WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, PART TWO
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-321) December 12, 1996.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on January 13, 1997.
BRAZIL: MOISTURE FAVORABLE IN ALL GROWING AREAS
During October 1996 in southern Brazil, above-normal monthly rainfall boosted topsoil moisture for soybean planting. From November 1 - 16, 1996, moderate to heavy rainfall continued to fall across southern Brazil. This rain for the most part favored topsoil moisture for soybean planting. However, heavier showers (50 - 180 millimeters per week) fell across Parana and caused some local flooding. During the weeks of November 17 - 23 and November 24 - 30, southern Brazil was mostly dry. This drier weather aided soybean planting from southern Mato Grosso do Sul and northern Parana southward. From northern Mato Gross do Sol and northern Sao Paulo northward, widespread showers increased soil moisture for soybeans, citrus, and coffee. From December 1 - 8, rain fell throughout southern Brazil's major crop areas. Rain was particularly widespread during the weekend of December 7 and 8. Following the two weeks of dry weather in late November, this rainfall was particularly beneficial to newly-planted soybeans.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: EARLY SEASON MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE
During October 1996, rainfall in South Africa was above normal across the wheat-growing areas of Cape Province as well as the eastern corn belt including the Orange Free State, Transvaal, and Kwazulu-Natal. Western Orange Free State, northern Transvaal, and corn-growing areas of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique were dry, slightly delaying corn planting. The heavy rain across Cape Province continued into November 1996 and threatened winter wheat quality. During the first week of November, moderate to heavy showers (15 - 25 millimeters or greater, and in some cases exceeding 50 millimeters) covered western areas of the Orange Free State, providing much-needed moisture for planting. To the east, rainfall was lighter than recent weeks and allowed corn planting to resume. In South Africa, corn planting typically peaks in November, with crops planted after mid-December at a greater risk of summer heat stress. During the week of November 10 - 16, mostly moderate rain covered the corn belt of South Africa, further improving planting prospects in previously dry sections of the west. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall also covered Zimbabwe, Botswana, southern Zambia, central Mozambique, and northeastern Namibia. This moisture favored corn planting in these countries which was somewhat delayed due to dryness. From November 17 - 30, moderate to heavy rainfall continued to provide favorable moisture for corn planting in both the corn belt of South Africa and the countries to the north. Heavy rainfall during November 17 - 23 again threatened wheat quality in Cape Province. Seasonably drier weather returned to Western Cape during November 24 through December 8, bringing some relief to mature winter wheat following recent heavy rain.
AUSTRALIA: GRAIN PRODUCTION REVISED HIGHER BY ABARE
According to a December 3 crop report released by Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 21.3 million tons, up 4.3 million or 25 percent from last season. The increase reflects an estimated 13-percent rise in planting as well as near-record yield. Barley output is estimated at 6.0 million tons, up 10 percent from 1995/96; oats at 1.6 million, down 17 percent; sorghum at 1.1 million, down 32 percent, corn at 0.3 million, up slightly; and rice at 1.5 million (rough basis), up 53 percent.
For the winter crops (wheat, barley, and oats), generally mild weather throughout the growing season in New South Wales has led to a nearly ideal finish to an already excellent season. The September frosts appear to have had minimal production impact on the state as a whole, although some areas (around Moree) reported yield and quality losses. Most of the winter crops are harvested in the north, while the harvest is less advanced in the central and southern regions.
In Victoria, rains were favorable from June through September, but well below average in October and November. Due to the excellent weather prior to the dryness, yield reduction was minimized. In addition, isolated frosts in late-September likely reduced yield potential and affected grain quality. Harvesting began in November and will continue into late-January.
In Queensland, harvesting is almost complete. The state experienced generally favorable weather, but frosts in late-September reduced yield and grain quality in the Central Highlands and southwestern regions. Yield for the State, however, remains exceptional.
In South Australia, scattered frosts in late-September and early-October, combined with the relatively dry finish to the season, reduced yield potential and may have caused some wheat to be downgraded. However, rainfall after the frosts proved to be timely and may have caused secondary tillering in some damaged crops. For the State, yield is expected to be well above average. With harvest activity about two to three weeks later this season, completion is expected by January.
In Western Australia, a wet season has contributed to excellent yields and caused harvesting delays. Dry weather is needed to accelerate the harvest pace. Harvest is virtually complete in the North and progresses south throughout December and January.
For the summer crops (corn, sorghum, and rice), planting is underway. Favorable rainfall has resulted in good soil moisture and allowed sorghum planting to start in central Queensland and northern New South Wales; however, area is projected to be lower than the previous year due to falling cereal prices. In addition, some plantings in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales are delayed due to late harvesting of the large winter crops. For rice, area is expected to be higher than last season as farmers respond to favorable returns and plentiful supplies of irrigation water. Thus far, the weather has been cool.
EUROPEAN UNION: RAPESEED AREA DOWN IN GERMANY, UP IN FRANCE
Strong rapeseed prices and a reduction in mandatory set-aside in the European Union were factors which should have led to higher planted rapeseed area. However, total German rapeseed area planted in 1996 (MY 1997/98) is thought to be just 800,000 hectares, down from 855,000 in MY 1996/97. This contrasts with planting intentions voiced by farmers prior to the 1996 grain and oilseeds harvest which indicated a 25-percent rise in area planted with rapeseed. The 1996 harvest was delayed by rain well into October and for some plots even into November; consequently, planting intentions in many areas simply could not be realized in time for successful growth. It is expected that much of the land made available by the adverse weather will be planted to grains, though some likely will be planted to spring rapeseed which is lower yielding than fall rapeseed.
In France, better fall planting weather prevailed and the reduced set-aside and high rapeseed prices allowed for more planted area. Planted area in France is believed to be around 900,000 hectares, up 4 percent from the 865,000 planted in 1996/97 and up 7 percent from 1995/96.
AUSTRALIA: OILSEEDS PRODUCTION ON THE RISE
Australian oilseed production has increased in recent years due to favorable returns for canola, sunflowerseed, and soybeans. These three crops combined are projected to reach over 1.7 million tons in 1996/97. This is more than double the output harvested 10 years ago. The December 3, 1996 Crop Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) provided the following highlights and projections for the 1996/97 oilseed crops.
Australian canola ("00" variety rapeseed) production is estimated at 597,000 tons, up 6 percent from 1995/96. Above-average yields are projected in most producing states, except in Western Australia, where plantings and yield are expected to be slightly below average. Very little of the canola had been harvested as of early-December, delayed in some states by recent rains. The bulk of the crop is expected to be collected by the end of the second week of the month. Early-harvest indications from New South Wales suggest excellent seed quality and high oil content (46 to 47 percent). In Western Australia, the oil content of early-harvested seeds is below normal.
This summer, growers' have become more interested in planting sunflowers (especially the high oleic variety) and soybeans as gross profit margins continue to favor these crops. Total Australian sunflower planting for 1996/97 is forecast to more than double, to 158,000 hectares. Of this area, about 30,000 hectares is expected to be sown to the high oleic variety. Queensland is the leading producer, with an estimated 110,000 hectares sown to sunflowers this summer. Of the sunflowers planted thus far, germination and early development have been good-to-excellent.
For soybeans, plantings are projected to climb 44 percent from last year, to 46,000 hectares. Most of the increased area is expected to come from traditional cattle country, especially along the coast of New South Wales.
CANADA: STATISTICS CANADA ESTIMATES FIELD CROPS
On December 5, Statistics Canada released production estimates of principal field crops for the 1996/97 season. The report indicated that production will increase from last year for wheat, barley, oats, and rye; decrease for canola and soybeans; and remain about the same for corn. Total wheat production is estimated at 30.5 million tons, up 22 percent from 1995/96. Barley production is estimated at 15.9 million tons, also up 22 percent. Oats will see the biggest percentage change, up 53 percent to 4.4 million tons, while rye's increase will be 4 percent, to 322,00. Canola production will drop 22 percent to 5.0 million tons, while soybean production will drop 5 percent to 2.2 million. Corn production is estimated by Statistics Canada at 7.2 million tons, down less than 1 percent from 1995/96.
Low global stocks and resultant high prices at the start of the planting season encouraged wheat and feed grain production at the expense of oilseeds. Cool, wet weather in the spring delayed planting, but favorable summer weather resulted in above-average yields for all crops. Record yields were set for wheat and barley. In October, cold, wet weather returned making harvest progress difficult and, by mid-November, a layer of thick snow had stopped harvesting with a portion of the crop in Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan still in the field. Saskatchewan Agriculture reports 350,000 hectares of the six major grains and oilseeds remain unharvested there, while Agriculture Canada reported 4 percent of Prairie fields have yet to be combined. It is unknown whether this grain will be harvested.
UNITED STATES: CROP CONDITIONS
Harvesting of the major row crops started November slightly behind schedule. In the Corn Belt, rain and snow slowed harvest activity, while in the eastern Corn Belt, high moisture levels in some late-maturing grain fields limited harvest progress. Snow and freezing rain in the western Corn Belt brought the row-crop harvest to a halt. Elevators in the central Great Plains were filled to capacity with grain due to a large production of corn and soybeans. Early in the month, wheat diseases were reported in the central Great Plains, but damage was minimal. The lateness in the row-crop harvest caused delays to wheat seeding in the Ohio Valley, leaving some acres unplanted. Heavy rain in the Eastern States were followed by freezing temperatures that limited fieldwork. Excessive rainfall delayed harvest activity and flooded some unharvested fields in the middle Mississippi Valley. In the Southeast, severe thunderstorms, some accompanied by tornadoes, and chilly weather stopped fieldwork. Freezing temperatures in early-November in the southern Great Plains were welcomed by cotton producers who waited for a hard freeze to aid defoliation. Wet weather at mid-month across the central Great Plains slowed row-crop harvest activity and prevented producers from completing small grain seeding. In the Dakotas, blizzard conditions brought harvest activity to a standstill and left some row crops unharvested until spring. Wheat producers in the Dakotas were concerned that short wheat stands were susceptible to blow-out during the winter. Producers struggled with muddy fields in the Ohio Valley as they attempted to finish combining row crops. Farmers hurried to chisel their fields in the Great Lakes region before a deep frost occurred. Farther south in the Delta, surplus soil moisture caused harvest activity to fall behind schedule.
Later in the month, cold, wet weather limited harvest activity and small grain seeding in the Midwest and slowed the dry down of row crops still in the field. Producers left some row crops unharvested until spring due to deep snow in the Dakotas. In the central Great Plains, persistent wet conditions required producers to wait for fields to freeze to support combines. Wet weather in the southern Great Plains and western Delta flooded fields and delayed the row-crop harvest. Heavy rains along the Pacific Coast caused flooding and halted all field activity. Low temperatures and dry conditions slowed wheat emergence on some replanted fields in the Mountain States. Cotton producers in the southern Great Plains waited for freezing temperatures to aid in defoliation, while producers in the Tennessee Valley commented that the cotton harvest would not be completed by year's end. Harvest activity was delayed by rains over the Southeast, but the moisture improved small grain and pasture conditions.
Persistent cool, wet weather at the end of November slowed harvest activity and small grain seeding across the Eastern States. Snowfall brought much-needed moisture across the southern and central Great Plains for recently planted small grains. Producers in the Northern States were concerned about the early-winter weather and snow accumulation and the lateness of small grain seedings. Deep snow in the Dakotas restricted grazing and forced producers to begin using feed supplies earlier than normal. Excessive rainfall in the Delta caused harvest activity to fall behind schedule. Showers over the mid-Atlantic restricted harvests but improved small grain and pasture conditions. Heavy rains along the Pacific Coast caused some flooding and slowed fieldwork and prevented some growers from planting field crops. Winter wheat emergence finished ahead of normal and ended the month in mostly good-to-fair condition. At month's end, late-planted wheat in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt remained susceptible to damage from heaving. Corn harvest progress started November behind the average but was virtually complete at month's end, slightly ahead of schedule. Cotton harvest progress started the month 1 percentage point behind the average, and wet weather during the month prevented progress from exceeding the average.
VIETNAM: RICE PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN 1996/97
The U.S. agricultural attache in Hanoi reports that Vietnam's rice production for 1996/97 is revised downward from 27.0 to 26.5 million tons (rough basis) because of storm damage and the expected use of higher-quality but lower-yielding varieties. Heavy flooding in the Mekong River Delta reduced quantity as well as quality of the 10th-month crop and will reduce area for the Winter-Spring crop. Also, the typhoon-lashed Red River provinces of Thai Binh and Thanh Hoa suffered damage to about 175,000 hectares of the 10th-month crop, of which about 50,000 hectares were destroyed by tropical storm Nikki in September. The total 10th-month crop for 1996/97 is projected down 5 percent from last year's output.
High prices, with little differentiation for quality, induced Vietnamese farmers to plant high-yielding, lower-quality varieties in 1995/96. Favorable weather and the use of low-priced fertilizer resulted in record production of 26.7 million tons, up 2.0 million from 1994/95. The high reliance on low-quality rice varieties led to a shortage of higher-quality rice. Consequently, for 1996/97, farmers are expected to plant higher-quality, lower-yielding varieties and production levels could be lower as a result.
VIETNAM: ROUGH RICE AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 Harvested Area (1,000 Ha) 10th Month 2,748 2,684 2,605 2,602 NA Winter-Spring 2,326 2,326 2,421 2,565 NA Summer-Autumn 1,549 1,549 1,742 2,020 NA Total 6,623 6,559 6,768 7,187 7,150 Yield (Kg/Ha) 10th Month 2,739 3,043 2,839 2,947 NA Winter-Spring 3,885 4,516 4,435 4,912 NA Summer-Autumn 3,637 3,635 3,732 3,168 NA Total 3,351 3,705 3,639 3,710 3,708
KAZAKSTAN: GRAIN SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUFFER SHORTAGES
Kazakstan's 1996/97 grain harvest has ended. According to a recent report submitted by the USDA office in Almaty, the total-grain harvest will be only 11.0 to 12.0 million tons, far below the earlier Kazak Government forecast of 16.0 million, but better than last season's poor harvest of 9.4 million. (The 1995/96 crop was the lowest recorded in the past 30 years.) Wheat production is estimated at 8.0 million tons, up 23 percent from last season, while barley is estimated at 2.4 million, down slightly from 1995/96. Before the breakup of the Soviet Union, Kazakstan produced about 20.0 to 25.0 million tons of grain.
During the 1996/97 planting campaign, Kazak farmers sowed nearly 17.0 million hectares of grain of which 12.2 million were in wheat, 3.6 million in barley, and 440,000 in oats. The area planted was almost 2.0 million hectares lower than in 1995/96 due to inclement weather and farmers that chose not to plant about 0.8 million hectares in barley due to low feed grain prices. The amount of land planted in grain has been steadily declining since Kazakstan became independent.
Before 1991, Kazakstan sowed as much as 23.0 million hectares in wheat, barley, rye, and other cereals. In addition, fertilizer was readily available at minimal cost during the Soviet Era. After Kazakstan's independence, subsidies to agriculture were drastically reduced. As result, fewer farmers could afford the inputs necessary to support previous yield levels. Virtually all of the 6.0 million hectares taken out of production since 1991 are in areas with inferior soil. Experts from Kazakstan's agricultural academy claim that soil fertility in all of the main grain-growing regions has fallen 30 percent since 1965.
This season, summer drought in western Kazakstan damaged nearly 1.0 million hectares and reduced the yields of surviving crops. In the north, autumn rains and, in some areas, early snow meant smaller harvests--in some districts 30 percent of the crop was lost. Yields per hectare varied widely between the south and north. Compounding farmers' difficulties, Russia suspended electricity deliveries periodically this fall as a means of forcing Kazakstan's repayment of overdue electrical bills. The ensuing brownouts in the north meant that farmers often lacked electricity to clean and dry grain, causing even greater losses. Fuel shortages and poorly maintained equipment were also important factors in the reduced harvest. Crops sometimes were left to rot in the fields or poorly stored in crumbling silos.
FORMER SOVIET UNION: WEATHER AND CROP DEVELOPMENTS
In crop areas west of the Ural Mountains, unusually mild weather prevailed in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, and Moldova during November. Temperatures in these areas averaged 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal, providing generally favorable conditions for winter grains but causing a lack of snow cover. Although temperatures in November were low enough to keep winter grains dormant in northern Russia, the mild weather caused winter grains to enter dormancy some 4 to 5 weeks later than usual in Belarus, the Baltics, western and northern Ukraine, and most of southern Russia. Furthermore, winter wheat in southern Ukraine and the western portion of the North Caucasus region in Russia continued to develop during the month. Above-normal precipitation in November helped to recharge soil moisture in Moldova, central Ukraine, most of Belarus, Latvia, and Estonia. Most of the moisture fell as rain during the period November 22-30, 1996. Elsewhere, below-normal precipitation occurred in western and eastern Ukraine and adjacent areas in Russia.
Since early-December, unseasonably mild weather continued over winter grain areas in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics, providing favorable overwintering conditions. Winter grains were in or entering dormancy as far south as southern Ukraine. Most winter grain areas continued to lack a protective snow cover, leaving crops vulnerable to potential extreme cold. Widespread precipitation, mainly rain, continued to replenish soil moisture from Moldova, northward through western Ukraine and Belarus, into the Baltics. Elsewhere, dry weather prevailed over most of Russia and eastern Ukraine.
FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION
World green coffee production in 1996/97 is forecast at 100.9 million 60-kilogram bags, up 1.8 million bags from the June forecast, but shy of the record 103.7 million bag crop harvested in 1991/92. The 1996/97 forecast is up 12 percent from the revised estimate of 89.9 million bags harvested last season. The increase is principally the result of a 10.2 million bag increase in Brazilian production.
Brazil: The world's largest coffee producer is expected to harvest 27.0 million bags in 1996/97, up 61 percent from last year's 16.8 million bag crop. The estimate is 500,000 bags less than the June forecast. The estimates for Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo are slightly lower than the June forecasts and the estimates for Sao Paulo and Parana are raised. Arabica coffee production is estimated at 22.0 million bags and Robusta at 5.0 million--3.7 million in Espirito Santo and 1.3 million in "other" states ( mostly Rondonia). Brazilian farmers harvested coffee from an estimated 3.38 billion trees, up 10 percent from 1995/96 because of recovery from the frosts of 1994.
BRAZIL: COFFEE PRODUCTION BY STATE (Million 60-kilogram bags) December 1995/96 1996/97 Parana 0.2 1.2 Sao Paulo 1.8 3.4 Minas Gerais center-west 2.9 4.0 southwest 4.4 7.0 southeast 1.9 3.0 Espirito Santo 3.1 5.4 Other States 2.5 3.0 Total 16.8 27.0
Colombia: Coffee production for 1996/97 is estimated at 12.5 million bags, down 3 percent from the revised outturn of 12.9 million in 1995/96 and 31 percent below the record of 18.0 million set in 1991/92. The downturn in 1996/97 reflects the continuing damage by the coffee borer worm (broca) as harvested area and the bearing tree numbers are each forecast to increase. Broca is a tiny borer insect that incubates in coffee cherries and leads to poor-quality beans and lower output.
Changes in Colombia's internal coffee production policy have strengthened the financial position of the National Coffee Fund (NCF), funds from which are used to support grower incomes. Additionally, the Government has instituted various policies designed to stabilize Colombia's share in world markets.
The Government and FEDECAFE (Coffee Growers' Federation) support and encourage development in the coffee sector because it accounts for 8 percent of overall employment and is vital to social stability in Colombia. Since May 1995, the Government and the private sector have provided growers with production incentives--including direct payments for improved cultivation methods and producer credit--at an estimated cost of US$193.0 million. Nevertheless, many growers are in a precarious situation because of heavy debt loads and high production costs--including treatments for the coffee borer worm. Inflation, combined with a stable exchange rate for the Colombian peso, have exacerbated the problem.
Indonesia: Coffee production for 1996/97 is estimated at a record 7.5 million bags, up 25 percent from 1995/96. The increase is due to favorable weather and beneficial rains in the main-producing areas of Lampung, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, and East Java which resulted in a good flowering period and increased formation of coffee cherries. In addition, average farmgate prices during the 1995/96 season were 52 percent higher than prices received in 1994/95 which encouraged growers to utilize ample inputs and proper cultivation methods. Coffee area for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, the same as a year ago. The total tree population of 1.5 billion in 1996/97 also is unchanged, but the number of bearing trees is up 1 percent from 1995/96, to 800.0 million.
Effective July 1996, the Government lifted the export restrictions called for under the Export Retention Program instituted by the Association of Coffee Producing Countries (ACPC). In the new ACPC Export Program, each member country provides production, export, and domestic consumption data to the ACPC. Based on this information and the ACPC target for world coffee demand for the year, the ACPC sets a seasonal export target level (July/June basis) for each member country. The ACPC set the export level for Indonesia at 6.0 million bags for July 1996 through June 1997.
Mexico: Coffee production for 1996/97 is estimated at 5.4 million bags, the same as the revised estimate for 1995/96, but approaching the 5.5 million bag record set in 1988/89. The optimistic outlook for 1996/97 is predicated on improved crop maintenance and a favorable response by growers to stronger state and federal support programs. Production in the state of Chiapas is expected to recover from last season's low level, but Veracruz and Puebla production--unusually high in 1995/96--will decline.
The Mexican Government has added coffee to the nine basic agricultural commodities which qualify for the national agricultural support program, PROCAMPO. The intention of the coffee program is to boost production and quality through the use of improved varieties that are higher-yielding and more resistant to insects and diseases such as the coffee borer worm and rust. Additionally, the program supports the establishment of new coffee fermenting installations and the development and establishment of coffee seedling nurseries.
Guatemala: Coffee production for 1996/97 is estimated at an all-time high of 3.93 million bags, 3 percent above last season's record output. The upturn is due to beneficial, early-season rains and increases in both harvested area and bearing tree numbers. Better agronomic practices, due to favorable world coffee prices, and increased plantings in higher elevations throughout the country also are contributing to the increase. Some producers are marketing coffee as "specialty coffees" which receive premium prices. Additionally, small amounts of coffee are being labeled organic, green stamp, or eco-friendly.
Cote d'Ivoire: Coffee production during the 1996/97 season is estimated at 4.0 million bags, up 38 percent from last season's outturn of 2.9 million, but considerably below the record 6.1 million bags produced in 1980/81. The substantial increase forecast for 1996/97 is due to favorable weather which encouraged ample cherry formation and improved farm maintenance practices. Furthermore, the 1996/97 season is an "on-year" in the biennial bearing pattern of coffee.
On November 13, the Government announced that the opening of the coffee season was set for November 14 rather than January 1997 as previously announced. Given the early coffee harvest, dim prospects for significant improvement in world market prices, and an active parallel market, the Government decided to reduce the indicative producer price--from 700 CFA francs per kilogram, to 500 CFA francs per kilogram including 5 CFA francs/kilogram for bags--and open the marketing season. Presumably, banks will now begin financing coffee purchases by exporters.
Franklin Hokana, Tropical Products Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0875
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION (1,000 60-Kg Bags) 1/ Region and Country 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 Dec 2/ NORTH AMERICA Costa Rica 2,475 2,492 2,595 2,500 Cuba 365 400 250 250 Dominican Repub 545 650 790 730 El Salvador 2,361 2,314 2,325 2,220 Guatemala 3,078 3,500 3,827 3,927 Haiti 430 440 440 440 Honduras 2,060 2,295 2,254 2,500 Jamaica 25 44 45 45 Mexico 4,200 4,030 5,400 5,400 Nicaragua 695 685 920 800 Panama 202 136 200 200 Trinidad and To 15 15 10 15 United States 3 228 238 241 209 TOTAL 16,679 17,239 19,297 19,236 SOUTH AMERICA Bolivia 80 95 120 140 Brazil 28,500 28,000 16,800 27,000 Colombia 11,400 13,000 12,900 12,500 Ecuador 2,150 2,550 1,900 1,700 Guyana 5 5 5 5 Paraguay 70 50 70 60 Peru 1,022 1,453 1,850 1,450 Venezuela 920 920 1,260 1,100 TOTAL 44,147 46,073 34,905 43,955 AFRICA Angola 30 70 90 90 Benin 35 35 35 35 Burundi 375 600 400 500 Cameroon 1,250 1,000 1,200 1,000 Central African 150 250 300 350 Congo 25 25 25 25 Cote d'Ivoire 2,700 3,733 2,900 4,000 Equatorial Guin 15 15 15 15 Ethiopia 3,700 3,800 3,800 3,900 Gabon 25 25 25 25 Ghana 25 30 30 30 Guinea 100 100 100 100 Kenya 1,230 1,584 1,580 1,422 Liberia 10 10 10 10 Madagascar 700 1,000 1,100 1,100 Malawi 125 70 80 80 Nigeria 42 50 55 55 Rwanda 487 80 350 300 Sierra Leone 80 70 70 70 Tanzania 567 820 850 700 Togo 185 250 100 250 Uganda 2,700 3,100 4,200 3,700 Zaire 900 1,300 1,000 1,000 Zambia 26 23 27 30 Zimbabwe 65 155 75 200 TOTAL 15,547 18,195 18,417 18,987 ASIA India 3,465 3,060 3,700 3,200 Indonesia 7,400 6,400 6,000 7,500 Laos 130 100 150 150 Malaysia 150 153 158 160 Philippines 875 878 850 905 Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60 Thailand 1,200 1,400 1,300 1,400 Vietnam 2,500 3,500 4,000 4,300 Yemen 65 65 65 65 TOTAL 15,845 15,616 16,283 17,740 OCEANIA New Caledonia 5 5 5 5 Papua New Guine 1,080 1,050 1,000 1,000 TOTAL 1,085 1,055 1,005 1,005 WORLD TOTAL 93,303 98,178 89,907 100,923
1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds.
2/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others.
3/ Includes Puerto Rico and Hawaii.
NOTE: Production estimates for some countries include cross-border movements.
December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., USDA, FAS
WORLD WHEAT SITUATION
World wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 579.6 million tons, up 42.7 million or 8 percent from last year. This is the highest level since 588.0 million tons was produced in 1990/91. Harvested area is estimated at 230.0 million hectares, up 5 percent from 1995/96 and the highest since 231.4 million was harvested in 1990/91. The average world yield is estimated at 2.52 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last season. For 1996/97, wheat production in the European Union and China are estimated at record levels with Australia and Argentina producing their second-largest crops. With the exception of Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and India, most of the other countries are estimated to have produced more wheat this year. (See table 3 of this circular for area, yield, and production for individual countries and regions.)
United States: Wheat production in the United States for 1996/97 is estimated at 62.1 million tons, up 5 percent from last year. The yield estimate of 2.44 tons per hectare is slightly higher than last season, but 2 percent below the 5-year average of 2.49 tons. Winter wheat production is estimated at 40.2 million tons, down 4 percent from last year. Severe winter weather across the Plains States contributed to the reduction in harvested area below last season's level, despite a 1.3 million hectare increase in total planted winter wheat area. Yield, however, is estimated to be slightly higher than 1995/96. Spring wheat is estimated 26 percent higher than last year, at 21.9 million tons. The rise is attributed to increased area and higher yield across the Northern Plains than last season. The 1997/98 winter wheat ended the season in mostly good to fair condition, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistic Service's (NASS) final crop progress report for CY1996. The winter wheat crop condition at that time indicated that 75 percent of the wheat was in excellent to good condition versus 49 percent last season during the same time period. On January 10, 1997 the USDA is scheduled to release the 1997/98 Winter Wheat and Rye Seedings Report, while Crop Progress is scheduled to begin again on April 8, 1997.
Canada: Wheat production in Canada for 1996/97 is estimated at 30.5 million tons, up 2 percent from last year. High international prices for wheat and rotational requirements for rapeseed are credited with increasing wheat area to an estimated 12.7 million hectares, up 12 percent from 1995/96. A cool, wet spring across the Prairie Provinces delayed planting, causing development to be two weeks behind normal. Generally favorable summer weather across the Prairies spurred crop development and pushed yield to a record 2.41 tons per hectare. In Saskatchewan, wet conditions during harvest reduced quality and contributed to harvest loss. According to a recent Statistics Canada report, there is an unknown quantity of grain still in the fields under snow and it is not known whether these grains will be harvested. In Ontario, winter wheat yield was down sharply due to extremely cold temperatures last winter that resulted in winterkill. In addition, the crop suffered from an infestation of fusarium during the summer. For 1997/98, winter wheat planted area may decline sharply due to the lateness of the soybean harvest and concern of disease carryover from the 1996/97 crop.
European Union (EU): Production in the EU for 1996/97 is forecast at a record 99.0 million tons, up 15 percent from last season's 86.2 million-ton crop. Yield is estimated at a record 5.80 tons per hectare, an increase of 8 percent over the previous record set two years ago. Harvested area is estimated up 6 percent from last year due to a reduction in area set-aside requirements and strong world prices. The largest production increases are in France and Spain, up 4.6 and 3.5 million tons, respectively. The increase in France was due to the reduction in set-aside requirements and strong world prices while most of the increase in Spain reflects recovery from drought in 1995/96. For France, yield is estimated at a record 7.10 tons per hectare (up 6 percent from the previous record in 1994/95) despite lower-than-normal precipitation across northern France. Production in the United Kingdom is estimated up 10 percent, to 15.8 million tons, as yield reached 6 percent above the previous year's level. For 1997/98, winter wheat planted area may rise due to a further reduction in set aside. Field conditions were favorable this fall for sowing although heavy rains in Germany and northern Italy caused planting delays.
Eastern Europe: Wheat production in Eastern Europe for 1996/97 is estimated at 26.4 million tons, down 25 percent from last season. Harvested area fell nearly 1.0 million hectares, to 8.7 million, as unfavorable spring weather adversely affected the crop. In the northern regions of Eastern Europe, cold temperatures with little snow cover reduced yield potential. In the southern areas, cold temperatures beginning in early November 1995 and extending into late spring were followed by a quick warming trend which significantly reduced yield and harvested area. Romania and Bulgaria were affected the most, with yields reduced by 44 and 34 percent, respectively from 1995/96. Economic difficulties for the producers continued to plague many producers throughout the region. For the 1997/98 season, the weather has been generally favorable for planting and early establishment.
Australia: Wheat production in Australia during 1996/97 is estimated at 21.5 million tons, up 27 percent from last year. This is the second-highest level achieved since 22.0 million tons were produced in 1983/84. Area is estimated 14 percent higher than last year as land devoted to sheep pasture and less profitable grain, oilseed, and legume crops were reduced. The crop is currently being harvested in the northern areas and is progressing south. Yield is estimated at 1.94 tons per hectare (slightly below the 1993/94 record level of 1.97 tons) due to generally favorable weather throughout the season. Earlier frosts in New South Wales and Queensland and below-normal rainfall in October and November in Victoria and South Australia kept the yield below the record level.
Argentina: Wheat production in Argentina for 1996/97 is estimated at a record 15.5 million tons, up 68 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 6.6 million hectares, up 38 percent from last season's drought-reduced area. Producers increased wheat area in response to high international prices. Crop conditions have been beneficial in the main wheat-growing province of Buenos Aires, with the exception of late October when below-freezing temperatures stressed some areas; however, minimal damage was reported. In Cordoba and La Pampa Provinces, dryness stressed the crop, but October and November rains improved the situation. Yield is estimated at a record 2.35 tons per hectare, surpassing the previous level of 2.33 tons in 1992/93 and up 22 percent from last year. Increased fertilizer use and favorable conditions during critical development phases in Buenos Aires Province bolstered yield. Harvesting begins in November in the northern regions and proceeds south through January.
China: The wheat crop is estimated at a record 109.0 million tons, up 7 percent from 1995/96. Encouraged by high procurement prices, farmers increased area by an estimated 0.6 million hectares, to 29.5 million, and yields are projected to reach a record 3.69 tons per hectare. Winter wheat output, which accounts for about 90 percent of total wheat production, reached record levels this season due to favorable weather throughout the growing season. Also, spring wheat experienced favorable weather which boosted yield. For 1997/98, winter wheat was planted under favorable conditions as high rainfall during the fall provided ample soil moisture. Reports indicate that area may be slightly higher than 1996/97.
Russia: Wheat production is estimated at 35.0 million tons, up 4.9 million or 16 percent from last year's poor crop. Wheat area increased by 1.1 million hectares, to 25.0 million, due primarily to favorable fall and winter weather which allowed sufficient time for planting and reduced winterkill. However, the crop suffered from subsequent hot, dry weather in May and a severe heat wave in early July that reduced yield potential of spring wheat in the Volga Valley. Excessive precipitation, cold temperatures, and continued economic difficulties in Siberia caused harvest delays and crop loss. Yield is estimated at 1.40 tons per hectare, down 13 percent from the 5-year average. For the 1997/98 crop, reports indicate that total winter grain area is lower than 1996/97. Unseasonably warm, dry weather across the northern grain belt resulted in unfavorable moisture levels as the plants entered dormancy. Most areas continued to lack a protective snow cover. In the southern area, moisture conditions favored crop establishment.
Ukraine: Although wheat area increased 14 percent from 1995/96, wheat production is estimated at 14.5 million tons, down 11 percent from last year. Unfavorable spring and early-summer weather, along with reduced fertilizer application rates, had a significant negative effect on the crop -- reducing yield to 2.32 tons per hectare, the lowest level in Ukraine since the breakup of the FSU. An abbreviated spring tillering period resulted in thin winter wheat stands, and the crop subsequently suffered from high May temperatures and severe localized dryness. In an effort to boost grain production for the 1997/98 season, winter grain planted area is reported to be higher than that of the 1996 crop. Thus far, the crop is in good condition with ample soil moisture as the crop enters dormancy.
Kazakstan: Wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 8.0
million tons, up 1.5 million or 23 percent from last year. Yield
is estimated at 0.66 tons per hectare, up 27 percent from last
year's drought-affected crop, but 18 percent below the 5-year
average. Although the crop is above last year's dismal level,
severe dryness in key western grain regions suppressed yield. In
addition, autumn rains with early snow in some regions, reduced
fertilizer availability, shortages of fuel, and poorly maintained
equipment were important factors contributing to a
smaller-than-average harvest. Winter wheat production accounts
for about 10 percent of total wheat and reportedly less area was
sown for 1997/98 production. Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairman
Phone: (202) 720-1572
MAJOR WORLD COTTON PRODUCERS
World cotton production for 1996/97 is forecast at 85.9 million 480-pound bales, down 6 percent from the 1995/96 crop. World area is forecast to decrease 6 percent and yield is estimated down 1 percent from a year ago. The production decline for 1996/97 ended the annual rise that began two years ago. The world's largest cotton producers, the United States and China, are projected to account for 42 percent of global production and together with the next five largest producers are expected to account for 77 percent of the world cotton output in 1996/97.
Although most of the other major producers had large crops in 1996/97, the United States and Australia are the only producers forecast to exceed last year's output. Production in these other major producers declined because of insect damage, disease, and/or floods. This report highlights the top seven cotton producing nations, which include the United States, China, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Australia. These countries were ranked based on estimated production for 1996/97 and are forecast to produce 66.2 million bales of cotton this season.
United States: The United States is currently the world's largest cotton producer. Output for 1996/97 is estimated at 18.7 million bales, up 0.8 million from last year, but down 1.0 million from the 1994/95 record of 19.7 million. While area declined 20 percent due to relatively higher priced alternative crops, yields increased 31 percent to a near-record high. By mid-July the cotton crop was in mostly good-to-fair condition in the 14 major producing States with slight declines in the Southeast due to increased insect activity and hot, dry weather. Crop development was ahead of normal in Tennessee and Texas. Rains in the Texas Plains, combined with hot weather, increased crop development but aided insect activity. Cotton was sprayed for bollworms and bollweevils in the Delta and across the Southeast. In California, cotton was sprayed with growth regulators and insecticides. In early September, cotton condition declined but remained mostly good to fair for the 14 major producing States. Some fields with open bolls in Arizona were damaged by heavy precipitation and high winds. Bollworms and bollweevils were prevalent in parts of the Delta, where some boll rot was reported because of the recent heavy rains. Cotton defoliation began in California's southern San Joaquin Valley. With cotton bollworm populations increasing in the Texas High Plains, producers applied insecticides before the heavy rains arrived. Heavy rainfall damaged some cotton in the Texas Coastal Bend, while cool weather slowed development. As of December 1, the cotton harvest is nearing completion. On a national level, cotton acreage harvested was estimated at 87 percent, equaling last year's level and the five-year average. Cotton growers in Arizona harvested 82 percent of their acreage, but were 14 percentage points behind the five-year average as producers wait for more bolls to develop. The cotton harvest in Texas equaled the five-year average of 75 percent completed, with backlogs at some gins reported. In the Southeast, harvest progress exceeded the average of 89 percent. Louisiana and Mississippi are the only states where the cotton harvest is complete.
China: The world's second-largest cotton producer is estimated to produce one-fifth of global output this year, despite unfavorable growing conditions. Output for 1996/97 is estimated at 17.5 million bales, down 4.4 million or 20 percent from 1995/96. Area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, down 0.6 million. From the beginning of the season, several significant factors indicated a reduced level of output for this year. The foremost factor was the price relationship favoring competing crops over cotton. State gins are holding large stocks of cotton from the 1995/96 season and will not make additional purchases until late in the 1996/97 harvest period. Another factor was the May-June drought in the North China Plain (NCP) that limited planting. As the growing season progressed, the weather was favorable on the NCP, but heavy rain in August caused widespread flooding in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan; especially along the Yellow River and its tributaries. Yields were reduced and the duration of the floods stimulated insect infestations in these provinces. The western province of Xinjiang was the only area that had mostly favorable weather throughout the season.
India: Cotton production for 1996/97 is estimated at 12.3 million bales, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year's record crop. While lower cotton prices pushed area below the record 1995 level, area is still projected to be the second largest on record, with early harvest results indicating higher yields throughout much of India. Weather has been generally good throughout much of the 1996 monsoon season with very few cotton-producing areas receiving poor or erratic rainfall. Except for heavy rains in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, harvest conditions have been good, and quality is expected to improve over last year. Heavy rains are not unusual in Andhra Pradesh at this time of year and cotton production in the area usually weathers heavy late-season rains without significant declines in production. Harvest is underway in the north and central zones and market arrivals through November 14, 1996, were 700,000 bales, slightly ahead of the 1995 pace of 650,000 bales. Weather in December and January, such as storms in the south or rains in central India, could still affect harvesting.
Uzbekistan: Production in 1996/97 is estimated at 4.8 million bales, down 0.9 million or 16 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 1.5 million hectares, unchanged from last season. This year's crop was plagued by unfavorable weather from planting to harvest. Just after emergence, the crop was damaged by cool, wet weather which reduced yield potential. Weather problems continued as late-season rains and cool temperatures combined to reduce both quality and yield. As of early December, Uzbekistan had harvested nearly all of its cotton. No official statistics have been published on the final outturn but analysis indicates that little more will be harvested.
Pakistan: Production is estimated at 6.8 million bales, down 1.4 million or 17 percent from last year's crop. Area is forecast at a record 3.2 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 5 percent from last season as area was increased in both the Punjab and the Sindh regions. Despite the increase in area, insect damage to the 1996/97 cotton crop is substantial and more than offsets the increase in area. As a result, yields in most of the cotton-growing areas are reported to be down 10 to 33 percent compared to last year. Damage from the white fly alone is reported to be substantially more severe than occurred in the 1993/94 crop that resulted in yields of 488 kilograms per hectare and a crop of 6.3 million bales. Unfortunately, the severity of the damage is greater this year because the white fly infestation emerged in August during the plant development stage. Normally, the insect appears in the second half of September as the crop is nearing maturity. In addition, the white fly has shown resistance to most of the pesticides available on the market.
Turkey: Production for 1996/97 is estimated at 3.5 million bales, down 0.3 million or 9 percent from last year's record. The production forecast was reduced primarily due to early-season rains in both the Aegean and southeastern regions. In September, the harvest was several weeks late and the rains arrived several weeks early. September was the wettest of the century in the Aegean region. The rains continued into October and extended into the cotton-growing areas of southeastern Turkey. With only an estimated 60 percent of the crop harvested in October in the Aegean and southeastern regions, the rains caused significant yield loss and quality damage.
Australia: Production for 1996/97 is estimated at 2.6 million bales, up 0.7 million or 35 percent from last year. Reservoir levels at 75 percent of capacity and heavy rains in the September/October period improved Australia's cotton production prospects for 1996/97. As a result, crop area has risen sharply as more irrigated cotton was planted. The area planted is estimated at a record 390,000 hectares, up 86,000 or 28 percent from last year. Without the shortages of irrigation water and soil moisture that hindered the Australian cotton industry for the past four seasons, virtually all the increase in area has come from irrigated plantings. Most of the increase in last year's production came from an increased area of rainfed cotton. Unlike last year, this year's production reflects a sharp increase in average yield because of the increased proportion of higher-yielding irrigated cotton. The yield for 1996/97 is forecast at 1,452 kilograms per hectare, up 5 percent from last season.
Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0879
WORLD PEANUT PRODUCTION AND OUTLOOK
World peanut production for 1996/97 is forecast at 26.1 million tons, up 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year's output of 25.9 million. While India is forecast to harvest a near-record peanut crop, China's production is projected down 0.7 million tons from a year ago. Peanut-producing countries worldwide had a generally good season due to favorable growing conditions. This includes most countries that rely on peanut and peanut product exports for a significant portion of their foreign exchange and reserves. Table 14--peanut area, yield, and production for 1994/95 through 1996/97--provides the official USDA country estimates for December 1996. (See the accompanying charts for the past 10 years production by the major producers. Their 1996/97 projected peanut imports and exports are shown for comparison.)
China: China is the world's largest producer of peanuts and accounts for about 36 percent of world output. Although it has less than half the planted area of second-place India, China's yields of 2.5 to 2.7 tons per hectare are more than twice as high. Harvested area for 1996/97 is estimated at 3.8 million hectares, down slightly from last year. Peanut production for 196/97 is estimated at 9.5 million tons, down 0.3 million or 7 percent from last year's record crop. Flooding was reported this summer in some peanut-growing areas, particularly Shandong and Henan Provinces, but crop conditions in other areas have been favorable and good yields are expected. Peanuts are grown widely throughout China, but about 60 percent of total production comes from the Provinces of Shandong, Henan, and Hebei on the North China Plain. Also, peanuts are an important cash crop in Guangxi and Guangdong Provinces in southern China, as well as in Anhui and Jiangsu in eastern China. Peanuts are generally grown on non-irrigated and low-quality land, making them more vulnerable to drought than crops such as corn, soybeans, and cotton. Although peanut area and production has been trending higher in recent years, this may change in the future as China continues to move closer to a market economy. Peanut production can be expected to be more unstable as farmers increasingly react to price changes.
India: India ranks as the world's second-largest peanut producer. The 1996/97 crop is estimated at 8.2 million tons, up 0.8 million or 11 percent from 1995/96. Harvested area in 1996/97 is estimated at 8.2 million hectares, the largest in the world. Peanuts are the key oilseed cultivated in India, but are subject to wide fluctuations in annual production. The peanut harvest of the 1996/97 kharif (fall harvested) season was completed in November. Poor rains at the end of the monsoon period in Gujarat hindered proper pod development. However, because of early and timely mid-season rains, this State will not repeat last year's poor harvest. Heavy rains and floods in Andhra Pradesh may have hurt the peanut crop. The extent of the damage has yet to be ascertained, but initial reports indicate it could be minimal. Andhra Pradesh accounts for roughly 15 percent of India's kharif peanut production. The outlook for the largely irrigated rabi (winter season planted in November-December) peanut crop in Andhra Pradesh is good. Recent rains have replenished reservoirs and tanks. A good rabi crop is expected to offset the decline in output of the kharif harvest. The peanut production outlook in other major producing states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, is projected to be above average.
Indonesia: Indonesia is the world's third-largest peanut producer, but accounts for only 3 percent of the world's total output. Harvested area during 1996/97 is estimated at 620,000 hectares, the same as last year, and production is pegged at a 0.9 million tons, up 10,000 or 1 percent from a year ago. Peanuts are grown mainly on the Islands of Java (66 percent) and Sumatra (13 percent). Future expansion in peanut area likely will occur on the Islands of Sumatra and Sulawesi where undeveloped land is available; however, input costs will be higher due to less-fertile soil. There is no Indonesian Government program for peanuts as there are for other commodities such as rice and soybeans. Despite Indonesia's attempts to increase peanut production through research to improve varieties, average yields have remained stable. Increased peanut output has come from a slow upward trend in area. Prime cropland is limited in Indonesia and is under significant pressure for alternative uses such as industrial and urban development.
Argentina: Argentina is Latin America's primary peanut producer; however, it accounts for only 1 percent of the world peanut production. Production for 1996/97 is forecast at 360,000 tons, up 10,000 or 3 percent from last year. Peanut area is concentrated in Cordoba Province and accounts for 98 percent of the crop. Production has ranged between 243,000 and 574,000 tons over the last 10 years due primarily to variability in planted area. Harvested area for 1996/97 is projected at 0.2 million hectares, virtually the same as last year. The decision to plant peanuts depends on peanut prices relative to soybeans -- the main alternative crop. Peanuts are 3 to 4 times more expensive to produce than soybeans. Peanut planting typically begins in November and harvesting in May. Currently, soil moisture and growing conditions are favorable. Eighty to 90 percent of production is the Virginia or runner type varieties and an estimated 60 to 70 percent are utilized as confectionery peanuts; the remainder is crushed. There are no Government support programs for peanuts.
Senegal and Gambia: Senegal is Africa's principal peanut producer. Peanut production during 1996/97 is estimated at 850,000 tons, up 40,000 or 5 percent from last year. This season's growing conditions were better than the past two years, boosting both yield and harvested area. Gambia is projected to produce an estimated 115,000 tons of peanuts during 1996/97, essentially unchanged from 1995/96. The entire country of Gambia is located within the Senegal Peanut Basin and has benefitted from favorable and timely growing conditions. Typically, about 25 percent of the Gambian peanut crop is sold in Senegal where support prices are significantly higher.
United States: The National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture estimates
the 1996/97 U. S. peanut crop at 1.5 million tons, down 21,000 or
1 percent from 1995/96 and down 29 percent from the record 2.2
million-ton crop of 1994/95. Harvested area is estimated at 0.6
million hectares, down 7 percent from last year. Production in
the southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is estimated 1 percent below the 1995/96 crop. Rains
delayed harvest during the first part of October but clear skies
followed, bringing excellent harvest conditions for remainder of
the month. Producers reported highly variable yields across the
region. Production in Virginia and North Carolina is estimated up
5 percent above last year. North Carolina's crop benefitted from
above-average temperatures and overall favorable growing
conditions. The extended period of dry weather allowed farmers to
get into fields that earlier were too wet to dig. Virginia
producers also experienced near-ideal digging and harvesting
conditions during October. The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico,
Oklahoma, and Texas) is projected up 4 percent from last year due
largely to better yields. Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0881
UNMANUFACTURED TOBACCO PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
Preliminary assessments indicate that the 1997 tobacco crops will be higher in several of the world's major producing countries. Larger crops are forecast in Argentina, Brazil, Malawi, Mexico, Turkey, and Zimbabwe, with marginally smaller output anticipated in China. For 1996, production of unmanufactured tobacco in these countries and the United States is estimated at 4.38 million tons (farm sales weight basis), up 11 percent from 1995 due to increased output in every country except Zimbabwe. Higher production in China and the United States account for most of the advance for 1996.
China: Production of tobacco in 1996--92 percent of which is flue-cured tobacco--is estimated at 2.50 million tons of good-quality leaf, 8 percent more than the 1995 harvest because of wider use of improved cultivation practices and favorable weather throughout the later part of the growing season. Increased area was also a factor in the upturn, rising from 1.47 million hectares in 1995 to an estimated 1.52 million in 1996. The preliminary forecast for 1997 indicates that planted area and production may decrease slightly as the China National Tobacco Corporation endeavors to keep supply in balance with demand.
Long-term growth is anticipated in the tobacco sector as industry officials take steps to boost yields and raise leaf quality by introducing new varietal stock, improving the quality and usage of fertilizers, and adopting more effective pest control measures. Efforts to relocate tobacco leaf production from the Yellow River Valley provinces are progressing slowly. Tobacco is a crop that generates significant tax revenues for local governments and initiatives to eliminate such a steady source of income have been resisted.
United States: Tobacco production for 1996 is estimated at 701,182 tons, up 22 percent from last year due to increased plantings of burley and flue-cured tobaccos and higher yields. The 1996 flue-cured crop is pegged at 400,760 tons, up 18 percent from 1995. Burley production is estimated up 31 percent, to 259,610 tons. The increase in U.S. production this year is mainly due to improved weather following last year's untimely rains. The first estimate of 1997 total unmanufactured tobacco production will be released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service in August 1997.
Brazil: Tobacco production for 1996 is estimated at 452,000 tons, up 14 percent from last year largely due to increased plantings and improved weather. The 1996 crop is of good quality despite excessive moisture and virosis disease problems near the end of 1995. The key to the upward trend in production and the consistent quality of Brazil's crop lies in improved crop management and massive support from tobacco companies that finance input purchases such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and packaging materials and provide ongoing technical assistance. These factors, coupled with further growth in plantings are expected to boost production an additional 16-percent in 1997, to 526,000 tons.
Zimbabwe: Tobacco production for 1996 is estimated at 207,756 tons, off marginally from 1995. While flue-cured tobacco production rose slightly in 1996, to 201,550 tons, burley production plummeted 40 percent, to 6,175, because of reduced plantings. Nearly half the burley crop is grown by small-scale commercial farmers or peasants who lacked sufficient inputs during the 1995 seeding period to maintain the area under burley cultivation. With this year's abundant summer rains replenishing irrigation supplies and the higher farmgate prices received by growers for their 1996 tobacco crops, production of all tobacco types is forecast up in 1997, to 243,542 tons.
Turkey: Tobacco production for 1996 is estimated at 227,050 tons, up 10 percent from 1995 as strong demand generated increased output of oriental and flue-cured tobaccos. For the past few years, the Government has successfully limited production of oriental tobacco in order to solve the costly problems of over-production and burdensome stocks. However, rising demand in overseas markets for high-quality oriental leaf has prompted the Government to push up the production target. Consequently, production of oriental tobacco is forecast up 7 percent in 1997, to 235,000 tons, with total tobacco production projected up by the same percentage, to 242,700 tons.
Malawi: Tobacco production is estimated up 9 percent in 1996, to 142,065 tons. Production of burley--the main tobacco type produced in Malawi--rose 16 percent, to 117,940 tons because of strong demand for Malawi's low-cost, solid quality, filler burley tobacco. Based on preliminary estimates of increased plantings of most tobacco types in 1997, tobacco production in 1997 is forecast up an additional 16 percent, to 164,540 tons, approximately four-fifths of which is expected to be burley tobacco.
Argentina: Tobacco production for 1996 is estimated at 98,200 tons, up 24 percent from last year because of increased plantings and higher yields. Production in 1997 is forecast at a record 123,000 tons as favorable grower returns in 1996 and continued strong foreign demand encouraged further area expansion.
Mexico: Tobacco production in Mexico in 1996 is estimated up 6
percent, to 48,122 tons. A further increase, to 49,000 tons, is
forecast in 1997 due to increased plantings spurred by rising
overseas demand for burley tobacco and lower production costs
made possible by the industry/grower partnerships authorized
under the new agrarian law. Arthur Hausamann, Agricultural
Phone: (202) 720-8883
Tobacco: Area In Selected Countries Hectare 1995 1996 1997 Argentina Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 17,600 18,800 23,600 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 26,600 31,500 37,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 600 600 600 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 8,700 8,100 6,800 Total Tobacco 53,500 59,000 68,000 Brazil Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 41,000 46,000 53,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 160,000 174,000 198,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 2,000 3,000 5,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 53,000 59,000 59,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Tobacco 259,000 285,000 318,000 China Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 41,000 38,000 38,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 10,000 15,000 15,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 1,309,000 1,367,000 1,370,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 110,000 100,000 90,000 Total Tobacco 1,470,000 1,520,000 1,513,000 Malawi Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 101,270 110,000 125,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 1,100 700 900 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 14,020 12,000 14,000 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 24,680 25,000 26,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 1,815 1,750 1,550 Total Tobacco 142,885 149,450 167,450 Mexico Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 11,700 12,230 12,600 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 0 31 30 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 3,150 3,553 3,500 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 800 800 1,870 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 4,970 5,847 6,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 216 155 900 Total Tobacco 20,836 22,616 24,900 Turkey Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 700 700 700 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 257,000 229,200 245,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 2,150 3,800 3,000 Total Tobacco 259,850 233,700 248,700 United States Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 94,777 112,140 NA Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 156,289 167,867 NA Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 6,831 6,795 NA Unmfg., Light Air Cured 4,816 4,655 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 1,691 1,550 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 3,946 3,909 NA Total Tobacco 268,350 296,916 NA Zimbabwe Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 66,950 45,406 5,200 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 200 205 250 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 74,606 81,500 93,000 Total Tobacco 141,756 127,111 98,450 December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., USDA, FAS Tobacco: Area In Selected Countries Hectare 1995 1996 1997 Argentina Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 17,600 18,800 23,600 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 26,600 31,500 37,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 600 600 600 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 8,700 8,100 6,800 Total Tobacco 53,500 59,000 68,000 Brazil Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 41,000 46,000 53,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 160,000 174,000 198,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 2,000 3,000 5,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 53,000 59,000 59,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Tobacco 259,000 285,000 318,000 China Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 41,000 38,000 38,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 10,000 15,000 15,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 1,309,000 1,367,000 1,370,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 110,000 100,000 90,000 Total Tobacco 1,470,000 1,520,000 1,513,000 Malawi Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 101,270 110,000 125,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 1,100 700 900 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 14,020 12,000 14,000 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 24,680 25,000 26,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 1,815 1,750 1,550 Total Tobacco 142,885 149,450 167,450 Mexico Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 11,700 12,230 12,600 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 0 31 30 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 3,150 3,553 3,500 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 800 800 1,870 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 4,970 5,847 6,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 216 155 900 Total Tobacco 20,836 22,616 24,900 Turkey Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 700 700 700 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 257,000 229,200 245,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 2,150 3,800 3,000 Total Tobacco 259,850 233,700 248,700 United States Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 94,777 112,140 NA Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 156,289 167,867 NA Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 6,831 6,795 NA Unmfg., Light Air Cured 4,816 4,655 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 1,691 1,550 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 3,946 3,909 NA Total Tobacco 268,350 296,916 NA Zimbabwe Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 66,950 45,406 5,200 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 200 205 250 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 74,606 81,500 93,000 Total Tobacco 141,756 127,111 98,450 December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., USDA, FAS Tobacco: Production In Selected Countries Metric 1995 1996 1997 Argentina Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 21,900 26,880 37,700 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 43,150 58,800 73,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 1,760 1,280 1,300 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 12,200 11,240 11,000 Total Tobacco 79,010 98,200 123,000 Brazil Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 53,000 70,000 88,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 289,000 317,000 369,000 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 3,000 5,000 9,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 48,000 54,000 54,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 5,000 6,000 6,000 Total Tobacco 398,000 452,000 526,000 China Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 80,000 67,000 67,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 15,000 18,000 20,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 2,072,000 2,300,000 2,300,000 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 147,000 115,000 105,000 Total Tobacco 2,314,000 2,500,000 2,492,000 Malawi Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 101,450 117,940 135,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 504 400 525 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 19,947 15,410 20,000 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 8,180 7,742 8,500 Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 605 573 515 Total Tobacco 130,686 142,065 164,540 Mexico Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 24,532 26,521 27,500 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 0 40 40 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 7,342 8,020 8,200 Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 803 888 460 Unmfg., Light Air Cured 12,498 12,314 12,500 Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 252 339 300 Total Tobacco 45,427 48,122 49,000 Turkey Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 1,700 1,700 1,700 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 200,000 220,000 235,000 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 4,880 5,350 6,000 Total Tobacco 206,580 227,050 242,700 United States Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 197,922 259,610 NA Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 338,660 400,760 NA Unmfg., Dark Fire Cured 17,776 19,914 NA Unmfg., Light Air Cured 8,135 8,380 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air & Sun C 3,886 4,343 NA Unmfg.,Dark Air Cured,C 9,001 8,175 NA Total Tobacco 575,380 701,182 NA Zimbabwe Tobacco, Unmfg., Burley 10,259 6,175 8,000 Tobacco, Unmfg., Orient 31 31 42 Tobacco,Unmfg.,Flue Cur 198,752 201,550 235,500 Total Tobacco 209,042 207,756 243,542 December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
CITRUS PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
Northern Hemisphere citrus production in 1996/97 is forecast to be about the same as last season's output. Significant increases in production in the United States, China, and Turkey will offset expected declines in Italy, Spain, Morocco, Japan, and Mexico. Citrus production during 1995/96 in selected countries of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres has been revised to 66.05 million tons, up 3 percent from the June forecast (WAP 06-96), because of increases in China, Italy, Mexico, and Morocco.
The preliminary 1996/97 forecast for Northern Hemisphere citrus production is 44.62 million tons, down slightly from 1995/96. Northern Hemisphere orange production for 1996/97 is forecast at 24.98 million tons, down 2 percent from 1995/96 because of declines in Italy, Mexico, and Spain. Tangerine production is projected at 11.79 million tons, virtually unchanged from 1995/96. Grapefruit production is forecast at 3.72 million tons, up 8 percent from 1995/96 because of a significant increase in the United States. Lemon production is forecast down 2 percent, to 2.63 million tons, because of smaller crops in Greece and Italy. Production of other citrus, mostly limes, is forecast to increase 5 percent, to 1.50 million tons, due to substantially larger output in Mexico.
United States: Citrus production for 1996/97 is forecast at 15.56 million tons, up 7 percent from last season, bolstered by record production of oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines. The orange crop is forecast at a record 11.33 million tons, up 6 percent from last season and up 5 percent from the previous record set in 1979/80. Record production of early and mid-season and Valencia oranges in Florida is expected. U.S. production of grapefruit is forecast at an all-time high of 2.76 million tons, up 12 percent from 1995/96 and up slightly from the previous record of 2.75 million tons harvested during the 1976/77 season. In Florida, an increase in bearing tree numbers and higher yields per tree will contribute to the anticipated record crop.
China: Orange and tangerine crops in China for 1996/97 are forecast up 6 percent, to an all-time high of 1.84 and 5.86 million tons, respectively. In a broad belt across several southern China provinces, citrus plantings are being encouraged as an income-enhancement program for farmers with small land holdings. A World Bank loan is being used to develop a "citrus belt" in the upper Yangtze Valley in Sichuan, Hubei, and Hunan Provinces. Most new plantings are tangerines, although in Jiangxi Province, one prefecture is promoting plantings of navel oranges. In Guangxi Province, the area planted to pomelos is expanding rapidly.
Cuba: Citrus output in 1996/97 is forecast at 600,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from 1995/96. The preliminary forecast by the Cuban Government had put citrus production at 700,000 tons because of improved orchard care and favorable weather. However, in mid-October, Hurricane Lili--reportedly the worst storm in 60 years--hit Cuba's main citrus areas. The hurricane downed large amounts of fruit, but did not significantly damage trees.
Mexico: Citrus production for 1996/97 is forecast at 4.09 million tons, down 3 percent from last year. Orange output is forecast at 2.8 million tons, down 7 percent from 1995/96 because of dry weather. The drought--which ended with the onset of heavy rains in September--affected the northern states of Mexico, reducing yields. In Veracruz, one of the main orange-producing areas, there has been almost no increase in the area planted to oranges. The small amount of new plantings to date have been offset by a rise in the number of growers abandoning their groves because of high production costs. The rate of growth in other production areas also has been slow due to the lack of credit and problems associated with marketing the fruit.
Spain: Citrus production for 1996/97 is forecast at 4.01 million tons, down 10 percent from 1995/96. About 20 percent of the citrus crop in Valencia--the most important producing region--has been affected by the tristeza virus and the citrus miner pest. Fruit quality and sizes are reportedly good for the citrus crop this season because of plentiful September rains.
Spain's orange crop is forecast down 12 percent in 1996/97, to 2.15 million tons. Lemon output is forecast at 435,000 tons, off 2,000 tons from last season. Slight declines in the area planted to oranges and lemons are due, in part, to the ongoing transition to tangerine production (mainly clementines) because of strong demand in both domestic and foreign markets. However, tangerine production during the 1996/97 season is forecast down 10 percent because approximately 92 percent of the tangerine crop is located in the Levant area which has been adversely affected by disease and pest problems.
Italy: Citrus production in 1996/97 is forecast at 2.60 million tons, down 25 percent from 1995/96 because heavy rains caused significant fruit drop. The inclement weather also contributed to a higher incidence of pest damage. Despite the weather-related reductions reported for all citrus crops this season, future production increases are expected. The area planted to orange groves continues to expand gradually--reaching an estimated 112,000 hectares in 1996/97-- in response to new investments in early and late-season varieties, such as navels and Valencia Late oranges. The area under tangerine cultivation also is estimated up in 1996/97, to 33,000 hectares, due to greater demand for clementines. Lemon area is expected to remain stable in the short term at 38,000 hectares.
Japan: Citrus production for 1996/97 is projected at 1.62 million tons, 8 percent lower than last season. Tangerine production (mostly satsumas--Mikan variety), which constitutes over 90 percent of Japan's citrus output, is forecast down 9 percent from last season. This is primarily because of poor flowering and pollination caused by cold weather during the early-spring months as well as fruit drop during the summer. The area harvested for all tangerine varieties is expected to decline 3 percent from last year, to 77,490 hectares, reflecting a steady trend to reduce tangerine acreage.
Egypt: Citrus production in Egypt is forecast to increase 3 percent in 1996/97, to 2.20 million tons. Oranges constitute 73 percent of Egypt's citrus pack and are the single largest fruit crop in the country. In 1996/97, orange production is projected to increase 3 percent, to 1.61 million tons, because of favorable weather and a 3-percent increase in harvested area. Egypt's tangerine output is forecast at 258,000 tons, virtually unchanged from last season.
Greece: The 1996/97 citrus crop is forecast at 1.06 million tons, down 2 percent from 1995/96 because of higher-than-normal rainfall during blossoming and fruit setting. The orange crop, which comprises over 80 percent of Greece's total citrus output, is forecast to decline 2 percent in 1996/97, to 850,000 tons. Given the current conditions, further reductions are likely in the coming years as old orchards are not replaced at the same rate at which they are removed and irrigation water remains limited.
South Korea: Tangerine production is forecast to decline to 550,000 tons in 1996/97, compared to 615,000 tons last season, because of frost during the spring blossom period. Planted area in 1996/97 is forecast at 25,500 hectares, up 6 percent from 1995/96. However, producers in the island province of Cheju-do where, most of the tangerines are grown, continue to remove marginal land from production and thin out trees in an effort to improve quality.
Morocco: Citrus production in 1996/97 is forecast at 1.14 million tons, down 21 percent from 1995/96 due to heavy rains and flooding that disrupted the harvest of Moroc-Late oranges, and the biennial downturn in the alternate bearing cycle of Morocco's citrus trees. Orange production is forecast at 780,000 tons, down 23 percent from last year. Tangerines are forecast down 15 percent, to 330,000 tons, from 389,000 in 1995/96. Morocco's citrus production is dominated by navel and Maroc-Late variety oranges and clementine tangerines.
Turkey: Production of citrus fruits is forecast to increase 15 percent in 1996/97, to 2.05 million tons, rebounding from last season's heat-reduced crop. In addition, slight increases in the number of bearing tangerine, lemon, and grapefruit trees contributed to the upturn in output. Production increases forecast for 1996/97 are as follows: oranges, up 19 percent, to 1.0 million tons; tangerines, up 16 percent, to 520,000; lemons, up 7 percent, to 450,000; and grapefruit, 23 percent, to 80,000. Preliminary assessments indicate that Turkey has the capacity to double it's citrus area and farmers are expected to continue to shift out of field crops into citrus because of higher producer returns, particularly in the main citrus-growing area of Cukurova--located in southeastern Turkey.
Citrus production in the Southern Hemisphere for 1995/96 (harvested in 1996) has been revised downward slightly, to 21.18 million tons. This is off slightly from the June forecast of 21.26 million tons (WAP 06-96) and the 1994/95 estimate of 21.25 million.
Brazil: Production in Brazil's Sao Paulo commercial citrus zone is forecast at 14.40 million tons (353 million boxes), down 1 percent from the June forecast. The harvest has proceeded steadily with fruit drop and rainfall at normal levels. The decline in output is related to the lower level of input use (fertilizers, insecticides, and fungicides) during the 1994/95 season. Many financially-strapped producers are facing cashflow problems and are having difficulty accessing credit. Also, the dismantling of the master contract between producers and orange-processing plants has prevented many producers from receiving the customary cash advances.
Argentina: Citrus production dropped off 11 percent in 1996, to 1.79 million tons. Prolonged drought in some citrus-producing areas, and freezes in others, contributed to the decrease in total output. Oranges were the most affected crop, plummeting 9 percent from the June estimate and 19 percent from 1995, to 580,000 tons.
South Africa: Total citrus production for 1996 has been revised upward 7 percent from the June estimate, to 1.17 million tons. New plantings coming into bearing and abundant, beneficial rains boosted output.
Australia: Australia's 1996 citrus estimate remains unchanged
from the June estimate at 581,000 tons. Kelly Kirby
Strzelecki, Horticulture Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-6791
CITRUS PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (1,000 Metric tons) 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1/ China Oranges 1,633 1,727 1,836 Tangerines 4,423 5,509 5,857 Total 6,056 7,236 7,693 Cuba Oranges 350 380 350 Tangerines 6 6 6 Grapefruit 230 250 230 Citrus, other 14 14 14 Total 600 650 600 Cyprus 3/ Oranges 166 170 165 Grapefruit 95 108 90 Lemons 40 38 33 Total 301 316 288 Egypt Oranges 1,513 1,555 1,608 Tangerines 250 256 258 Citrus, other 303 334 335 Total 2,066 2,145 2,201 Gaza Strip 3/ Oranges 87 87 87 Grapefruit 9 9 9 Lemons 8 8 8 Total 104 104 104 Greece Oranges 930 870 850 Tangerines 84 84 85 Lemons 137 130 125 Total 1,151 1,084 1,060 Israel 3/ Oranges 405 472 472 Tangerines 117 125 125 Grapefruit 415 395 395 Lemons 26 20 20 Citrus,Other 40 40 40 Total 1,003 1,052 1,052 Italy Oranges 1,800 2,200 1,515 Tangerines 468 528 460 Grapefruit 5 4 3 Lemons 565 699 610 Citrus, othe 15 14 7 Total 2,853 3,445 2,595 Japan Oranges 30 26 27 Tangerines 1,539 1,626 1,487 Citrus, other 114 110 109 Total 1,683 1,762 1,623 Korea, South Tangerines 549 615 550 December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., USDA, FAS CITRUS PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (1,000 Metric tons) 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1/ Mexico Oranges 3,570 3,000 2,800 Tangerines 192 170 170 Grapefruit 160 145 150 Lemons 11 11 11 Citrus, other 961 880 960 Total 4,894 4,206 4,091 Morocco Oranges 657 1,013 780 Tangerines 304 389 330 Lemons 20 20 20 Citrus, othe 14 14 6 Total 995 1,436 1,136 Spain Oranges 2,697 2,434 2,153 Tangerines 1,784 1,563 1,414 Lemons 545 437 435 Citrus, othe 14 11 12 Total 5,040 4,445 4,014 Turkey Oranges 920 840 1,000 Tangerines 430 450 520 Grapefruit 60 65 80 Lemons 470 420 450 Total 1,880 1,775 2,050 United States Oranges 10,474 10,723 11,333 Tangerines 389 415 532 Grapefruit 2,642 2,466 2,759 Lemons 814 900 921 Citrus, othe 9 12 15 Total 14,328 14,516 15,560 TOTAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE Oranges 25,232 25,497 24,976 Tangerines 10,535 11,736 11,794 Grapefruit 3,616 3,442 3,716 Lemons 2,636 2,683 2,633 Citrus, othe 1,484 1,429 1,498 Total 43,503 44,787 44,617 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Argentina Oranges 712 580 NA Tangerines 344 315 NA Grapefruit 208 190 NA Lemons 741 700 NA Total 2,005 1,785 NA Australia Oranges 416 543 NA Lemons 32 38 NA Total 448 581 NA December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div. USDA, FAS CITRUS PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (1,000 Metric tons) 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1/ Brazil Oranges 16,520 16,360 NA Tangerines 8/ 560 535 NA Lemons 8/ 67 70 NA Citrus, othe 665 673 NA Total 17,812 17,638 NA South Africa 9/ Oranges 770 930 NA Grapefruit 154 172 NA Lemons 63 71 NA Total 987 1,173 NA TOTAL SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Oranges 18,418 18,413 NA Tangerines 904 850 NA Grapefruit 362 362 NA Lemons 903 879 NA Citrus, other 665 673 NA Total 21,252 21,177 NA GRAND TOTAL Oranges 43,650 43,910 NA Tangerines 11,439 12,586 NA Grapefruit 3,978 3,804 NA Lemons 3,539 3,562 NA Citrus, othe 2,149 2,102 NA Total 64,755 65,964 NA
1/ Crop year refers to the harvest period which usually begins in the fall and extends through the spring. This corresponds roughly to October-June in the Northern Hemisphere and April-December in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Southern Hemisphere, harvest occurs almost entirely during the second year shown. The harvest of lemons and limes and limes usually begins earlier and often extends throughout the year.
2/ Mostly limes but some sour oranges and other varieties.
3/ Estimates for 1995/96 carried forward to 1996/97.
4/ Mostly bergamots.
5/ Summer oranges (Natsu mikan or Natsu daidai, a hybrid of mandari with sour orange or pomelo).
7/ Sour oranges.
8/ State of Sao Paulo only.
9/ Includes small quantities from Swaziland, Zimbabwe and Mozambiqu, which are marketed through the South African Citrus Board.
December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., USDA, FAS[images/footer.html]