March 1997
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-324) March 11, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on April 14, 1997.
Near-normal rainfall prevailed elsewhere in southern Brazil. During February, showers covered the major soybean areas of southern Brazil. During this time soybeans advanced from the reproductive and filling stages. Rainfall in southern Rio Grande do Sul increased irrigation supplies but slowed rice harvest. Rainfall was particularly heavy during the weeks of February 2 - 8 and February 16 - 22. During the first week of March, moderate showers slowed early soybean harvesting across the major crop areas. Heavier showers possibly caused some flooding in portions of Goias and western Minas Gerais.
During January 1997, rainfall was near to above normal in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. A general drying trend dominated Queensland's main sugarcane region as well as livestock areas from southern South Australia to western Queensland. During the first week of February, moderate to heavy showers lingered over northern sections of Queensland's cotton and sorghum belts. During February 9 - 15, heavy rain returned to a broad section of the main sorghum and cotton belts of the east. Some flooding was likely again from the western edge of Queensland's summer crop areas through the Darling Downs region to coastal sugarcane areas of northern New South Wales. Damage to cotton was possible. During February 16 - 22, rain fell throughout Western Australia's main agricultural areas. This moisture was especially welcomed for livestock. Central and western Queensland and New South Wales were favorably dry. During the week of February 23 through March 1, moderate to locally heavy showers returned to Queensland's sorghum and cotton areas. The northern cotton remained unfavorably wet. Cotton harvesting typically begins in April. From March 2 - 8, unseasonable showers persisted in Queensland's main sorghum and cotton areas. Moderate to heavy rainfall kept maturing cotton and sorghum unfavorably wet but added to abundant soil moisture reserves that will ultimately aid winter wheat planting.
During January 1997, precipitation was more than twice the normal amount across Morocco. This provided for adequate subsoil moisture for winter grains in the jointing stage. In contrast, precipitation during January was well below normal in central and eastern Algeria and northern Tunisia, with above- normal rain falling in western Algeria. During the first week of February, dry and unusually warm weather prevailed over the winter grains areas in Morocco. That week, light showers fell in central and eastern Algeria and Tunisia, temporarily stabilizing winter grain conditions. During the rest of February, with a few minor exceptions, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia were dry. During March 1 - 8, drought continued in Algeria and Tunisia while persistent dryness worsened conditions for Morocco's winter grains in or entering the heading stage. A few showers, mostly less than 10 millimeters, brought little if any relief to drought-stressed crops in Algeria and Tunisia.
Cocoa bean production in Brazil is expected to increase in the near future as a result of several measures being taken by the Cocoa Research and Extension Commission (CEPLAC), according to a report by the U.S. agricultural counselor in Brasilia. CEPLAC has announced that three new varieties of cocoa trees, potentially resistant to witches-broom disease, will be made available to Bahia's cocoa producers. Five more varieties are expected to be available by early-1998. Additionally, CEPLAC is helping cocoa producers to boost productivity by changing the tree density on cocoa plantations. However, it will be a while before the impact on production can be assessed.
The 1996/97 crop forecast of 198,000 tons remains unchanged despite recent rains in Bahia, the main cocoa-producing area, that have provoked market speculation that the upcoming mid-year crop will be larger than last year.
Chile's walnut production during the 1996/97 season (harvested in early-1997) is forecast at 10,600 tons (inshell basis), up 8 percent from 1995/96, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Santiago. The upturn reflects favorable weather during the growing season and a slight increase in harvested area.
By Chilean standards, the quality of the 1996/97 walnut crop is reported to be excellent. However, by international standards, most Chilean walnuts are considered to be of poor quality because the fruit on the trees does not mature uniformly, which prolongs the harvest and increases the risk of mold formation. This problem is exacerbated by the large number of walnut varieties scattered throughout the country, hampering efficient orchard maintenance. Walnuts in Chile are harvested when they are ripe, which produces a darker kernel than in most Northern Hemisphere countries.
Although walnuts are planted from the Third Region through the Ninth, over 90 percent are planted in the central areas, specifically Region Five, the Metropolitan Region, and Region Six. The highest-quality walnuts are produced in Region Five where dry weather during the harvest (March through April) allows producers to pick a dry, mold free nut. Other producing regions often are plagued by rains during the harvest season.
The 1996/97 cocoa crop in Cote d'Ivoire has been revised to 1.10 million tons, up from the October 1996 forecast (WAP 10-96) of 1.05 million, according to the U.S. agricultural attache in Abidjan. The revision reflects improved prospects for the mid-crop, as the main crop forecast remains unchanged at 900,000 tons. Mid-crop prospects are favorable because of good weather and increased production from hybrid varieties in the western regions.
According to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Jakarta, Indonesia's 1996/97 cocoa bean production estimate has been revised to 325,000 tons, up 16 percent from the October 1996 forecast (WAP 10-96) of 280,000 tons due to greater-than-anticipated area expansion and an increase in bearing tree numbers. The production estimate for the 1995/96 season has been revised from 275,000 tons to 305,000. For the 1994/95 season, the estimate has been raised slightly--from 255,000 tons to 257,000.
South Africa's 1996/97 corn crop is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 1.7 million or 17 percent from last season's bumper crop, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Pretoria. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, up 3 percent from 1995/96 despite urging by the National Maize Producers' Association (NAMPO) to reduce corn area. In addition, according to South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee, area planted to white corn decreased and yellow corn increased in line with the total demand for the product. White corn totaled 1.8 million hectares, down 110,000 from 1995/96; while yellow corn area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares, up 164,000 from last season. White corn area declined because the export market is limited and transportation costs from the traditional western white corn producing areas to harbors are high. Yield is estimated slightly above the 5-year average at 2.50 tons per hectare, but below last year's level of 3.09 tons.
Soil moisture at planting was the best in years and the crop benefitted from regular rainfall early in the season. However, periods of dry weather and stressful heat in February affected parts of the Maize Triangle, especially the Western Transvaal. There also are reports of crop stress and yield loss in portions of the eastern corn area due to dryness. Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have eased crop stress and stabilized yield prospects. The crop is now in grain-fill and harvesting will start in April.
The U.S. agricultural counselor in Madrid puts Spain's 1996/97 almond crop at 61,500 tons (shelled basis), down 10 percent from the preliminary forecast of 67,800 (WAP 9-96), but up 36 percent from the drought-reduced crop in 1995/96. Dramatically increased rainfall precipitated the recovery in production.
According to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Madrid, Spain's 1996/97 hazelnut crop has been revised to 6,500 tons (inshell basis), down 35 percent from the preliminary estimate (WAP 09-96) of 10,000 and down 56 percent from 1995/96. The short crop is the result of cold, rainy weather during pollination.
Sub-freezing temperatures on February 15 and 16 caused significant damage to Turkey's citrus crops along the Mediterranean coast, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Ankara. Temperatures dropped as low as minus 9 degrees Celsius and lasted as long as 56 hours in some areas. Preliminary assessments indicate as much as 30 percent of both the orange and lemon crops, 40 percent of the grapefruit crop, and 15 percent of the tangerine crop had not been picked and were lost as a result of the freeze. Additionally, trees sustained significant damage, precipitating projections of low output during the 1997/98 season.
Venezuela's 1996/97 coffee estimate has been revised downward to 958,000 bags, 13 percent below the December 1996 forecast (WAP 12-96) of 1.1 million bags, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Caracas. Excessive and protracted rainfall in several key coffee-growing regions limited the size of this year's crop.
Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at 13.9 million tons (milled basis), down 500,000 from last month and 3 percent from last season's record crop, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Bangkok. Harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares, down slightly from last season. Yield is estimated at 2.29 tons per hectare (paddy basis), down from the 1995/96 record level of 2.36 tons, but slightly above the 5-year average of 2.27 tons.
The U.S. agricultural counselor reported that the 1996 monsoon season started earlier than usual with continuous, heavy rains causing flooding in the lower North and Central Plains. As a consequence, a significant number of farmers in the low-lying lands skipped growing a traditional main crop and switched to the non-photo-period sensitive, high-yielding varieties (NPPS) that proved successful in the 1995/96 crop year--when flooding was more of a problem. Also, the heavy rains in October affected pollination during the flowering stage, causing yields to be lower than normal. In the Northeast, production of fragrant rice declined due to a prolonged dry spell during the planting period (July - August). Farmers who delayed transplanting their crop in September through early-October received lower yields than usual as the nursery plants were too old and the reproductive period was too short. A good crop in the North could not compensate for the reduction in the Northeast. As a result, 1996/97 main-crop planted area and yield dropped from last year.
Abundant water supplies in most of the reservoirs in the Chao Phaya system should allow farmers to expand their planting of the 1996/97 second crop which is likely to be larger than last season. Once again this season, there will be a double, second crop with the first harvest in March/April and the second in June/July. Given the water supply situation, yields should be excellent for both harvests. It is of interest to note that there may be a new cropping pattern emerging designed to avoid flooding and it could possibly expand to other areas. The changing cropping pattern seems to work well in the lower North and Central Plains where farmers are shifting from a long-maturity, photo-sensitive, rainfed main crop to a short-maturity, NPPS, irrigated second crop. This causes less rice to enter the market at the end of the year in December. The cropping pattern in the Upper North and Northeast remains unchanged.
In February, below-normal precipitation limited moisture recharge in most of Ukraine and parts of the North Caucasus and middle Volga Valley regions in Russia. Winter grain areas in Belarus, the Baltics, and northern Russia received above-normal precipitation. There were two episodes of unusually cold weather in February. The first episode occurred from February 2-7 and the second occurred from February 17-21. In both cases, snow cover provided sufficient protection from significant damage to winter grains. However, some localized damage may have occurred, especially in early-February in Ukraine, where snow cover was variable. On February 22, a warming trend began spreading eastward over most areas, with temperatures rising to well above-normal by month's end. The mild weather caused crops to lose cold hardiness and melted protective snow cover in western and southern areas. However, the lack of snow cover and several days of dry weather in late-February did provide a window of opportunity for early-season fieldwork.
Since early-March, unusually mild weather continued to prevail over winter grains in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics. The continued mild weather has caused snow cover to diminish in western and southern areas about 1 month earlier than usual. The lack of snow cover in Ukraine, extreme southern Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics along with below-normal precipitation continued to allow early-season fieldwork. Temperatures were high enough in southwestern Ukraine and Moldova to prompt early greening of winter grains.
Source: NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
Durum wheat production for 1996/97 in selected foreign durum-producing countries is estimated at 28.2 million tons, up 6.2 million or 28 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 15.6 million hectares, up 1.41 million from last season while yield is estimated at 1.81 tons per hectare, up 16 percent from 1995/96. The European Union (EU-15), Canada, and the United States account for nearly 60 percent of the global production. Approximately 5 percent of all wheat grown is durum and is produced primarily in the 18 countries discussed below. The 1996/97 crop is forecast to be significantly higher than last year due to increases for the EU-15, Morocco, and Tunisia.
United States: Total U.S. durum wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 3.2 million tons, up 13 percent from last season. According to National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) durum harvested area is estimated at 1.4 million hectares, up 6 percent from 1995/96. About 5 percent of all U.S. wheat grown in 1996/97 is durum and over 75 percent of the U.S. durum wheat crop is produced in North Dakota. Cool, wet weather in North Dakota during April and May delayed durum seeding and by late May planting lagged three weeks behind average. Cooler-than-normal temperatures for the fourth consecutive year, with near-normal rainfall, resulted in a below-average yield of 2.20 tons per hectare.
EU-15: Durum wheat output for 1996/97 is estimated at 8.3 million tons, up 2.2 million or 36 percent from 1996/97. Production increases are estimated for most EU member States. Total harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares, up 0.4 million or 13 percent from last season. The rise in durum area is attributed to generous EU subsidies which make it profitable to sow on marginally productive areas, a decrease in set-aside area, and Spain's recovery from drought. After several years of unfavorable weather in Spain, adequate rainfall covered most of the growing region. As a result of this favorable weather, Spain is estimated to produce 1.6 million tons, up 1.3 million tons or over 400 percent from 1995/96. Also, Italy's production is estimated higher at 4.1 million tons, up 0.3 million from last season due to favorable weather and an increase in yield. For the remainder of the EU, growing conditions were generally favorable in the durum-producing regions. Yield is estimated at 2.65 tons per hectare, up 20 percent from last year.
Canada: Production of durum wheat is estimated at 4.7 million tons, up 50,000 or 1 percent from the harvest of a year earlier. Durum area is estimated at 2.1 million hectares, down 1 percent from last season. Untimely rains, cool weather, and a slowly retreating snowcover delayed plantings, while summer weather was variable and early snowfall covered some unharvested summer grains in the field. Yield is estimated to be slightly above the 5-year average.
Argentina: Production of durum wheat is estimated at a record 190,000 tons, up 90,000 or 90 percent from last season based on record area and yield. Weather was favorable this season across the durum-growing areas of southeastern Buenos Aires Province.
Former Soviet Union: Russia and Kazakstan are the primary producers of durum in the countries of the former Soviet Union. Neither country publishes durum area or production estimates; however, Russia's durum production for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.8 million tons, up 150,000 or 9 percent from the last season due to an increase in area. Although a cold spring delayed planting in Russia, warm weather followed allowing rapid spring-grain plantings. Generally, dry weather persisted through the growing season keeping yield below the average of 0.93 tons per hectare, but slightly above the yield of previous season. In Kazakstan, production is estimated at 0.6 million tons, up 20 percent from last season's drought-affected crop although weather was unfavorably dry, but the dryness was less widespread than 1995/96.
India: Durum production for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.8 million tons, down 100,000 from last year. Yield decreased from last season's record due to hot temperatures in February and March of 1996. In addition, marketing problems experienced by farmers in the Punjab last season decreased area since a portion of the durum crop didn't meet the stringent specifications established by the State procurement agency, resulting in lower prices.
Turkey: Durum output for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.5 million tons, up 0.2 million or 15 percent from last year's crop. Favorable rainfall and temperatures increased yield over last year, to 1.67 tons per hectare. Harvested area is estimated at 0.9 million hectares, up 12 percent from last season as farmers responded to higher support prices. The "sunni" insect, which regularly infests the crop, was relatively inactive compared to previous years.
Syria: Durum production for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.4 million tons, up 150,000 or 11 percent from 1995/96. Harvested area is up 50,000 hectares from the previous season and yield is estimated at a record level due to evenly distributed rainfall. Over one-third of the total-wheat area is grown on irrigated land and is increasing due to the drilling of additional wells and implementation of irrigation projects in northeastern Syria. About 30 percent of all wheat grown is durum.
Algeria: The 1996/97 durum crop is estimated at 1.0 million tons, up 100,000 or 11 percent from last year as generally favorable weather occurred in many parts of the durum-growing areas. Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares, virtually unchanged from 1995/96. Almost 70 percent of the total area sown to wheat is durum, which is primarily located in the eastern and central production areas.
Morocco: The durum output for 1996/97 is estimated at 2.2 million tons, up 1.7 million or 340 percent from the 1995/96 drought-reduced crop. Throughout the growing season, the durum wheat crop received excellent weather which boosted yield to a record 1.83 tons per hectare. Durum area is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, up 50 percent from last season. Slightly less than half the wheat grown in Morocco is durum wheat.
Tunisia: Durum production for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.6 million tons, up 1.2 million or 245 percent from the previous season's poor crop. After two consecutive small crops, the country experienced excellent weather across the grain growing regions--producing a record yield of 1.80 tons per hectare, up 114 percent from 1995/96. Harvested area is estimated at 0.9 million hectares, up 61 percent from 1995/96 and the highest area in 17 years. About three-fourths of all wheat grown is durum and production is centered in the northern regions.
Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-1572
E-mail: rocke@fas.usda.gov
A Washington D.C.-based Foreign Agricultural Service analyst and the U.S. agricultural attache in Sao Paulo traveled in Brazil's northwestern states of Mato Grosso, Rondonia, and Amazonas during January and February 1997. The team met with government officials, traders, investors, and producers to better understand the current limitations on soybean production in these states. They also studied the effect that a new export route along the Madeira River will have on potential soybean production in Brazil's northwestern states. The itinerary included Rondonopolis, Campo Novo do Parecis, Sapezal, Campos de Julho, in Mato Grosso; Cerejeiras and Porto Velho in Rondonia; and Humaita, Manaus, and Itacoatiara in Amazonas.
Northwest Corridor Overview Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer with output for 1996/97 estimated at 27.0 million tons. This production level is second only to the United States making Brazil a major competitor in international markets. Moving soybeans to Brazilian ports for export remains expensive and inefficient due to inadequate transportation and storage infrastructure. This impedes Brazil from strengthening its domestic and international marketing of soybeans and products. Investments by a Brazilian private-public partnership are being made in the Northwest Corridor, an area in western Brazil along the Madeira River, and results are already being seen. This new export route, set to open officially in April 1997, will stimulate agricultural production in northwestern Brazil and will provide a new outlet for agricultural exports. Soybean exports from this new export route are expected to reach 300,000 tons for marketing year (MY) 1997, of which 200,000 are already under contract, 600,000 tons for MY 1998, and 1.2 million tons for MY 1999. Soybeans, principally from the northwestern part of the state of Mato Grosso (from the Chapada do Parecis area), currently are being trucked approximately 900 kilometers (560 miles) to the port of Porto Velho in Rondonia state where they are stored or transferred to barges. The beans will then be shipped by barge on the Madeira River to the floating-port facility at Itacoatiara. Itacoatiara is located on the Amazon River about 260 kilometers (160 miles) east of Manaus, the capital of the state of Amazonas. Itacoatiara's floating port has grain storage facilities capable of handling ocean-going vessels. Before the opening of this new export corridor, soybeans for export were trucked to the southern Atlantic ports of Paranagua and Santos, in Parana and Sao Paulo states respectively. Due to the long distance from ports of Paranagua and Santos and the resulting high transportation costs, northwestern states were the most expensive areas in Brazil to produce soybeans. At harvesting, peak transportation costs comprised over 30 percent of the soybeans' market value with costs ranging between $70 and $110 per ton. These high transportation costs put soybean production in northwestern Mato Grosso on the edge of economic viability. Further north in Mato Grosso and Rondonia, soybean production was not profitable.
TRANSPORTATION COSTS AND DISTANCE TO PORT
Estimated Cost Distance to Transportation
Distance to Paranagua of Transportation Porto Velho Cost Reduction
(km) ($/ton) (km) ($/ton)
Campo Novo 2,500 70 to 90 1,050 na
do Parecis
Sapezal 2,550 90 to 95 1,000 25
Campos de Julho 2,600 110 950 28
Vilhena 2,880 na 705 32
Carejeiras 3,000 na 829 40
Cacoal 3,100 na 477 na
Ariquemes 3,380 na 198 na
Source: Interviews with trade officials
The shipping cost to southern ports can also be measured in terms of time; it takes 10 days round-trip to drive to Paranagua from Campo Novo do Parecis under the best of conditions, assuming no delays at port and no mishaps on Brazil's poorly-maintained roads. Despite these costs, over 95 percent of the state's farmers shipped their soybeans to these ports by truck. Now, soybeans can be trucked north to the closer barge terminal at Porto Velho at much reduced cost. Estimates of cost reduction vary, but most are around $30 per ton. Trucks should be able to drive from Sapezal to Porto Velho and back in three days, effectively tripling the number of trucks available for transporting soybeans. Currently, trucking costs to Porto Velho are not well known because this is the first season for shipping on the Northwest Corridor; the first soybeans are expected to be shipped in March 1997. To the north and west of Sapezal, on the Chapada do Parecis, soybeans will be exported on the Northwest Corridor, according to field contacts. The eastern side of the Chapada do Parecis and producers further south will continue to export soybeans to the southern ports in Parana.
Soybean Producing Areas in the Northwestern Frontier
Soybeans are grown throughout Brazil; however, the largest concentration is in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, and in the Center-West state of Mato Grosso. Together these three states account for 67 percent of Brazil's soybean production. Potential growing area in northwestern Brazil is difficult to gauge; however, sources claim that 20 million hectares (50 million acres) are arable in this region. Mato Grosso is a relatively new area for soybean production, becoming commercially important in the early 1980's, and its importance is rapidly increasing. In Mato Grosso there are three main producing areas--Rondonopolis, the mid-north (near Diamantino), and the Chapada do Parecis in the northwest. The Chapada do Parecis is a plateau with an elevation of 600 meters (1,970 feet), 50 kilometers wide (30 miles), and extends 400 kilometers (250 miles) into southern Rondonia state on the west. The amount of arable land on this plateau is estimated at over 4 million hectares (10 million acres).
In the near term, the Chapada do Parecis is expected to have enormous production potential, with area expanding 50,000 to 100,000 hectares per year. Currently there are 1.35 million hectares (3 million acres) of soybeans on Mato Grosso's portion of the Chapada, producing 3.35 million tons of soybeans. On Rondonia's portion of the Chapada, there are 15,000 hectares (37,000 acres) in soybeans with a potential of 2.0 million hectares (5 million acres). Grain storage, inputs, and transportation to market are accessible. Technological knowledge of growing soybeans is available through the Mato Grosso Foundation, a public-private partnership.
The natural vegetation of the Chapada do Parecis is cerrado, or tropical savannah, and can be adapted for soybean cultivation. Soils on the Chapada are oxisols, an acidic soil needing corrective applications of lime every three years and fertilizer every year. The extensive use of agrichemicals has boosted average soybean yields on the Chapada to 2.5 tons per hectare (38 bushels/acre), although observed yields were between 3.0 and 4.2 tons/hectare (45 to 62 bushels/acre). Soybean yields are typically lower (2.1 tons/hectare, or 31 bushels/acre) for the first three years after the land has been cleared, and yields increase and stabilize for seven years before declining slightly and stabilizing again. Cost of production averages $380 per hectare, which does not include land clearing costs and liming ($300 per hectare). Currently, the largest soybean farm is 33,000 hectares (81,500 acres) while the average farm in the area around Campo Novo do Parecis is 1,700 hectares (4,200 acres). Soil conservation is widely practiced--no-till planting and contour farming on the pasture land closest to streams. Presently, soybeans are the only crop which is economically feasible to grow. If transportation costs are further reduced, crop diversification will become more feasible with corn, cotton, and sugarcane most likely to be included in rotation. Currently, crop rotation is minimal, although some of the early-soybean varieties (about 20 percent of Mato Grosso's production) are followed in rotation by "milhete", a type of corn with small kernels. Early-soybean varieties planted in this region mature in 109 days, medium varieties in 118 days, and late varieties mature in 128 days.
Average rainfall is over 2,400 millimeters per year (95 inches per year) and falls in a well defined rainy period from October to April, making the Chapada a productive place to grow soybeans. Stem canker and nematodes are a problem and need to be managed to increase yields. Resistant or tolerant varieties to stem canker have been introduced. No-till planting also has reduced the spread of nematodes because the soil is disturbed less than in conventional tilling.
Farmers interviewed in southern Rondonia's portion of the Chapada were enthusiastic about growing soybeans. Average farm size is smaller in southern Rondonia--100 to 200 hectares (250 to 500 acres) compared to 1,700 hectares (4,200 acres) in northwestern Mato Grosso. Before soybeans can be grown in this area the land needs to be cleared, requiring 6 hours per hectare with a tractor; however, farm machinery is in short supply and old. Soils here are more fertile than in northwestern Mato Grosso, but soil erosion may be a problem due to the smaller farm size and lack of capital.
Over the long term, reduced transportation costs are expected to continue to stimulate soybean production in northwestern Brazil, not only for the Chapada but also for the states of Acre, Amazonas, and Roraima. The states of Amazonas and Acre reportedly have approximately 5.0 million hectares (12 million acres) that are arable, but require development. These areas are at a lower elevation. Soils need to be drained and soybean varieties need to be developed which are better-suited to the climate. In addition, there is a lack of grain storage facilities, and roads from Porto Velho to Humaita need considerable investment.
Production potential in the state of Roraima is hard to gauge. Some successful soybean growers of northern Mato Grosso have visited Roraima and assert that there is plentiful savannah-type land within a reasonable distance from the port of Caracarai, located on a river (the Rio Branco) which feeds into the Amazon River. For production to become viable, investment in the infrastructure of Caracarai would have to be made, the Rio Branco would need to be mapped, and the soils in which soybeans would be planted would need to be limed. Soils near the port of Caracarai are similar to soils on the Chapada and this area has a higher elevation. Soybeans would be transhipped through Itacoatiara. Soybeans produced in Roraima would be on a northern hemisphere schedule--planting in May and harvesting in October.
SOYBEAN AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER
(hectares)
State Region 1996/97 1997/98 Potential
Mato Grosso Campo Novo 279,500 299,500 459,500
do Parecis
Mato Grosso Sapezal 180,000 200,000 330,000
Mato Grosso Campos de Julho 75,000 95,000 195,000
Mato Grosso Other Chapada 800,000 840,000 2,800,000
Rondonia Vilhena 0 5,000 30,000
Rondonia Cerejeiras 0 5,000 30,000
Rondonia Cacoal 0 5,000 40,000
Rondonia Ariquemes 0 5,000 30,000
Rondonia Other 15,000 20,000 1,900,000
Amazonas Humaita 0 0 60,000
Amazonas Other 0 0 2,400,000
Acre -- 0 0 2,500,000
Roraima -- 0 0 na
Total -- 1,349,500 1,474,500 10,774,500
Source: Interviews with trade sources
Infrastructure Development at Porto Velho and Porto Itacoatiara
Grain storage, roads, barges, and ports currently are being built to export soybeans from the Northwestern Corridor. Grain storage facilities currently total about 285,000 tons. At Campo Novo do Parecis there is storage of 63,000 tons, at Sapezal--117,000 tons, at Campos de Julho--60,000 tons, and at Porto Velho--45,000 tons. The construction of grain loading facilities at Porto Velho consists of two truck dumpers and a flow through rate of 800 tons/hour.
Starting March 10, 1997, soybeans from Sapezal will be loaded on 2,000 ton barges which have been specifically built for the Madeira River, and shipped 1,115 km (692 miles) to Itacoatiara. The Itacoatiara facility--the floating port on the Amazon River--is about 260 kilometers (160 miles) east of Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, and 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the mouth of the Madeira River. The barges will move agricultural products (for now only soybeans) on the Madeira River in convoys of 6, approximately 11,400 tons per convoy. Convoys will be transported downstream by pushers and tugboats and tracked by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Travel time to the port at Itacoatiara is three days. The river is navigable for these convoys 320 days per year. During the rainy season, channel depth is 45 meters (148 feet); however it drops to 10 meters (33 feet) during the dry season, in mid-September. The Madeira River presents many navigation hazards; it is a swift river (6 knots) and is dangerous because of shoals and floating debris such as logs. The river is not currently dredged and the convoys will need to have lateral movement and be able to turn 360 degrees. One concern is that when the convoys are going downstream they will lose mobility because of the strong current. The channels in the river currently are being mapped, using GPS satellite technology to create a digital database of the channels. This also will improve convoy safety and increase speed, allowing four trips per month to Itacoatiara.
Soybeans will be transferred from barges to Itacoatiara's 90,000 ton storage facility. The river depth at the floating port is 40 meters (130 feet) enabling vessels up to 150,000 tons to dock. The loading rate is 1,500 tons per hour from the storage facility; therefore, an oceangoing vessel of 150,000 tons can be easily loaded in under 6 days. The beans will then be shipped down the Amazon River and directly to major markets (e.g., Rotterdam). The first vessel, a cargo of 35,000 tons, is expected to begin loading operations on April 17, 1997.
Robert Tetrault, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0140
E-mail: tetrault@fas.usda.gov
Analysts from the Foreign Agricultural Service and the U.S. agricultural attaches' offices in Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires traveled through the summer oilseed and grain areas of Brazil and Argentina to assess the current agricultural situation in February 1997. Field analyses and meetings with industry groups were conducted in Mato Grosso, Rondonia, and Sao Paulo States in Brazil, and in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Cordoba Provinces in Argentina. Based in part on the information obtained, the Brazilian soybean production forecast for 1996/97 was revised by the USDA to a record 27.0 million tons, up 3.3 million from last year. Argentine soybean and corn production forecasts were revised to a record 13.5 and 14.5 million tons, up 0.9 and 3.4 million from 1995/96, respectively.
Brazil: Brazil is forecast to produce a record 27.0 million tons of soybeans from 11.8 million hectares in 1996/97. Yields are forecast at a record level of 2.29 tons per hectare, up 6 percent from 1995/96. Weather throughout most of Brazil has been very beneficial to soybean production in 1996/97 with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul.
Soybeans are grown throughout Brazil, however, the largest concentration is in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, and in the Center-West state of Mato Grosso. Together the three states account for 67 percent of Brazil's soybean production. Parana (25 percent of production) is forecast to produce a record crop due to the highly favorable rainfall throughout the season. Harvest of the early varieties begins in March, and farmers' concerns are for too much rain. Rio Grande do Sul (22 percent of production) experienced dryness early in the season. Rainfall has been normal since and near-average yields are forecast. In Mato Grosso (20 percent of production), weather was very favorable this year. Area is expanding on the Chapada do Parecis which is located in the northwest region. Approximately 20 percent of soybeans in Mato Grosso are lower-yielding, early varieties, bringing down the state's average yield to 2.5 tons per hectare. Farmers indicated that they planted early varieties to take advantage of premium prices at harvest and to avoid trucking bottlenecks.
Brazilian soybean area for 1996/97 is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, up 0.85 million from 1995/96. Area was forecast higher in response to several factors: high international and domestic prices for soybeans and soybean products; the Brazilian Government's debt rescheduling package for farmers; the elimination of the value-added tax ("Imposto sobre Circulacao de Mercadorias e Servicos" -ICMS) on soybean and soybean product exports; and relatively high returns from the marketing year (MY) 1995/96 harvest. Nevertheless, some problems continue for soybean growers due to financial difficulties not addressed by the official debt relief package, especially in the Center-West (in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias) where farm sizes are much bigger than in southern Brazil, and indebtedness is much higher.
Producers the team interviewed were enthusiastic about no-till planting and the future use of genetically modified (GMO) soybeans. No-till planting is used to conserve soil and limit the spread of cyst nematodes in Mato Grosso, according to farmers. GMO soybeans will be available in Brazil for field testing soon. Multinational investors were reluctant to introduce them without the existence of an enforceable cultivar law which is in progress in the Brazilian Government. GMO soybeans may be commercially available for the 1999/2000 crop. GMO soybeans are expected to facilitate crop management for farmers and lower production costs.
Argentina: Argentine summer-crop production (soybeans, corn, sunflowerseed, and sorghum) is forecast at a record 35.9 million tons, up 4.5 million or 15 percent from 1995/96 production. Weather for all Argentina's summer crops has been mostly beneficial except for a period of dryness in central Santa Fe and Cordoba Provinces and the "Mal de Rio Cuarto" disease which is in some corn areas. Area for all crops increased this year by over 2 million hectares in response to strong international prices. Most of the area expansion came at the expense of pasture. Record soybean, corn, and wheat crops and large sunflowerseed and sorghum crops will severely strain Argentina's grain-handling and exporting infrastructure, according to traders.
Soybean production is estimated at a record 13.5 million tons in 1996/97, up 860,000 tons or 7 percent from 1995/96. Increased area and better yields account for the increase. Area is estimated at a record 6.2 million hectares, up 4 percent from last year. More second-crop soybeans (soybeans following wheat directly in rotation) plus a switch from sunflowers account for the increased area. Yields are estimated at 2.18 tons per hectare, 4 percent lower than the average of 2.25 tons per hectare due to the higher proportion of second-crop soybeans. According to field surveys and traders, second-crop soybeans account for 45 percent of total soybean acreage this year, higher than the 38 percent estimated by the Government of Argentina.
Field travel during early February in central and southern Santa Fe, eastern Cordoba, and northern Buenos Aires Provinces indicated mixed results. In southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires, field conditions are better than average in the fields observed. Yield potential is very high for corn, sorghum, sunflowerseed, and single-crop soybeans. In central Santa Fe, prolonged dryness has damaged soybeans, both second crop and single crop; however, this region is a marginal soybean area with less than 9 percent of total area. Second-crop soybeans were at flowering and will be affected more seriously.
Corn production for 1996/97 is forecast at a record 14.5 million tons, up 3.4 million or 31 percent from 1995/96. Planted area increased 11 percent due to strong international prices at planting (October 1996). Potential yields were above-average in nearly all fields the team surveyed in early February. Corn fields in the areas of Pergamino and Junin, in northern Buenos Aires Province, were in exceptionally good shape. Fertilizer use this year increased dramatically, from less than 30 percent of corn area receiving applications in 1995/96 to over 50 percent. In the prime corn-growing areas, 90 percent of the corn area was fertilized this year, according to field contacts. The dryness in central Santa Fe is expected to minimally impact yield potential for corn because the crucial pollination and most of grainfill stages have past. "Mal de Rio Cuarto" disease is prevalent in northwestern Buenos Aires and southern Cordoba Provinces. The disease is caused by a virus which stunts corn plants and is transmitted by insects. Dryness at planting created favorable conditions for insects. Loss of potential yield is serious for localized fields, but is expected to be between 2 to 5 percent nationally.
Sunflowerseed production for 1996/97 is forecast at 5.4 million tons, down 0.2 million or 4 percent from 1995/96. Planted area decreased 10 percent as sunflower area shifted to corn and single-crop soybeans. Yields are estimated at 1.86 tons per hectare, higher than the 5-year average of 1.70 tons per hectare. Pollination in favorable weather during late December and January and ample soil moisture account for the higher yields. Sunflowers are grown principally in northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba, and northern La Pampa Provinces. Soils in these areas are lighter and deeper, allowing an extended root zone. For areas in southern Buenos Aires, near Tandil, sunflower area is decreasing because the soils are heavier and prone to water-logging; sclerotinia problems are persistent.
Sorghum production for 1996/97 is forecast at 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million or 21 percent from last year. Sorghum area increased marginally, less than 3 percent. Yields are forecast at 3.85 tons per hectare, higher than last year and higher than the 5-year average of 3.65 tons per hectare. More sorghum is grown on prime soils in southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Sorghum is used in rotation with soybeans to improve the water-holding capacity of the soils. Soybean yields can be boosted by 10 percent when following sorghum in rotation, according to field contacts.
Robert Tetrault, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0140
E-mail: tetrault@fas.usda.gov
The estimate for 1996/97 world centrifugal sugar production has been revised to 124.0 million tons (raw value). This is 1 percent below the preliminary forecast released in November 1996 (WAP 11-96), but 1 percent higher than the previous record of 122.5 million tons set in 1995/96. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast at 86.9 million tons, up marginally from 1995/96. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is estimated at 37.1 million tons, up 4 percent from last season.
The 1996/97 estimate for India, the world's largest sugar producer, is 15.6 million tons, down 8 percent from the November forecast and down 15 percent from last season's record outturn of 18.3 million. Other major-producing countries with downward revisions in production since November include: Thailand and Pakistan, each down 200,000 tons to 6.3 and 2.6 million, respectively; Russia, down 150,000 tons to 1.75 million; and Ukraine and South Africa, each down 100,000 tons to 2.9 and 2.6 million, respectively.
Partially offsetting the sharp decline in India, the European Union's (EU-15) sugar forecast for 1996/97 has been raised 3 percent since November and 4 percent from last season. Sugar output in Brazil has been increased to an all-time high of 14.65 million tons, up 1 percent from November and 7 percent above the previous record last season. Sugar production in the Central-South and North-Northeast regions of Brazil is forecast at 11.2 and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Other major-producing countries with upward revisions in production since the November forecast include: Poland, up 246,000 tons to 2.4 million; United States, up 95,000 tons to 6.6 million; and Mexico up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million.
World macadamia nut production has continued to rise in the late-1990's, as yields from maturing trees increase. Output in seven of the world's leading producing countries is forecast at 64,130 tons (wet-in-shell basis), up 12 percent from 1995/96. Production is forecast to increase in all seven countries with the two largest producing countries, the United States and Australia, forecasting increases of 8 and 18 percent, respectively.
Non-bearing trees account for 42 percent of total macadamia orchard area in six foreign countries, compared to just 5 percent of U.S. macadamia plantations. Most of the new trees are in Australia and Brazil, but South Africa, Guatemala, and Costa Rica also have significant new plantings.
In this article, area and production data are reported on a split-year (July through June) basis for both Northern and Southern Hemisphere producers. The Northern Hemisphere harvest begins in July. In the Southern Hemisphere, macadamia nuts primarily are harvested beginning in February of the second half of the split year. The conversion from wet-in-shell macadamia nuts to shelled nuts is approximately 23 to 25 percent.
Australia: Macadamia nut production is forecast up 18 percent in 1996/97 (harvested March through May 1997), to 23,000 tons, making it the second-largest producing country behind the United States. The 1995/96 crop estimate (WAP 03-96) has been reduced because of heavy rains. Estimates for area planted and harvested for the three most recent years (1994/95 to 1996/97) have been revised upward significantly from last year's report based on new information from the Australian Macadamia Society. The forecasts for 1996/97 for planted and harvested area are 20,200 hectares and 11,500 hectares, respectively, more than double the previous estimates.
Yield per mature tree is 20 to 30 kilograms (wet-in-shell basis), which is similar to the yield obtained in Hawaii. However, average yields in Australia are around 10 to 15 kilograms per tree because many trees are still maturing and the trees do not thrive particularly well in Australia's harsher climate. To remedy this problem, Australian hybrids are being introduced on a trial basis. These trials are designed to select genetic material better suited to Australian conditions. Already, some macadamia nut producers are grafting new varieties onto old rootstock, shortening the time required for trees to begin bearing from 12 years to 6.
Brazil: Macadamia nut production for 1996/97 is forecast at 1,100 tons (harvested February through March 1997), up 5 percent from 1995/96 because of improved weather in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais producing areas. The area planted to macadamia nuts for the 1996/97 season is estimated at 6,500 hectares, with approximately 40 percent already in production. Area is expected to increase only marginally over the next 3 years because of minimal government support and limited interest in this type of nut by the Brazilian snack and bakery industries. The state of Espirito Santo, with 2,200 hectares, has the largest amount of area planted to macadamia nuts. Other major producing states are Sao Paulo, with 2,000 hectares; Minas Gerais, with 1,000; Bahia, with 900; and, Rio de Janeiro, with 200.
Costa Rica: For 1996/97, macadamia nut production is forecast to increase 9 percent, to 2,500 tons, because of better crop management. Macadamia nut output in 1995/96 has been revised from the previous estimate of 3,100 tons (WAP 3-96) to 2,300 because heavy rainfall and high humidity during flowering increased the spread of fungi.
During 1995/96, the macadamia nut industry implemented a new pricing system which penalizes producers for delivering poor-quality nuts and pays a premium for high-quality nuts. This new system resulted in better quality nuts arriving at the plants, which increased processing yields and lowered processing costs. The average producer price during 1995/96 was about US$1.10 per kilogram of dry-in-shell nuts. Macadamia nuts are harvested year-round in Costa Rica. However there are two distinct harvest periods. The heaviest off-take occurs between October and December and May through June.
Guatemala: Macadamia nut production in 1996/97 is forecast at 2,400 tons, up 6 percent from last year. The increase is due to additional trees coming into production and higher average yields as trees mature. Nearly 67 percent of Guatemala's macadamia trees are young, non-bearing trees which will mature over the next few years.
Wet-in-shell prices paid to Guatemalan producers vary according to the kernel's humidity level and quality. In 1996, producers received between US$0.99 and US$1.10 per kilogram on a wet-in-shell basis, up from US$0.77 to US$0.88 per kilogram in 1995/96. Macadamia nuts are harvested year-round with peak production from May through August.
Kenya: The forecast for the 1996/97 macadamia nut crop is 5,400 tons, up 10 percent from last season due to additional trees coming into production. However, the projected increase is smaller than the crop's actual production potential because of insufficient rainfall during the growing season.
The bearing area increased 2 percent in 1996/97, to 5,450 hectares; another 650 hectares are planted with immature trees. A shortage of seedlings is the single most constraining factor for macadamia nut farming in Kenya. To meet the demand for seedlings, nurseries are being established throughout the country, even in non-traditional growing areas like western Kenya.
Prices paid to growers have increased significantly--from approximately US$0.21 per kilogram wet-in-shell basis in 1993/94, to US$0.42 to US$0.45 in 1996/97. The rise in prices has resulted in improved orchard management and greater fertilizer use. Normally, macadamia trees indirectly benefit from the fertilizer applied to the coffee trees with which they are intercropped, but are not the primary recipients of the fertilizer. Harvesting of macadamia nuts occurs year-round in Kenya, with the bulk taken off from March through June.
South Africa: Macadamia nut output in 1996/97 (harvested March through May 1997) is forecast up 22 percent, to 4,780 tons, as more trees reach full maturity. With nearly half the trees not yet bearing, production increases in South Africa are projected for the next decade.
As the macadamia nut industry recovered from the 1995/96 drought, there was renewed interest in expanding production and processing facilities. Export prices in 1996 rose because of favorable exchange rates, further heightening interest in the industry.
Since minimum quality standards were implemented in 1994, the Macadamia Nut Growers' Association has been working on the development of a quality seal to be applied to all macadamia products which conform to the standards. Progress has been slow as all producers will have to be incorporated, but implementation is expected soon.
United States: Macadamia nut production for the 1996/97 crop year (July-June) is estimated at a record 24,950 tons, 8 percent above 1995/96. Improved weather, coupled with continuing maturity of younger trees, helped boost yields, despite a slight decline in harvested area due to the abandonment of some marginal orchards. Harvested area is estimated at 7,770 hectares, down from 7,811 hectares in 1995/96. The preliminary grower price for wet-in-shell macadamia nuts in 1996/97 averaged US$1.68 per kilogram (net weight), up 3 percent from 1995/96.
Kelly Kirby Strzelecki, Horticulture Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-6791
E-mail: strzelecki@fas.usda.gov
MACADAMIA NUT PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(Hectares/Metric tons, wet-in-shell basis)
Area Planted Area Harvested Production
Australia
1994/95 19,600 10,200 18,000
1995/96 20,000 11,000 19,500
1996/97 1/ 20,100 11,500 23,000
Brazil
1994/95 6,000 2,000 950
1995/96 6,300 2,480 1,050
1996/97 1/ 6,500 2,600 1,100
Costa Rica
1994/95 6,600 3,500 2,300
1995/96 6,000 4,000 2,300
1996/97 1/ 6,000 4,000 2,500
Guatemala
1994/95 3,080 950 2,130
1995/96 3,200 1,000 2,272
1996/97 1/ 3,300 1,100 2,400
Kenya
1994/95 5,750 5,100 4,100
1995/96 6,050 5,360 4,900
1996/97 1/ 6,100 5,450 5,400
South Africa 2/
1994/95 4,300 2,150 2,455
1995/96 4,500 2,250 3,920
1996/97 1/ 4,600 2,325 4,780
United States
1994/95 8,175 7,487 23,810
1995/96 8,215 7,811 23,130
1996/97 1/ 8,175 7,770 24,950
Total
1994/95 53,505 31,387 53,745
1995/96 54,265 33,901 57,072
1996/97 1/ 54,775 34,745 64,130
1/ Preliminary
2/ Production estimates converted from dry-inshell assuming 12 percent
average moisture.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
Red meat production for 1997 in selected countries has been revised to 133.81 million tons, up 4 percent from the October forecast of 128.53 million mainly due to larger-than-expected output in China and the European Union. The production estimate for 1996 has been raised 1 percent, to 132.61 million tons, mainly because of larger output of red meat in Brazil and China.
Cattle Inventories and Beef Production
Cattle numbers were reported at 1.05 billion head at the start of 1997, down 4.22 million from 1996 due to herd reductions in the United States, the European Union, the former Soviet Union, and Argentina. Beef and veal production for 1997 is forecast at 47.73 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 as production continues to expand in Brazil and China due to strong domestic demand.
Hog Inventories and Pork Production
Hog inventories for the selected countries totaled 777.28 million head at the start of 1997, 8.21 million head below the starting 1996 inventory primarily because of high feed prices in China, Poland, Russia, and the United States. The European Union has recorded the largest growth in inventories due to increased demand for pork because of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) problem. Pork production is estimated at 79.10 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 due to expansion in the European Union and China.
Sheep Inventories and Sheep/Goat Meat Production
Sheep numbers at the start of 1997 in the selected countries were reported at 904.83 million head, up 4 percent from the October forecast and up 1 percent from last year. Growth was greatest in South Africa and Australia where slaughter is down due to herd-rebuilding, and in China where demand remains strong. Sheep and goat meat production for 1997 is forecast at 6.98 million tons, up 3 percent from last year primarily because of significantly larger production in China.
RED MEAT PRODUCTION, SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/
(1,000 Metric tons-carcass weight equivalent)
1994 1995 2/ 1996 3/ 1997 4/ 1997 5/
Canada 2,137 2,209 2,255 2,395 2,376
Mexico 2,852 2,934 2,811 2,807 2,808
United States 19,361 19,820 19,652 20,126 19,593
NORTH AMERICA 24,350 24,963 24,718 25,328 24,777
Costa Rica 94 93 93 92 92
Dominican Republic 46 48 49 50 50
El Salvador 27 27 26 26 26
Guatemala 48 50 53 54 54
Honduras 45 29 28 29 29
Nicaragua 54 50 49 49 49
CENTRAL AMERICA &
CARIBBEAN 314 297 298 300 300
Argentina 2,682 2,668 2,606 2,555 2,555
Brazil 5,850 6,200 6,520 6,730 6,830
Colombia 566 604 617 637 637
Uruguay 368 344 370 390 390
Venezuela 370 347 354 354 354
SOUTH AMERICA 9,836 10,163 10,467 10,666 10,766
Austria 683 653 654 660 660
Belgium-Luxembourg 1,367 1,422 1,374 1,403 1,415
Denmark 1,755 1,702 1,711 1,744 1,762
France 3,868 3,941 4,018 4,002 4,015
Germany 5,092 5,053 5,090 4,423 5,123
Greece 357 362 366 369 369
Ireland 753 775 826 812 875
Italy 2,618 2,602 2,533 2,540 2,550
Netherlands 2,276 2,203 2,199 2,050 2,195
Portugal 498 437 429 429 429
Spain 2,825 2,925 2,895 2,932 2,932
Sweden 448 454 457 443 443
United Kingdom 2,323 2,359 2,053 2,131 2,066
EUROPEAN UNION 24,863 24,888 24,605 23,938 24,834
Switzerland 388 398 363 353 353
WESTERN EUROPE 388 398 363 353 353
Bulgaria 423 411 402 356 356
Czech Republic 1000 973 978 1025 1025
Hungary 494 400 690 725 725
Poland 1,771 1,988 1,994 1,819 1,827
Romania 804 642 667 682 682
EASTERN EUROPE 4,492 4,414 4,731 4,607 4,615
Kazakhstan 894 754 643 460 576
Russia 5,659 4,860 4,439 4,260 4,091
Ukraine 2,387 2,033 1,882 1,745 1,785
FORMER SOVIET UNION 8,940 7,647 6,964 6,465 6,452
Saudi Arabia 227 215 212 213 213
Turkey 946 995 975 972 972
MIDDLE EAST 1,173 1,210 1,187 1,185 1,185
Egypt 475 483 513 534 534
South Africa 715 688 704 733 733
AFRICA 1,190 1,171 1,217 1,267 1,267
China 36,968 42,653 47,000 43,100 48,100
Hong Kong 199 187 184 208 180
India 1,665 1,852 1,920 1,982 1,982
Japan 1,992 1,923 1,821 1,800 1,770
Korea, Republic of 986 1,013 1,096 1,126 1,126
Philippines 850 893 946 982 982
Singapore 87 85 83 80 80
Taiwan 1,209 1,239 1,276 1,281 1,281
ASIA 43,956 49,845 54,326 50,559 55,501
Australia 2,807 2,644 2,597 2,813 2,681
New Zealand 1,079 1,152 1,135 1,050 1,080
OCEANIA 3,886 3,796 3,732 3,863 3,761
TOTAL 123,388 128,792 132,608 128,531 133,811
1/ Includes beef, veal, pork, sheep, and goat meat. 2/ Revised. 3/
Estimate. 4/ Forecast October 1996. 5/ Forecast March 1997.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
BEEF AND VEAL PRODUCTION, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons-carcass weight equivalent)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 903 928 1,015 1,120 1,130
Mexico 1,810 1,850 1,800 1,800 1,800
United States 11,194 11,585 11,750 12,032 11,703
NORTH AMERICA 13,907 14,363 14,565 14,952 14,633
Costa Rica 94 93 93 92 92
Dominican Republic 46 48 49 50 50
El Salvador 27 27 26 26 26
Guatemala 48 50 53 54 54
Honduras 45 29 28 29 29
Nicaragua 54 50 49 49 49
CENTRAL AMERICA &
CARRIBEAN 314 297 298 300 300
Argentina 2,600 2,600 2,550 2,500 2,500
Brazil 4,550 4,750 4,960 5,150 5,150
Colombia 566 604 617 637 637
Uruguay 368 344 370 390 390
Venezuela 370 347 354 354 354
SOUTH AMERICA 8,454 8,645 8,851 9,031 9,031
Austria 212 196 190 192 192
Belgium-Luxembourg 356 365 344 335 345
Denmark 190 185 183 184 181
France 1,588 1,648 1,673 1,650 1,600
Germany 1,447 1,407 1,445 1,380 1,440
Greece 83 85 86 88 88
Ireland 445 480 530 512 575
Italy 1,170 1,181 1,100 1,100 1,110
Netherlands 603 580 580 490 575
Portugal 122 105 94 101 101
Spain 478 508 485 500 500
Sweden 141 144 142 139 139
United Kingdom 918 976 712 750 713
EUROPEAN UNION 7,753 7,860 7,564 7,421 7,559
Switzerland 142 147 139 138 138
WESTERN EUROPE 142 147 139 138 138
Bulgaria 95 87 94 69 69
Czech Republic 345 323 318 315 315
Poland 405 400 388 415 373
Romania 170 150 175 180 180
EASTERN EUROPE 1,015 960 975 979 937
Kazakhstan 642 548 482 385 439
Russia 3,240 2,734 2,543 2,400 2,390
Ukraine 1,427 1,186 1,079 940 993
FORMER SOVIET UNION 5,309 4,468 4,104 3,725 3,822
Saudi Arabia 30 26 20 20 20
Turkey 574 623 609 609 609
MIDDLE EAST 604 649 629 629 629
Egypt 392 402 430 450 450
South Africa 581 542 548 580 580
AFRICA 973 944 978 1,030 1,030
China 3,270 4,154 4,700 4,700 5,000
India 1,050 1,230 1,290 1,345 1,345
Japan 602 601 557 570 545
Korea, Republic of 200 214 231 256 256
Philippines 135 139 148 157 157
Taiwan 5 6 6 6 6
ASIA 5,262 6,344 6,932 7,034 7,309
Australia 1,829 1,717 1,680 1,862 1,730
New Zealand 566 630 631 587 610
OCEANIA 2,395 2,347 2,311 2,449 2,340
TOTAL 46,128 47,024 47,346 47,688 47,728
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March 1997
March 1997 Production Estiamtes and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
CATTLE AND BUFFALO INVENTORIES, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Head-January 1)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 12,254 12,849 13,186 13,144 12,767
Mexico 30,702 30,191 28,141 27,286 26,900
United States 100,988 102,755 103,487 102,083 101,209
NORTH AMERICA 143,944 145,795 144,814 142,513 140,876
Costa Rica 1,693 1,645 1,585 1,525 1,525
Dominican Republic 1,983 1,984 1,985 1,986 1,986
El Salvador 1,312 1,319 1,299 1,287 1,287
Guatemala 1,762 1,717 1,697 1,667 1,667
Honduras 2,286 2,205 2,182 2,152 2,152
Nicaragua 1,630 1,600 1,650 1,665 1,665
CENTRAL AMER &
CARIBBEAN 10,666 10,470 10,398 10,282 10,282
Argentina 54,875 54,207 53,569 51,691 51,821
Brazil 144,900 148,278 151,544 153,200 153,200
Colombia 16,614 16,725 16,768 16,852 16,852
Uruguay 10,477 10,512 10,436 10,600 10,600
Venezuela 14,000 14,000 14,216 14,402 14,402
SOUTH AMERICA 240,866 243,722 246,533 246,745 246,875
Austria 2,334 2,328 2,325 2,327 2,327
Belgium-Luxembourg 3,289 3,365 3,159 3,445 2,709
Denmark 2,115 2,082 2,094 2,075 2,075
France 20,112 20,524 20,662 20,800 20,700
Germany 15,897 15,962 15,890 15,700 15,700
Greece 619 624 640 655 655
Ireland 6,308 6,410 6,532 6,663 6,757
Italy 7,560 7,300 7,100 7,000 6,900
Netherlands 4,629 4,588 4,557 4,500 4,500
Portugal 1,322 1,329 1,316 1,290 1,290
Spain 5,017 5,252 5,512 5,660 5,660
Sweden 1,826 1,777 1,781 1,770 1,770
United Kingdom 11,709 11,868 11,619 11,350 11,260
EUROPEAN UNION 82,737 83,409 83,187 83,235 82,303
Switzerland 1,745 1,762 1,770 1,780 1,780
WESTERN EUROPE 1,745 1,762 1,770 1,780 1,780
Bulgaria 750 638 632 550 550
Czech Republic 2,167 2,031 1,989 1,970 1,970
Poland 7,270 7,120 7,193 7,250 6,983
Romania 3,597 3,565 3,660 3,700 3,700
EASTERN EUROPE 13,784 13,354 13,474 13,470 13,203
Kazakhstan 9,347 8,073 6,868 5,015 5,838
Russia 48,914 43,296 39,694 36,500 36,000
Ukraine 21,607 19,624 17,557 15,800 15,626
FORMER SOVIET UNION 79,868 70,993 64,119 57,315 57,464
Turkey 11,800 11,700 11,700 11,700 11,700
MIDDLE EAST 11,800 11,700 11,700 11,700 11,700
Egypt 5,700 5,873 6,101 6,300 6,300
South Africa 12,506 12,632 13,334 13,850 13,850
AFRICA 18,206 18,505 19,435 20,150 20,150
China 113,157 123,317 132,058 128,161 137,000
India 272,655 274,155 276,105 277,045 277,045
Japan 4,990 4,916 4,828 4,800 4,795
Korea, Republic of 2,814 2,945 3,147 3,463 3,423
Philippines 4,495 4,570 4,650 4,736 4,736
Taiwan 166 164 165 165 165
ASIA 398,277 410,067 420,953 418,370 427,164
Australia 25,758 25,736 26,500 26,600 26,750
New Zealand 8,308 8,712 8,811 9,022 8,930
OCEANIA 34,066 34,448 35,311 35,622 35,680
TOTAL 1,035,959 1,044,225 1,051,694 1,041,182 1,047,477
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March 1997.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
SHEEP INVENTORIES, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Head-January 1)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
United States 9,714 8,886 8,461 8,303 7,937
NORTH AMERICA 9,714 8,886 8,461 8,303 7,937
Argentina 23,500 21,626 17,956 17,306 17,306
SOUTH AMERICA 23,500 21,626 17,956 17,306 17,306
France 5/ 11,505 11,385 11,140 11,390 11,190
Germany 2,369 2,340 2,437 2,440 2,440
Greece 9,604 9,559 9,386 9,201 9,201
Ireland 5,991 5,772 5,583 5,353 5,353
Italy 5/ 11,835 12,070 12,000 12,000 12,000
Portugal 5/ 4,141 4,235 4,239 4,230 4,230
Spain 23,872 23,058 21,322 22,100 21,400
United Kingdom 29,333 29,484 28,797 28,720 28,750
EUROPEAN UNION 98,650 97,903 94,904 95,434 94,564
Bulgaria 4,439 4,193 4,216 4,070 4,070
Poland 972 766 608 600 500
Romania 12,276 12,119 11,529 11,500 11,500
EASTERN EUROPE 17,687 17,078 16,353 16,170 16,070
Kazakhstan 5/ 34,208 25,132 19,600 14,200 14,896
Russia 5/ 43,700 34,500 28,336 23,800 23,519
Ukraine 5/ 6,863 5,575 4,080 2,870 2,925
FORMER SOVIET UNIO 84,771 65,207 52,016 40,870 41,340
Saudia Arabia 7,257 7,321 7,461 7,578 7,578
Turkey 44,000 43,000 42,400 41,800 41,800
MIDDLE EAST 51,257 50,321 49,861 49,378 49,378
Egypt 3,767 3,648 3,491 3,546 3,546
South Africa 5/ 33,800 33,385 35,145 37,310 37,310
AFRICA 37,567 37,033 38,636 40,856 40,856
China 5/ 217,314 240,528 276,857 264,326 296,000
India 5/ 163,156 164,242 165,384 166,010 166,010
ASIA 380,470 404,770 442,241 430,336 462,010
Australia 132,569 123,210 126,320 128,100 128,100
New Zealand 50,298 50,135 48,816 47,050 47,264
OCEANIA 182,867 173,345 175,136 175,150 175,364
TOTAL 886,483 876,169 895,564 873,803 904,825
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March
1997. 5/ Includes goats.
LAMB, MUTTON, GOAT MEAT PRODUCTION, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons-carcass weight equivalent)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Mexico 142 138 137 139 139
United States 140 130 121 117 113
NORTH AMERICA 282 268 258 256 252
Argentina 82 68 56 55 55
SOUTH AMERICA 82 68 56 55 55
France 154 148 152 152 155
Germany 41 42 43 43 43
Greece 130 130 131 130 130
Ireland 93 89 91 87 87
Italy 79 76 78 80 80
Portugal 32 27 27 27 27
Spain 240 242 230 232 232
United Kingdom 352 366 346 346 343
EUROPEAN UNION 1,121 1,120 1,098 1,097 1,097
Bulgaria 61 59 57 49 49
Poland 8 8 6 4 4
Romania 69 71 60 62 62
EASTERN EUROPE 138 138 123 115 115
Kazakhstan 252 206 161 75 137
Russia 316 261 217 220 190
Ukraine 44 40 36 35 33
FORMER SOVIET UNION 612 507 414 330 360
Saudi Arabia 197 189 192 193 193
Turkey 372 372 366 363 363
MIDDLE EAST 569 561 558 556 556
Egypt 83 81 83 84 84
South Africa 134 146 156 153 153
AFRICA 217 227 239 237 237
China 1,650 2,015 2,300 2,400 2,600
India 615 622 630 637 637
ASIA 2,265 2,637 2,930 3,037 3,237
Australia 634 576 580 603 603
New Zealand 513 522 504 463 470
OCEANIA 1,147 1,098 1,084 1,066 1,073
TOTAL 6,433 6,624 6,760 6,749 6,982
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March
1997.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
PORK PRODUCTION, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons-carcass weight equivalent)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 1,234 1,281 1,240 1,275 1,246
Mexico 900 954 890 890 895
United States 8,027 8,097 7,765 7,955 7,751
NORTH AMERICA 10,161 10,332 9,895 10,120 9,892
Brazil 1,300 1,450 1,560 1,580 1,680
CENTRAL & SO AMERICA 1,300 1,450 1,560 1,580 1,680
Austria 471 457 464 468 468
Belgium-Luxembourg 1,011 1,057 1,030 1,068 1,070
Denmark 1,565 1,517 1,528 1,560 1,581
France 2,126 2,145 2,193 2,200 2,260
Germany 3,604 3,604 3,602 3,000 3,640
Greece 144 147 149 151 151
Ireland 215 206 205 213 213
Italy 1,369 1,345 1,355 1,360 1,360
Netherlands 1,673 1,623 1,619 1,560 1,620
Portugal 344 305 308 301 301
Spain 2,107 2,175 2,180 2,200 2,200
Sweden 307 310 315 304 304
United Kingdom 1,053 1,017 995 1,035 1,010
EUROPEAN UNION 15,989 15,908 15,943 15,420 16,178
Switzerland 246 251 224 215 215
WESTERN EUROPE 246 251 224 215 215
Bulgaria 267 265 251 238 238
Czech Republic 655 650 660 710 710
Hungary 494 400 690 725 725
Poland 1,358 1,580 1,600 1,400 1,450
Romania 565 421 432 440 440
EASTERN EUROPE 3,339 3,316 3,633 3,513 3,563
Russia 2,103 1,865 1,679 1,640 1,511
Ukraine 916 807 767 770 759
FORMER SOVIET UNION 3,019 2,672 2,446 2,410 2,270
China 32,048 36,484 40,000 36,000 40,500
Hong Kong 199 187 184 208 180
Japan 1,390 1,322 1,264 1,230 1,225
Korea, Republic of 786 799 865 870 870
Philippines 715 754 798 825 825
Singapore 87 85 83 80 80
Taiwan 1,204 1,233 1,270 1,275 1,275
ASIA 36,429 40,864 44,464 40,488 44,955
Australia 344 351 337 348 348
OCEANIA 344 351 337 348 348
TOTAL 70,827 75,144 78,502 74,094 79,101
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March 1997
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
HOG INVENTORIES, SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Head-January 1)
1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 10,851 11,673 12,097 11,800 12,010
Mexico 12,083 12,513 11,118 10,218 10,218
United States 57,904 59,990 58,264 57,350 56,171
NORTH AMERICA 80,838 84,176 81,479 79,368 78,399
Brazil 31,200 31,338 32,497 32,739 32,739
SOUTH AMERICA 31,200 31,338 32,497 32,739 32,739
Austria 3,820 3,729 3,706 3,780 3,780
Belgium-Luxembourg 6,948 7,060 7,153 7,145 7,345
Denmark 10,870 10,864 10,709 10,923 11,079
France 14,791 14,593 14,524 14,640 14,800
Germany 26,075 24,698 23,736 22,800 24,500
Greece 1,144 1,094 1,070 1,028 1,028
Ireland 1,487 1,498 1,542 1,631 1,631
Italy 8,348 8,000 7,964 7,900 7,900
Netherlands 13,991 13,931 13,958 14,000 14,000
Portugal 2,665 2,416 2,400 2,435 2,435
Spain 18,234 18,295 18,600 18,000 18,700
Sweden 2,328 2,313 2,330 2,200 2,200
United Kingdom 7,869 7,879 7,351 7,650 7,600
EUROPEAN UNION 118,570 116,370 115,043 114,132 116,998
Switzerland 1,692 1,646 1,425 1,296 1,296
WESTERN EUROPE 1,692 1,646 1,425 1,296 1,296
Bulgaria 2,071 1,986 2,140 2,081 2,081
Czech Republic 4,035 3,862 3,805 4,026 4,026
Hungary 5,001 4,356 5,032 5,300 5,300
Poland 17,422 19,138 20,343 18,000 17,680
Romania 9,262 7,727 7,797 7,850 7,850
EASTERN EUROPE 37,791 37,069 39,117 37,257 36,937
Russia 28,600 24,859 22,600 20,500 19,888
Ukraine 15,298 13,946 13,144 12,750 12,566
FORMER SOVIET UNION 43,898 38,805 35,744 33,250 32,454
China 393,000 414,619 441,692 408,516 440,000
Japan 10,622 10,250 9,900 9,700 9,700
Korea, Republic of 5,928 5,955 6,461 6,950 6,384
Philippines 8,227 8,941 9,023 9,078 9,078
Taiwan 9,845 10,066 10,510 10,700 10,698
ASIA 427,622 449,831 477,586 444,944 475,860
Australia 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600
OCEANIA 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600
TOTAL 744,211 761,835 785,491 745,586 777,283
1/ Revised. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast October 1996. 4/ Forecast March
1997.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
Total poultry meat production for 1997 in the selected countries is estimated at 52.89 million tons, up 6 percent from 1996 due to rising demand and a shift in consumer preference away from red meat. Broiler meat production is expected to reach 36.28 million tons in 1997, up 6 percent from 1996 mainly due to rising output in Brazil, China, and the United States and potentially lower grain prices. Turkey meat production has been trending upward for the past 4 years. Output in the selected countries for 1997 is estimated at 4.60 million tons, with the most significant increases anticipated in Brazil, the European Union, Poland, and the United States.
TOTAL POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1993 1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 741 829 861 891 862 917
Mexico 1,422 1,483 1,554 1,590 1,210 1,680
United States 12,396 13,206 13,786 14,516 15,252 15,285
NORTH AMERICA 14,559 15,518 16,201 16,997 17,324 17,882
Guatemala 85 95 104 110 116 116
Honduras 39 40 41 41 41 41
CENTRAL AMERICA 124 135 145 151 157 157
Argentina 630 675 700 660 680 680
Brazil 3,211 3,491 4,140 4,160 4,510 4,330
Colombia 497 514 537 591 633 633
Venezuela 350 365 410 406 402 402
SOUTH AMERICA 4,688 5,045 5,787 5,817 6,225 6,045
Belgium-Luxembourg 196 219 251 264 259 259
Denmark 162 172 168 170 175 175
France 1,875 1,961 2,083 2,165 2,255 2,230
Germany 615 641 655 657 662 662
Greece 173 175 178 179 181 181
Ireland 88 97 101 105 106 106
Italy 1,061 1,084 1,123 1,168 1,158 1,158
Netherlands 565 594 641 690 669 710
Portugal 238 248 235 247 247 247
Spain 840 880 910 920 920 920
United Kingdom 1,244 1,289 1,330 1,372 1,408 1,408
EUROPEAN UNION 7,057 7,360 7,675 7,937 8,040 8,056
Hungary 307 320 368 365 370 370
Poland 300 345 367 380 390 390
Romania 160 135 160 180 200 200
EASTERN EUROPE 767 800 895 925 960 960
Russia 1,277 1,068 859 765 780 719
Ukraine 362 265 235 212 212 195
FORMER SOVIET UNION 1,639 1,333 1,094 977 992 914
Israel 224 242 249 251 256 256
Kuwait 18 18 20 22 24 24
Saudi Arabia 285 286 309 340 438 438
Turkey 350 330 390 435 475 475
United Arab Emirates 16 18 20 21 22 22
MIDDLE EAST 893 894 988 1,069 1,215 1,215
Egypt 295 345 360 380 390 390
South Africa 641 667 736 789 830 830
AFRICA 936 1,012 1,096 1,169 1,220 1,220
China 5,736 7,550 9,347 11,000 12,500 12,500
Hong Kong 20 16 94 88 18 90
Japan 1,368 1,258 1,282 1,241 1,250 1,240
Korea, Republic of 369 378 415 425 435 435
Singapore 62 57 60 61 62 62
Taiwan 585 604 630 655 655 655
Thailand 685 740 825 890 915 945
ASIA 8,825 10,603 12,653 14,360 15,835 15,927
Australia 467 498 500 503 510 510
OCEANIA 467 498 500 503 510 510
TOTAL 5/ 39,955 43,198 47,034 49,905 52,478 52,886
1/ Preliminary. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast August 1996. 4/ Forecast
August 1996. 5/ Total includes 41 countries.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
TURKEY MEAT PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1993 1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 128 133 141 144 142 142
Mexico 9 9 10 11 10 12
United States 2,176 2,239 2,299 2,450 2,465 2,521
NORTH AMERICA 2,313 2,381 2,450 2,605 2,617 2,675
Brazil 63 80 90 100 110 110
SOUTH AMERICA 63 80 90 100 110 110
Belgium-Luxembourg 4 4 7 7 7 7
Denmark 9 9 10 10 11 11
France 532 568 650 665 705 680
Germany 169 183 206 215 220 220
Greece 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ireland 26 30 32 33 34 34
Italy 266 269 294 310 310 310
Netherlands 30 32 28 27 28 27
Portugal 31 31 42 42 42 42
Spain 19 13 17 17 18 18
United Kingdom 252 253 272 280 290 290
EUROPEAN UNION 1,341 1,395 1,561 1,609 1,668 1,642
Hungary 25 24 25 27 28 28
Poland 33 34 42 49 55 55
EASTERN EUROPE 58 58 67 76 83 83
Russia 35 30 25 22 20 20
FORMER SOVIET UNION 35 30 25 22 20 20
Israel 77 86 85 79 76 76
Middle East 77 86 85 79 76 76
TOTAL 5/ 3,887 4,030 4,278 4,491 4,574 4,606
1/ Preliminary. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast August 1996. 4/ Forecast March
1997. 5/ Total includes 20 countries.
March 1997
Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
In 1997, egg production in the selected countries--consisting mainly of chicken eggs--is estimated at 733.84 billion eggs, up 5 percent from 1996. Most of the growth in this industry in recent years has been in China where strong economic growth, low grain prices, and rising demand for low-priced protein products is expected to boost egg production in 1997 to a record 385.00 billion eggs, more than half of the world's total egg production.
EGG PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(Million eggs)
1993 1994 1995 1/ 1996 2/ 1997 3/ 1997 4/
Canada 5,689 5,736 5,792 5,835 5,815 5,900
Mexico 21,471 25,896 25,760 26,000 21,000 26,500
United States 72,072 74,136 74,592 76,296 78,600 79,080
NORTH AMERICA 99,232 105,768 106,144 108,131 105,415 111,480
Brazil 12,700 13,460 16,065 16,870 18,220 18,220
Colombia 6,433 6,357 6,912 7,365 7,760 7,760
SOUTH AMERICA 19,133 19,817 22,977 24,235 25,980 25,980
Belgium-Luxembourg 3,324 3,600 3,858 3,700 3,600 3,600
Denmark 1,405 1,382 1,474 1,500 1,600 1,600
France 15,355 16,370 16,911 16,650 16,650 16,960
Germany 13,678 13,960 13,847 13,700 13,700 13,700
Greece 2,540 2,500 2,600 2,650 2,640 2,640
Ireland 655 605 610 612 614 614
Italy 11,502 11,599 12,017 11,800 11,900 11,900
Netherlands 10,019 10,306 9,970 9,880 10,100 9,800
Portugal 1,787 1,831 1,869 1,872 1,872 1,872
Spain 8,454 9,670 9,983 9,984 9,984 9,984
United Kingdom 10,645 10,620 10,644 10,580 10,565 10,565
EUROPEAN UNION 79,364 82,443 83,783 82,928 83,535 83,235
Poland 5,450 6,100 6,500 6,700 6,800 6,800
Romania 5,450 3,300 3,650 4,600 5,100 5,100
EASTERN EUROPE 10,900 9,400 10,150 11,300 11,900 11,900
Russia 40,300 37,400 33,720 32,000 31,500 31,500
Ukraine 11,766 10,145 9,500 9,000 9,000 9,000
FORMER SOVIET UNION
52,066 47,545 43,220 41,000 40,500 40,500
Turkey 8,100 7,900 8,000 8,100 8,150 8,150
MIDDLE EAST 8,100 7,900 8,000 8,100 8,150 8,150
China 235,960 295,800 335,340 360,000 385,000 385,000
Hong Kong 23 18 21 22 24 23
Japan 43,252 43,047 42,167 42,760 42,500 43,200
Korea, Republic of 8,196 8,094 8,317 8,565 8,770 8,770
Taiwan 5,372 5,673 6,237 6,400 6,700 6,700
Thailand 7,336 7,530 7,700 8,100 8,600 8,900
ASIA 300,139 360,162 399,782 425,847 451,594 452,593
TOTAL 5/ 568,934 633,035 674,056 701,541 727,074 733,838
1/ Preliminary. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Forecast August 1996. 4/ Forecast March
1997. 5/ Total includes 28 countries.
March 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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