 16.3 8.46
Greece
1995/96 42 61.0 2,561 312 12.2 7.43
1996/97 40 59.5 2,380 288 12.1 7.20
1997/98 MAY 50 60.0 3,000 362 12.1 7.24
Ireland
1995/96 35 44.2 1,547 241 15.6 6.89
1996/97 34 41.8 1,420 247 17.4 7.26
1997/98 MAY 32 40.6 1,300 220 16.9 6.88
Italy
1995/96 285 45.4 12,932 1,621 12.5 5.69
1996/97 248 45.0 11,150 1,561 14.0 6.29
1997/98 MAY 275 45.5 12,500 1,565 12.5 5.69
Netherlands
1995/96 116 55.6 6,449 1,074 16.7 9.26
1996/97 116 58.0 6,728 1,125 16.7 9.70
1997/98 MAY 116 56.0 6,500 1,087 16.7 9.37
Portugal
1995/96 1 80.0 80 5 6.3 5.00
1996/97 1 55.0 55 3 5.5 3.00
1997/98 MAY 4 50.0 200 30 15.0 7.50
Spain
1995/96 173 43.1 7,450 1,189 16.0 6.87
1996/97 160 48.1 7,700 1,323 17.2 8.27
1997/98 MAY 151 45.0 6,800 1,196 17.6 7.92
United Kingdom
1995/96 170 49.2 8,360 1,322 15.8 7.78
1996/97 170 49.6 8,432 1,608 19.1 9.46
1997/98 MAY 170 49.4 8,400 1,441 17.2 8.48
Total European Union
1995/96 2,085 51.0 106,298 16,967 16.0 8.14
1996/97 2,021 52.4 105,896 18,004 17.0 8.91
1997/98 MAY 2,046 51.7 105,800 17,341 16.4 8.48
EAST EUROPE
Albania
1995/96 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1996/97 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1997/98 MAY 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
Bulgaria
1995/96 9 15.0 135 15 11.1 1.67
1996/97 8 17.5 140 9 6.4 1.13
1997/98 MAY 8 8.8 70 9 12.9 1.13
Czech Republic
1995/96 93 39.9 3,712 477 12.9 5.13
1996/97 104 41.5 4,316 610 14.1 5.87
1997/98 MAY 90 38.0 3,420 470 13.7 5.22
Hungary
1995/96 122 36.6 4,460 484 10.9 3.97
1996/97 118 39.7 4,687 490 10.5 4.15
1997/98 MAY 120 37.5 4,500 480 10.7 4.00
Poland
1995/96 384 34.7 13,309 1,714 12.9 4.46
1996/97 451 38.7 17,460 2,497 14.3 5.54
1997/98 MAY 400 35.0 14,000 1,900 13.6 4.75
Romania
1995/96 133 20.0 2,655 270 10.2 2.03
1996/97 135 20.3 2,735 300 11.0 2.22
1997/98 MAY 140 18.6 2,600 315 12.1 2.25
Slovakia
1995/96 35 33.6 1,176 145 12.3 4.14
1996/97 42 42.4 1,780 246 13.8 5.86
1997/98 MAY 42 42.4 1,780 246 13.8 5.86
Yugoslavia 3/
1995/96 94 25.8 2,425 242 10.0 2.57
1996/97 106 35.0 3,710 409 11.0 3.86
1997/98 MAY 91 28.3 2,575 280 10.9 3.08
Total Eastern Europe
1995/96 877 32.0 28,022 3,357 12.0 3.83
1996/97 971 36.0 34,978 4,571 13.1 4.71
1997/98 MAY 898 32.4 29,095 3,710 12.8 4.13
FSU-12
Belarus
1995/96 55 21.3 1,172 152 13.0 2.76
1996/97 58 19.0 1,100 140 12.7 2.41
1997/98 MAY 58 19.0 1,100 140 12.7 2.41
Kazakstan
1995/96 45 15.6 700 50 7.1 1.11
1996/97 50 12.0 600 65 10.8 1.30
1997/98 MAY 50 12.0 600 65 10.8 1.30
FSU - 12
Kyrgyzstan
1995/96 12 13.3 160 15 9.4 1.25
1996/97 12 17.9 215 15 7.0 1.25
1997/98 MAY 12 17.0 204 15 7.4 1.25
Moldova
1995/96 74 25.9 1,913 190 9.9 2.57
1996/97 75 24.0 1,800 190 10.6 2.53
1997/98 MAY 75 24.0 1,800 190 10.6 2.53
Russia
1995/96 1,085 17.6 19,110 2,060 10.8 1.90
1996/97 1,013 16.3 16,500 1,750 10.6 1.73
1997/98 MAY 980 17.3 17,000 1,800 10.6 1.84
Ukraine
1995/96 1,448 19.3 28,000 3,800 13.6 2.62
1996/97 1,390 18.3 25,500 2,900 11.4 2.09
1997/98 MAY 1,300 19.5 25,400 2,850 11.2 2.19
Total FSU-12
1995/96 2,719 18.8 51,055 6,267 12.3 2.30
1996/97 2,598 17.6 45,715 5,060 11.1 1.95
1997/98 MAY 2,475 18.6 46,104 5,060 11.0 2.04
BALTICS
Latvia
1995/96 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
1996/97 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
1997/98 MAY 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
Lithuania
1995/96 32 25.9 830 80 9.6 2.50
1996/97 32 25.0 800 70 8.8 2.19
1997/98 MAY 32 25.0 800 70 8.8 2.19
Total Baltics
1995/96 52 21.7 1,130 115 10.2 2.21
1996/97 52 21.2 1,100 105 9.5 2.02
1997/98 MAY 52 21.2 1,100 105 9.5 2.02
MIDDLE EAST
Turkey
1995/96 309 35.6 10,989 1,375 12.5 4.45
1996/97 419 34.3 14,383 2,025 14.1 4.83
1997/98 MAY 450 33.6 15,100 2,200 14.6 4.89
ASIA
China 2/
1995/96 690 20.3 13,984 1,403 10.0 10.11
1996/97 690 20.1 13,900 1,400 10.1 8.90
1997/98 MAY 695 20.1 14,000 1,415 10.1 9.86
Japan 2/
1995/96 70 54.5 3,813 708 18.6 4.57
1996/97 70 47.1 3,295 623 18.9 4.81
1997/98 MAY 70 54.3 3,800 690 18.2 4.74
Subtotal
1995/96 7,377 32.6 240,751 33,745 14.0 4.57
1996/97 7,356 33.1 243,371 35,417 14.6 4.81
1997/98 MAY 7,263 33.2 241,133 34,422 14.3 4.74
Others
1995/96 386 41.3 15,954 2,238 14.0 5.80
1996/97 386 40.5 15,629 2,026 13.0 5.25
1997/98 MAY 387 39.4 15,260 1,976 12.9 5.11
WORLD
1995/96 7,763 33.1 256,705 35,983 14.0 4.64
1996/97 7,742 33.5 259,000 37,443 14.5 4.84
1997/98 MAY 7,650 33.5 256,393 36,398 14.2 4.76
1/ Refined beet sugar is converted to raw value by a factor of 1.07 in the United States and 1.087 in other countries.
2/ Produces cane sugar as well as beet sugar.
3/ Includes all 6 republics of the former Yugoslavia.
MAY 1997 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND CROP ASSESSMENT DIVISION, FAS USDA
SUGARBEET AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION
World and Selected Count
AREA BEET SUGARBEET RAW RECOVERY SUGAR
COUNTRY/YEAR HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION SUGAR RATE YIELD
1,000 Ha MT/H 1,000 MT 1,000 MT Percent MT/Ha
NORTH AMERICA
United States 2/
1995/96 575 44.3 25,460 3,553 14.0 6.18
1996/97 535 45.1 24,104 3,629 15.1 6.78
1997/98 MAY 577 45.3 26,134 3,901 14.9 6.76
EUROPEAN UNION
Austria
1995/96 52 55.5 2,885 482 16.7 9.27
1996/97 52 60.2 3,131 537 17.2 10.33
1997/98 MAY 51 54.9 2,800 478 17.1 9.37
Belgium-Luxembourg
1995/96 104 60.5 6,291 965 15.3 9.28
1996/97 103 59.2 6,100 1,036 17.0 10.06
1997/98 MAY 103 58.3 6,000 985 16.4 9.56
Denmark
1995/96 67 44.6 2,985 470 15.7 7.01
1996/97 68 51.5 3,500 548 15.7 8.06
1997/98 MAY 68 50.0 3,400 507 14.9 7.46
France
1995/96 429 58.6 25,121 4,564 18.2 10.64
1996/97 422 57.8 24,400 4,594 18.8 10.89
1997/98 MAY 420 58.3 24,500 4,534 18.5 10.80
Germany
1995/96 519 50.2 26,049 4,159 16.0 8.01
1996/97 514 52.5 27,000 4,558 16.9 8.87
1997/98 MAY 512 51.8 26,500 4,331 16.3 8.46
Greece
1995/96 42 61.0 2,561 312 12.2 7.43
1996/97 40 59.5 2,380 288 12.1 7.20
1997/98 MAY 50 60.0 3,000 362 12.1 7.24
Ireland
1995/96 35 44.2 1,547 241 15.6 6.89
1996/97 34 41.8 1,420 247 17.4 7.26
1997/98 MAY 32 40.6 1,300 220 16.9 6.88
Italy
1995/96 285 45.4 12,932 1,621 12.5 5.69
1996/97 248 45.0 11,150 1,561 14.0 6.29
1997/98 MAY 275 45.5 12,500 1,565 12.5 5.69
Netherlands
1995/96 116 55.6 6,449 1,074 16.7 9.26
1996/97 116 58.0 6,728 1,125 16.7 9.70
1997/98 MAY 116 56.0 6,500 1,087 16.7 9.37
Portugal
1995/96 1 80.0 80 5 6.3 5.00
1996/97 1 55.0 55 3 5.5 3.00
1997/98 MAY 4 50.0 200 30 15.0 7.50
Spain
1995/96 173 43.1 7,450 1,189 16.0 6.87
1996/97 160 48.1 7,700 1,323 17.2 8.27
1997/98 MAY 151 45.0 6,800 1,196 17.6 7.92
United Kingdom
1995/96 170 49.2 8,360 1,322 15.8 7.78
1996/97 170 49.6 8,432 1,608 19.1 9.46
1997/98 MAY 170 49.4 8,400 1,441 17.2 8.48
Total European Union
1995/96 2,085 51.0 106,298 16,967 16.0 8.14
1996/97 2,021 52.4 105,896 18,004 17.0 8.91
1997/98 MAY 2,046 51.7 105,800 17,341 16.4 8.48
EAST EUROPE
Albania
1995/96 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1996/97 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1997/98 MAY 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
Bulgaria
1995/96 9 15.0 135 15 11.1 1.67
1996/97 8 17.5 140 9 6.4 1.13
1997/98 MAY 8 8.8 70 9 12.9 1.13
Czech Republic
1995/96 93 39.9 3,712 477 12.9 5.13
1996/97 104 41.5 4,316 610 14.1 5.87
1997/98 MAY 90 38.0 3,420 470 13.7 5.22
Hungary
1995/96 122 36.6 4,460 484 10.9 3.97
1996/97 118 39.7 4,687 490 10.5 4.15
1997/98 MAY 120 37.5 4,500 480 10.7 4.00
Poland
1995/96 384 34.7 13,309 1,714 12.9 4.46
1996/97 451 38.7 17,460 2,497 14.3 5.54
1997/98 MAY 400 35.0 14,000 1,900 13.6 4.75
Romania
1995/96 133 20.0 2,655 270 10.2 2.03
1996/97 135 20.3 2,735 300 11.0 2.22
1997/98 MAY 140 18.6 2,600 315 12.1 2.25
Slovakia
1995/96 35 33.6 1,176 145 12.3 4.14
1996/97 42 42.4 1,780 246 13.8 5.86
1997/98 MAY 42 42.4 1,780 246 13.8 5.86
Yugoslavia 3/
1995/96 94 25.8 2,425 242 10.0 2.57
1996/97 106 35.0 3,710 409 11.0 3.86
1997/98 MAY 91 28.3 2,575 280 10.9 3.08
Total Eastern Europe
1995/96 877 32.0 28,022 3,357 12.0 3.83
1996/97 971 36.0 34,978 4,571 13.1 4.71
1997/98 MAY 898 32.4 29,095 3,710 12.8 4.13
FSU-12
Belarus
1995/96 55 21.3 1,172 152 13.0 2.76
1996/97 58 19.0 1,100 140 12.7 2.41
1997/98 MAY 58 19.0 1,100 140 12.7 2.41
Kazakstan
1995/96 45 15.6 700 50 7.1 1.11
1996/97 50 12.0 600 65 10.8 1.30
1997/98 MAY 50 12.0 600 65 10.8 1.30
FSU - 12
Kyrgyzstan
1995/96 12 13.3 160 15 9.4 1.25
1996/97 12 17.9 215 15 7.0 1.25
1997/98 MAY 12 17.0 204 15 7.4 1.25
Moldova
1995/96 74 25.9 1,913 190 9.9 2.57
1996/97 75 24.0 1,800 190 10.6 2.53
1997/98 MAY 75 24.0 1,800 190 10.6 2.53
Russia
1995/96 1,085 17.6 19,110 2,060 10.8 1.90
1996/97 1,013 16.3 16,500 1,750 10.6 1.73
1997/98 MAY 980 17.3 17,000 1,800 10.6 1.84
Ukraine
1995/96 1,448 19.3 28,000 3,800 13.6 2.62
1996/97 1,390 18.3 25,500 2,900 11.4 2.09
1997/98 MAY 1,300 19.5 25,400 2,850 11.2 2.19
Total FSU-12
1995/96 2,719 18.8 51,055 6,267 12.3 2.30
1996/97 2,598 17.6 45,715 5,060 11.1 1.95
1997/98 MAY 2,475 18.6 46,104 5,060 11.0 2.04
BALTICS
Latvia
1995/96 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
1996/97 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
1997/98 MAY 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
Lithuania
1995/96 32 25.9 830 80 9.6 2.50
1996/97 32 25.0 800 70 8.8 2.19
1997/98 MAY 32 25.0 800 70 8.8 2.19
Total Baltics
1995/96 52 21.7 1,130 115 10.2 2.21
1996/97 52 21.2 1,100 105 9.5 2.02
1997/98 MAY 52 21.2 1,100 105 9.5 2.02
MIDDLE EAST
Turkey
1995/96 309 35.6 10,989 1,375 12.5 4.45
1996/97 419 34.3 14,383 2,025 14.1 4.83
1997/98 MAY 450 33.6 15,100 2,200 14.6 4.89
ASIA
China 2/
1995/96 690 20.3 13,984 1,403 10.0 10.11
1996/97 690 20.1 13,900 1,400 10.1 8.90
1997/98 MAY 695 20.1 14,000 1,415 10.1 9.86
Japan 2/
1995/96 70 54.5 3,813 708 18.6 4.57
1996/97 70 47.1 3,295 623 18.9 4.81
1997/98 MAY 70 54.3 3,800 690 18.2 4.74
Subtotal
1995/96 7,377 32.6 240,751 33,745 14.0 4.57
1996/97 7,356 33.1 243,371 35,417 14.6 4.81
1997/98 MAY 7,263 33.2 241,133 34,422 14.3 4.74
Others
1995/96 386 41.3 15,954 2,238 14.0 5.80
1996/97 386 40.5 15,629 2,026 13.0 5.25
1997/98 MAY 387 39.4 15,260 1,976 12.9 5.11
WORLD
1995/96 7,763 33.1 256,705 35,983 14.0 4.64
1996/97 7,742 33.5 259,000 37,443 14.5 4.84
1997/98 MAY 7,650 33.5 256,393 36,398 14.2 4.76
1/ Refined beet sugar is converted to raw value by a factor of 1.07 in the United
States and 1.087 in other countries.
2/ Produces cane sugar as well as beet sugar.
3/ Includes all 6 republics of the former Yugoslavia.
MAY 1997 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND CROP ASSESSMENT DIVISION, FAS USDA
World grain production (wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice) for 1997/98 is forecast at 1,854.6 million tons, down 4.0 million or less than 1 percent from the record level set in 1996/97. World wheat production is forecast at 578.4 million ton, down 2.8 million or less than 1 percent from last season. The wheat crops are expected to be lower in the major exporting countries--Australia, Canada, the European Union, Argentina, and the United States. In addition, the wheat crops in Northwest Africa are expected to be lower due to drought. However, wheat production is forecast to increase from the 1996/97 level in China, India, and the FSU-12.
World coarse grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 898.9 million tons, down 1.1 million or less than 1 percent from 1996/97. Coarse grain output is projected lower in China, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and the European Union, while higher in the United States and FSU-12.
World rice production for 1997/98 is forecast at 377.3 million tons, down 0.1 million or less than 1 percent from 1996/97. Total foreign rice production is projected marginally higher; however, the United States is forecast lower than 1996/97. Country level supply and distribution estimates will be detailed for rice on July 11, 1997.
Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-1572
E-mail: rocke@fas.usda.gov
World oilseed production for 1997/98 is forecast at 273.0 million tons, up 15.2 million or 6 percent from 1996/97. Total foreign oilseed production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 192.2 million tons, up 9.2 million or 5 percent from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at 80.8 million tons, up 6.0 million or 8 percent from last year.
Nearly seventy percent of the increase in total foreign oilseed production for 1997/98 is due to an increase in the forecast of world soybean output to a record 72.8 million tons, up 5.1 million or 8 percent over last year. Besides soybeans, the additional increase in oilseed production over 1996/97 is projected to come primarily from an increase in rapeseed output. Canada, especially, is projected to harvest a near-record canola crop.
The projected U.S. oilseed crop for 1997/98, at a record 80.8 million tons, reflects a record soybean crop of 70.8 million tons, up 6.0 million or 9 percent above last year. Overall, the U.S. soybean supply in 1997/98 will increase 6 percent, reflecting the smallest carryin stocks since the early 1970s. U.S. soybean area in 1997/98 is projected up 2.1 million hectares, the highest since 1982/83. Yield is forecast above average at 2.61 metric tons per hectare, second only to the record 2.78 tons in 1994/95.
With a projected 15.2 million-ton gain in world oilseed production and a total foreign oilseed crop that will likely outweigh a modest increase in foreign demand, downward pressure will be placed on U.S. and world oilseed prices. U.S. soybean prices are projected to range between $5.50 to $7.00 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are projected at between $190 to $225 per short ton, and soybean oil prices between 22.0 and 26.0 cents per pound.
Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0881 E-mail: paschal@fas.usda.gov
Total grain production (excluding rice) in the European Union (EU) for 1997/98 is projected at 199.8 million tons, down 1 percent from last year's record crop of 202.7 million. Overall, grain yields are forecast lower for 1997/98 with an average yield of 5.34 tons per hectare compared with last year's record yield of 5.56. The 1997/98 harvested area is forecast at 37.4 million hectares, up 3 percent from last season. Though production is estimated lower for 1997/98, it would still represent the EU's second-largest crop.
EU grain yields for 1997/98 are forecast lower due to a number of factors. Weather to date has not been as favorable as last year, especially in Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Furthermore, the overall quality of land returning to production as a result of the reduction in set-aside will be a factor lowering average yields. In addition, a slight increase in area planted to lower-yielding spring varieties in some EU areas is expected because of weather-related delays in planting last fall. Planting delays because of excessive rainfall were reported in eastern Germany, Italy, and Spain.
Though EU grains yields are projected lower in 1997/98, the yield trend is upward. The tendency of producers in the EU to move towards higher-yielding feed-wheat varieties is continuing. This is encouraged by the ability of flour manufacturers to use wheat gluten to achieve needed protein levels in their flour. However, growers of malting-quality barley are being paid substantial premiums for their crops.
Spain experienced a serious drought from January to April 1997, and prospective grain production is down 4.7 million tons from last year's unusually large level, to 15.5 million. Portugal suffered from the same drought and is expected see a drop in production of 6 percent, to 1.3 million tons. Dry conditions in southern France and southern Italy during the same time period are expected to reduce durum wheat yields. Dryness across the bread-wheat growing areas of the United Kingdom and France was not severe and rains beginning the week of April 27 have improved conditions. Weather across Germany has been mostly favorable, and yield is projected to be similar to last year and allowing production to increase as harvested-area increases. However, the EU's final crop size can vary substantially because of weather factor over the next few months.
The mandatory set-aside rate for the EU 1997/98 grain crop has been reduced to 5 percent from 10 percent in 1996/97. Nevertheless, harvested-area is expected to increase only 3 percent. Much of the remaining land will be put into voluntary set-aside rather than into production because of attractive compensation levels.
Paul Provance, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 720-0882 E-mail: provance@fas.usda.gov